• Print
• Share

EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action
In December, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, Alexander Downer, and the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Deputy Special Adviser and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP), Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, are expected to brief Council members in informal consultations.

In addition to a report on UNFICYP from the Secretary-General, due by 1 December, the Council is expecting a separate report from the Special Adviser on the ongoing UN facilitated unification talks between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat.

The Council is expected to renew UNFICYP’s mandate for another six months. The mandate expires on 15 December. (For more details on historical background to the Cyprus problem, please see our 4 September 2008 Special Research Report on Cyprus.)

Key Recent Developments
Talks between Christofias and Talat have intensified recently, with the pace of meetings accelerated to twice a week. On 6 August the two sides concluded the first reading of all major issues under discussion. (Negotiations focus on seven main areas: governance and power sharing; property issues; EU matters; economy; division of territory; security arrangements and guarantees; and citizenship, immigration and asylum issues.) The second round of fully-fledged negotiations commenced on 10 September.

In September and October negotiations focused mainly on governance, in particular election of the president and vice-president of a united Cyprus. On 17 September, Downer said talks were going well and expressed cautious optimism.

At the end of October Christofias and Talat started discussing property rights (considered among the most difficult issues) and the competencies of a federal government, including external relations. On 30 October, speaking in Brussels before an EU summit, Christofias gave a pessimistic assessment of progress.

Property issues were the focus of much of the negotiations between the two sides also in November. Following a meeting on 20 November focusing on organisational matters, discussions moved on to citizenship, immigration and asylum issues on 24 November.

In his statement in the General Assembly’s general debate on 24 September, Christofias said there had been some progress in the negotiations, but not enough to express confidence about a positive outcome. He stressed that any solution would have to come from the Cypriots themselves and that outside pressure and artificial deadlines were unacceptable. While criticising Turkey for its role in the conflict, he also expressed willingness to engage in a dialogue with Turkish leaders. (A letter to the Secretary-General from Talat responding to Christofias’s statement was circulated as an official UN document on 10 November at the request of Turkey.)

Also on 24 September, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said in the general debate that the Secretary-General should play a role in “bridging the differences which the parties themselves cannot resolve” and that a solution should be submitted to a referendum in the spring of 2010 at the latest. He stressed that if agreement was not reached, normalisation of the status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus would become a “necessity”.

On 5 November, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Cyprus and met Foreign Minister Marcos Kyprianou. After the meeting Lavrov stressed that it was up to the two sides to find a solution and that the international community should not impose any solution or artificial timeframes.

On 10 November the UK government renewed an offer, first made in 2003 to the UN, to cede just under half of its sovereign territory in Cyprus on the condition that the two sides agree to reunify the island. Following a meeting on 11 November with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London, Christofias said he “noted positively” the initiative.

From 22-25 November the UK Minister for Europe, Chris Bryant visited Cyprus and met with Christofias, Kyprianou and Zerihoun. Ahead of his visit Bryant said the current negotiations represented a “golden opportunity” to solve the Cyprus problem and should not be missed.

According to media reports on 19 November, Erdoğan had proposed in a letter to the Secretary-General a five-party summit on Cyprus involving the two Cypriot parties, Turkey, Greece and the UK, with the aim of speeding up progress towards a solution. This was rejected by Christofias who said strict timeframes and arbitration were unacceptable.

Key Issues
A key issue is whether the current negotiations are headed in a positive direction. Many observers are concerned that the elections in Northern Cyprus scheduled for April 2010 could lead to less flexible positions. If negotiations fail, some fear that indeed partition will soon become a reality. A related issue for the Council is how best to encourage the negotiations.

Another central issue is the future of UNFICYP and when to begin discussions on an exit strategy for the mission or a further drawdown in the broader context of Council efforts to overhaul peacekeeping activities. The Secretary-General observed in his last report that he would present recommendations on adjustments to the mission as appropriate, taking into account developments on the ground. It remains to be seen whether his forthcoming report will address this.

A further issue is the lack of progress on confidence-building measures. While 23 such measures have been identified by bicommunal technical committees, only four are being implemented. An agreement by the two sides on 26 June to open the Limnitis/Yesilirmak crossing point in northwest Cyprus was seen as an important potential breakthrough but has yet to be implemented.

Options
The most likely option for the Council in December is a resolution renewing UNFICYP’s mandate without change for six months and urging the parties to intensify efforts to reach an agreement on a comprehensive solution.

Council and Wider Dynamics
Only limited information has emerged from the negotiation process and Council members are eager to hear Downer’s assessment of the situation. While Downer has given some positive signals, the parties themselves have often resorted to negative rhetoric in their public statements. Some Council members seem concerned that current progress is too slow for the parties to reach agreement before the April elections.

UNFICYP’s mandate renewal is normally discussed among the five permanent Council members before a draft resolution is presented to elected Council members. While a simple rollover is expected, supporters of either side are likely to try to influence discussions. France and Russia appear to share the Greek Cypriots’ concern about “artificial deadlines” and emphasise the need for Turkey to play a more constructive role. The UK seems concerned about the consequences of failure to reach agreement before the April elections and has in the past insisted on the need for contingency planning for UNFICYP depending on the outcome of talks. The Greek Cypriots are sensitive to any changes to the mandate, seeing UNFICYP as a counterweight to the Turkish military presence on the northern part of the island.

Turkey is expected to vote against UNFICYP’s mandate renewal. It opposed the establishment of UNFICYP in 1964 and in May voted against the renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate in resolution 1873. In its explanation of vote against the renewal, Turkey reiterated its view of the resolution as unacceptable because of its reference to the government of Cyprus as the sole government of the whole island when in reality it does not represent the Turkish Cypriot side.

UK is the lead country on Cyprus.

Selected

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

Additional Useful Resources

• Cyprus: Reunification or Partition, International Crisis Group, September 2009

Full forecast

• Print
• Share

• Share post