December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
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Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action
The mandate of the 1267 Committee (Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions) Monitoring Team expires on 31 December. The 1373 Committee (Counter-Terrorism Committee, or CTC) is expected to submit an updated global implementation survey in December.

It is expected that the Council will renew the mandate of the 1267 Committee Monitoring Team and members will be discussing leadership of the Commitees for 2010. (With Costa Rica and Croatia leaving the Council new chairs will be required for the 1540 Committee and the CTC.) At press time no further action was expected in December. However, at press time, an Arria formula meeting on human rights and counter-terrorism organised by Mexico was expected on 30 November.

Key Recent Developments
The chairs of the 1267 Committee, the CTC and the 1540 Committee (non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism) briefed the Council on 13 November in an open debate. They brief jointly twice each year.

The Chair of the CTC, Ambassador Ranko Vilović (Croatia), delivered a joint statement for the three Committees. He said the Committees’ expert groups (the 1267 Committee Monitoring Team, the CTC Executive Directorate or CTED, and the 1540 Committee Experts) had made progress in increasing cooperation and coordination, and were continuing their efforts in this area. Since the last joint briefing of the Committees in May, the expert groups had worked to develop common strategies, conducted joint workshops and country visits and met regularly in New York. The Committee chairs and expert groups also participated in the comprehensive review meeting of the 1540 Committee from 30 September to 2 October.

Vilović reported that the CTC had continued its stocktaking exercise and had nearly completed analysis and adoption of Preliminary Implementation Assessments (PIAs) for member states. (PIAs provide an assessment of each country’s approach to counter-terrorism and its implementation of resolution 1373, based on information from the country and other sources. They are distributed only to the country concerned.)

The files of 46 states have been finalised as part of this process, and the current stocktaking exercise is expected to be completed in 2010. The CTC continued to facilitate technical assistance and to conduct visits to member states. Vilović also reported that CTED had submitted an updated global survey of implementation to the Committee. The survey, which is based on information from the PIAs, assesses the implementation of resolution 1373 by region and subregion, and contains recommendations for future action by the Committee. Vilović said the global survey of implementation is currently before the Committee and should be submitted to the Council before the end of 2009.

The Chair of the 1267 Committee, Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting (Austria), reported that a main focus of the Committee’s work was the review of names on its Consolidated List. Four out of five batches of names have been sent by the Committee to designating states and states of nationality and/or residency to confirm that listings are accurate and remain appropriate. The review of 422 out of 488 names has been initiated. The remaining 66 names were expected to be sent to reviewing states in the near future. Of the 71 names put on the Committee’s agenda for discussion after responses were received, fifty have been confirmed to remain appropriate, eight have been delisted and 13 are pending. Mayr-Harting said timely replying by states was needed for the Committee to be able to meet the designated completion date of 30 June 2010.

The threat from Al-Qaida and the Taliban has persisted and evolved said Mayr-Harting, requiring that the regime be made as dynamic and accurate as possible. He identified remaining challenges with regard to the Consolidated List. Some entries with too few identifiers and a number of deceased persons remain on the list, and there has been increasing criticism from states and individuals about due process and human rights concerns, with about thirty related court cases around the world. He hoped that the new resolution renewing the mandate of the Monitoring Team, due at the end of 2009, would address these challenges.

The Chair of the 1540 Committee, Ambassador Jorge Urbina (Costa Rica), said the Committee continued to conduct its comprehensive review and planned to report on the outcome to the Council by 31 January 2010. States and international organisations had been invited to provide input regarding the impact of the resolution, regional analysis of implementation, assistance efforts and methods to address gaps in implementation. The Committee has continued its outreach and assistance activities.

Human Rights-Related Developments

The 30 November Arria formula meeting on human rights and counter-terrorism organised by Mexico aims to sponsor an exchange of views on how to improve respect for human rights while strengthening the international response to terrorism. A number of topics are planned for discussion, including improving the listing and delisting of individuals on the Consolidated List. Invited speakers include Mary Robinson and Hina Jilani, who were part of an independent panel of the International Commission of Jurists assessing the impact of counter-terrorism on human rights. Other invitees include the expert groups of the counter-terrorism Committees, the Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Key Issue
A key issue for the Council will be the question of due process with regard to the 1267 Consolidated List and the mechanism for listing and delisting names. Substantive improvements that address such concerns—without impeding implementation of the resolution—is a significant challenge that has eluded the Council for several years.

Council and Wider Dynamics
There seems to be wide recognition among members that the due process concerns are serious and need to be addressed. Many agree that the occasion of the Monitoring Team mandate renewal could provide a good opportunity to refine and improve procedures. However, there is no consensus yet on the form such refinement should take. The US has the lead on drafting the renewal resolution, and may circulate a draft to Council members in late November. Given that the regime is detailed and complex, members expect that the negotiation could take much of December.

Some members are optimistic that significant improvements are possible. Members with a traditionally conservative approach to changing the regime seem to recognise that they also have a strong interest in ensuring its credibility.

With regard to the CTC’s global survey of implementation, Committee members recognise that a substantial amount of effort was required to produce the survey. However, there appears to be a recognition, with the benefit of hindsight, that the practical utility of the current regional approach may not be as great as was assumed at the outset. This is unlikely to affect the form of the survey submitted to the Council in December. Nonetheless some Committee members feel that an alternative format for the survey should be considered for the future, perhaps in the form of a shorter thematic document or one including more country-specific information, with the aim of providing a more practical and useful resource for analysts and donors.

Selected

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UN Documents

Selected Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1822 (30 June 2008) extended the mandate of the 1267 Monitoring Team until 31 December 2009.
  • S/RES/1540 (28 April 2004) established the 1540 Committee and its mandate.
  • S/RES/1373 (28 September 2001) established the CTC and its mandate.
  • S/RES/1267 (15 October 1999) established the Al-Qaida and Taliban Committee and its mandate.

Selected Meeting Record

  • S/PV.6217 and Resumption 1 (13 November 2009) was the latest briefing by the chairmen of the three terrorism-related Council Committees.

Other

  • S/2009/502 (28 September 2009) was the letter to the Council transmitting the tenth report of the 1267 Monitoring Team.

Other Relevant Facts

Committee Chairs

  • Ambassador Ranko Vilović (Croatia): CTC
  • Ambassador Jorge Urbina (Costa Rica): 1540 Committee
  • Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting (Austria): 1267 Committee

Useful Additional Sources

Full forecast

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