December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
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Overview

Burkina Faso will have the Council presidency in December. An open debate is planned for 8 December on the topic of drug trafficking as a threat to international security to be presided by the Foreign Minister of Burkina Faso, Alain Yoda. Although the debate was initially inspired by linked drugs and security problems in West Africa, it is expected to take a global approach and look at the drugs and security nexus in various parts of the world.

December is always a very busy month. Nine mandates will expire. Renewal resolutions are expected on the following six mandates:

  • The UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP). (The Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Alexander Downer, and the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Deputy Special Adviser and Head of UNFICYP, Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, are expected to provide briefings.)
  • The UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF).
  • The UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC, complex negotiations on the resolution seem likely.)
  • The UN Integrated Office in Burundi (BINUB, a briefing by the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and head of BINUB, Youssef Mahmoud is likely.)
  • Sanctions in Liberia and the mandate of the Liberia Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts.
  • The Monitoring Team of the 1267 Committee (Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions, the mandate expires on 31 December and it is expected that the Council will renew it and perhaps address wider issues as well.)

The mandate of the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Central African Republic (BONUCA) also expires in December but no renewal is required. It is to be succeeded by a UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in CAR (BINUCA) on 1 January 2010, and the decision to create BINUCA was approved in a presidential statement in April. The Council will be briefed and will hold consultations on progress in CAR. In a similar vein, the mandate of the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) also expires in December. It will be succeeded by the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) with an initial mandate of 12 months. Again no action is required in December because UNIOGBIS was authorised by resolution 1876 in June 2009.

The Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) and its independent auditor, the International Advisory and Monitoring Board(IAMB), including immunity provisions relating to the DFI (which prevent creditors from being able to seize Iraqi funds or oil shipments) will also expire. At time of writing it was unclear what action might follow.

The Council is also expected to discuss the terms of office of permanent judges of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR) who are members of the appeals chamber. Their mandates do not expire until 31 December 2010, but the presidents of the Tribunals are seeking an extension beyond that date for advance planning and efficiency purposes. It remains to be seen whether these will be approved. The Council is, however, expected to adopt resolutions approving requests from the Tribunals to extend until 31 December 2010 authorisations to exceed the maximum number of ad litem judges allowed by their statutes and extend the mandates of two ICTY ad litem judges which expire on 31 December 2009.

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of its Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa which expires on 31 December. However, it seems that this will not be done in a formal meeting.

The Council is expecting a number of briefings:

  • Early in the month, it will be briefed by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo.
  • The presidents and prosecutors of ICTY and ICTR are expected to brief the Council on implementation of the Tribunals’ completion strategies.
  • The Council will also receive its monthly briefing on the Middle East, followed by informal consultations.
  • The chair of the Sanctions Committee on Iran (the 1737 Committee) is expected to brief the Council in December. A briefing is also possible regarding the latest IAEA report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions.
  • The chair of the SudanSanctions Committee (the 1591 Committee) is also expected to brief.
  • On the initiative of the AU, the Council may also be briefed on the findings of the AU Panel on Darfur, by the Panel’s head, former South African President Thabo Mbeki.
  • There is likely to be the end-of-the-year briefing by the chairpersons of the Council subsidiary bodies.
  • A briefing on the work of the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) by the Secretary-General Special Representative Kai Eide is also possible, though is perhaps more likely for January.

Informal consultations are expected on the work of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (1373 Committee) and the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate.

Full forecast

 

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