December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
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AFRICA

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action
In December, Alan Doss, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and head of MONUC. The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Organization Mission in the DRC (MONUC), due to expire on 31 December. However, Council members are also likely to review some controversial issues including the impact of military operations on the protection of civilians and possible fine tuning of the mandate.

The Secretary-General’s report on MONUC, and the report to the Sanctions Committee from the Group of Experts, will also be part of the discussion.

Key Recent Developments
On 30 November, through resolution 1896 the Council extended the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the Group of Experts for another year.

On 17 November, B. Lynn Pascoe, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, briefed the Council on the Great Lakes region and the impact of the Ugandan rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) attacks on civilians. Subsequently, the Council issued a press statement condemning the continuing LRA attacks on civilians in the region, including the DRC. It also encouraged missions in the region including MONUC, UN Mission in the Sudan, the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur, the UN Peace-Building Office in the Central African Republic and UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad to share information about protection of civilians in light of the LRA attacks.

On 9 November, Olusegun Obasanjo, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes region, briefed the Council on latest political developments related to 23 March peace agreement between the DRC government, Congrès national pour la defénse du peuple,(CNDP) and other armed groups. Progress under the agreement included the transformation of the CNDP and other armed groups into political parties, the voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes and improved relations between the DRC and Rwanda. However, he said that the underlying causes of the conflict must be dealt with, and stressed the need for the establishment of national reconciliation mechanism, reforms to electoral law, good governance, proper control of natural resources, and the political participation of elements of armed groups.

On 2 November, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy visited the DRC including North Kivu, South Kivu and Orientale provinces in eastern DRC. During the visit, Le Roy announced the launch of a joint team of MONUC and the DRC armed forces (FARDC) to investigate massacres of civilians earlier this year in the North Kivu town of Lukweti. He also announced the suspension of MONUC’s support to some units of the DRC armed forces responsible for human rights violations against civilians. He also shared the concerns of the Security Council, that the UN cannot support a unit involved in attacks and human rights violations against civilians.

On 27 October, rebels from the Rwandan Hutu militias known as the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda, FDLR) ambushed a civilian vehicle in Rutshuru, North Kivu, killing ten civilians.

On 15 November, the US provided $17 million to support Kinshasa in its efforts to end sexual violence against women. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a pledge of financial and logistical support during her recent visit to a refugee camp in eastern DRC, where she met with rape victims.

On 17 November, the German authorities arrested two FDLR leaders, Ignace Murwanashyaka and Straton Musoni, on suspicion of crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in eastern DRC. In 2005, Murwanashyaka was blacklisted by the UN for violating an arms embargo in the DRC and was subjected to a travel bans and assets freeze. In addition, in resolution 1804, the Secretary-General encouraged member states to take measures against leaders from FDLR residing in their countries that continuously support the FDLR armed group.

On 24 November, a trial against two former Congolese rebel leaders for crimes allegedly committed by their militias in eastern DRC in 2003 began in the Hague at the International Criminal Court. Germain Katanga, senior commander from Force de résistance Patriotique en Ituri, faces three counts of crimes against humanity and seven counts of war crimes for a deadly assault on the village of Bogoro, in Ituri province, where hundreds of people were killed and many women were forced into sexual slavery in a February 2003 attack. Also, Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui, former commander of the National Integrationalist Front faces three counts of crimes against humanity and seven of war crimes, and is alleged to have played a key role in designing and carrying out the Bogoro attack.

On 16 October, Alan Doss, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the DRC and head of MONUC, briefed the Council onMONUC’s activities. Since the Council directed MONUC to concentrate on civilian protection in its last mandate renewal, the mission has focused on identifying protection hotspots. It has created mobile operating bases to allow the mission to respond to the changing military environment, and also expanded into areas in the Kivus and LRA-affected areas.

Doss referred to the Integrated Strategic Framework, as requested by the Council in December 2008 in resolution 1856. The Framework has allowed MONUC and the UN country team to jointly respond to priorities that do not fall directly under MONUC’s mandate, but are of concern to the wider UN system. The UN Country team’s initiatives include strategies to combat sexual violence and ensure the protection of civilians, a stabilization programme for eastern DRC, and a multidimensional approach to dealing with the FDLR.

During the Council’s open debate on 16 October, the DRC Ambassador to the UN conveyed his government’s wish for the UN to scale down gradually, noting a timetable for the disengagement of UN troops while at the same time, also providing support to Congolese government to ensure security and strengthen the rule of law.

The upcoming Secretary-General’s report will give an update on the UN Framework outlining MONUC’s tasks while it focuses its activities in the eastern part of the country. The report will also update on the mission’s plan to consolidate the agreement reached between the DRC and Rwanda and provide information on activities carried out by MONUC including:

  • securing areas cleared of FDLR presence (the Kivus and Orientale) to ensure civilian protection and allow IDPs to return;
  • completing operations against remaining FDLR strongholds while keeping in mind protection of civilians;
  • accelerating stabilisation efforts, giving priority to mining sites to deprive armed elements of revenue;
  • increasing efforts to discipline the FARDC and national police, as this is critical to protection; and
  • supporting measures to end impunity.

The Secretary-General’s reports in June and September also noted that MONUC and the UN country team plan to develop a strategy for the DRC, which includes timeliness and responsibilities, which will incorporate the mission’s strategic work-plan and include a system-wide concept of civilian protection.

Human Rights-Related Development

The Human Rights Council will conduct its Universal Periodic Review of the DRC during its December session this year. The HRC will be aware of the outcome of the investigations conducted in October 2009 by Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial executions. Alston found that scores of civilians had been killed and terrorised in eastern DRC this year by government soldiers and the FDLR. The killings took place during ongoing joint MONUC-FARDC operations against the FDLR. Human Rights Watch documented the deliberate killing by Congolese soldiers of at least 270 civilians in North Kivu province since March. Addressing the Security Council on 11 November, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights called for a review of support by the UN peacekeeping mission for the DRC armed forces whenever there is a risk of violation of humanitarian and human rights law.

Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is whether now to begin planning for MONUC’s eventual withdrawal.

Another issue is better steering MONUC so as to fully implement its current civilian protection mandate. A related issue is establishing stronger incentives for the DRC government to effectively implement vetting mechanisms for reintegrated ex-rebels in order to keep the worst human rights abusers out of its armed forces.

A related question is the security situation, and whether to focus on consolidating peace or encouraging the DRC authorities to take military measures against FDLR and other rebels in the eastern part of the country.

Options

Options for the Council include:

  • a simple renewal of the current mandate for another year;
  • renewing the current mandate for six months signaling this is the first step towards a plan for drawdown of the mission;
  • modifying the mandate for an initial six months to address the various issues described above; and
  • focus the mandate on the protection of civilians (with clarity on specific roles for MONUC and the DRC government) and include elements for stabilisation by removing armed groups, strengthen security sector reform, better governance, the implementation of an effective vetting mechanism in FARDC, some limitations on support to FARDC and for enforcement of the arms embargo.

Council Dynamics
Council Members seem agreed that there is a need to adopt a clearer and more achievable mandate focusing on protection of civilians with appropriate resources.

However, there is also a growing recognition that the time has come to signal an intention to evaluate MONUC in light of the security situation in the DRC after a shortened mandate term of six months. Some members seem interested in supporting in 2010 a shift of the mission towards integrating peacebuilding with peacekeeping efforts

The Council’s presidential statement on 5 August noted the need to harmonize the approach to peacekeeping and the implementation of protection of civilian while reviewing mandates.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1896 (30 November 2009) extended the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the Group of Experts for another year.
  • S/RES/1857 (22 December 2008) renewed the sanctions regime and extended the Group of Expert’s mandate to 30 November.
  • S/RES/1856 (22 December 2008) renewed MONUC’s mandate.
  • S/RES/1843 (20 November 2008) authorised the temporary deployment of an additional 3,085 troops to reinforce MONUC’s capacity.
  • S/RES/1807(31 March 2008) lifted the arms embargo for government forces, strengthened measures related to aviation and customs.

Latest Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2009/24 (5 August 2009) was on UN peacekeeping operations.
  • S/PRST/2008/48 (22 December 2008) welcomed regional efforts to address the security threat posed by the LRA.
  • S/PRST/2008/40 (29 October 2008) condemned the offensive by the CNDP in eastern DRC and noted the request for reinforcement of MONUC.
  • S/PRST/2008/38 (21 October 2008) expressed concern about the resurgence of violence in eastern DRC and requested a comprehensive analysis of the situation.

Secretary-General’s Reports

Other

  • SC/9791 (17 November 2009) was Council’s statement on the LRA.
  • S/PV.6215 (9 November 2009) was the verbatim record briefing by the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on the Great Lakes, Olusegun Obasanjo.
  • S/PV.6203 (16 October 2009) was the verbatim record briefing by the Secretary-General’s Representative, Alan Doss.
  • SC/9703(10 July 2009) was the Council;s press release on the DRC.
  • S/PV.6159 (10 July 2009) was the verbatim record of the briefing by Doss.
  • S/2009/253 (14 May 2009) was the latest report of the Group of Experts on the DRC.
  • SC/9608 (3 March 2009) was the press release on the addition of four individuals to the assets freeze and travel ban list by the DRC Sanctions Committee.
  • S/2009/105 (19 February 2009) was the letter from the Secretary-General on the revised concept of operations and rules of engagement for MONUC.
  • S/2009/52 (27 January 2009) was a letter from the Secretary-General about difficulties being encountered in attempts to secure additional troops and capacities for MONUC.
  • SC/9576 (16 January 2009) expressed concern about LRA activities.
  • S/2008/791 (15 December 2008) was the response from Rwanda to the accusations of the DRC Group of Experts
  • S-8/1 (1 December 2008) was a resolution on DRC adopted by the Special Session of the Human Rights Council.

Other Relevant Facts

Chairman of the DRC Sanctions Committee

Ambassador Ertuğrul Apakan (Turkey)

Group of Experts

  • Christian B. Dietrich, USA (aviation)
  • Claudio Gramizzi, Italy (arms)
  • Dinesh Mahtani, UK (finance expert and coordinator)
  • Mouctar Kokouma Diallo, Guinea (customs expert)
  • Raymond Debelle, Belgium (regional expert)

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Alan Doss (UK)

MONUC Interim Force Commander

Lieutenant General Babacar Gaye (Senegal)

Size, Composition and Cost of Mission

  • Strength as of 30 September 2009: 18,606 troops, 692 military observers, 1,088 police, 1,006 international civilian personnel and 2,539 local civilian staff, 615 UN volunteers
  • Approved budget (1 July 2009-30 June 2010): $1,350.00 million

Duration

30 November 1999 to present; mandate expires on 31 December 2009

Full forecast

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