Iran
Council members seem likely in December to discuss the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions.
In addition it seems that the chair of the sanctions committee on Iran (the 1737 Committee) will brief the Council on 10 December.
Key Recent Developments
On 20 November representatives from the E3+3 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US) met in Brussels and urged Iran to accept the offer to process its low-enriched uranium in Russia and France for use in the Tehran Research Reactor. This would provide more time for negotiations by delaying the point at which Iran could potentially construct a nuclear weapon.
IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei also urged Iran to accept the current offer, while advising that imposing additional sanctions against Iran would be counterproductive.
On 18 November Iran’s position became more unclear when Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki suggested that Iran might not allow its low-enriched uranium to be taken out of the country for further processing.
The latest IAEA report on nuclear safeguards and Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions was sent to the IAEA’s Board of Governors on 16 November, in advance of its 26 November meeting in Vienna. It seems that the report will estimate that Iran has produced 924 kilograms of low-enriched uranium between November 2008 and October 2009. The IAEA had previously verified that 839 kilograms of low-enriched uranium were produced from the beginning of enrichment activity in February 2007 to November 2008. This would bring the total amount produced by Iran to 1,763 kilograms. According to nuclear experts, if diverted for further enrichment, this amount of low-enriched uranium could produce sufficient highly enriched uranium for one or two nuclear weapons.
IAEA inspectors visited the recently-disclosed nuclear facility north of the Iranian city of Qom from 26-27 October. Iran notified the IAEA on 21 September that this uranium-enrichment plant was under construction. The IAEA report notes that commercially available satellite imagery and extensive information supplied by member states indicated that work on the facility had started earlier than Iran claimed. The IAEA indicated to Iran that the disclosure of the site reopens questions whether other undeclared nuclear sites exist.
The report says Iran’s explanation of the purpose and history of the facility near Qom requires further clarification, and that Iran has not suspended enrichment activities or heavy water related projects as required by Council resolutions.
On 5 November, Israel wrote to the Council complaining that a ship it had intercepted the previous day, the cargo vessel Francop originating in Iran and bound for Syria, had been carrying hundreds of tonnes of arms. The shipment would appear to violate resolution 1747 (2007), which prohibits Iran from exporting arms. The letter recalled that two other ships had been discovered apparently transporting arms from Iran to Syria in 2009 (the Monchegorsk in January and the Hansa India in October). Iran’s national shipping company, IRISL, was involved in all three shipments.
At a 24 September meeting on nuclear issues, the Council unanimously approved resolution 1887 which reaffirmed that the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery are threats to international peace and security. Iran was not mentioned by name. However, the resolution also reaffirmed resolutions related to Iran’s proliferation sensitive nuclear activities, including 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008).
Human Rights-Related Developments
|
On 20 November the General Assembly’s Third Committee, which deals with human rights issues, approved a resolution expressing deep concern at serious ongoing human rights violations in Iran. (The vote was 74 to 48.) The resolution notes a number of grave violations including torture, the high incidence of capital punishment and executions by stoning and denial of basic civil and political rights. It also expressed particular concern over Iran’s response to protests following the June presidential election. On 13 October the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navane Pillay, expressed dismay at the execution of juvenile offenders in Iran and called for changes to Iranian law and practice “to end execution of juvenile offenders once and for all.” Pillay also said that she had serious concerns about the death sentences that had been handed down to three individuals for their involvement in the protests that took place after Iran’s presidential election. Iran’s human rights record will come under scrutiny in the Human Rights Council on 15 February under the Universal Periodic Review process. |
Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is whether in the coming weeks Iran will exhibit any flexibility with regard to the proposal that its low-enriched uranium be further processed outside the country. In the absence of a substantially positive response from Iran, some or all of the five permanent members may want to initiate a discussion in the Council. A wider issue is the question of further sanctions.
-
deferring discussion in the hope that progress on the Iran nuclear issue may still occur in the context of E3+3 negotiations;
-
holding a debate on the IAEA report to allow Council members as a whole to signal their concerns; and
-
attempting to come to agreement on imposing additional Council sanctions on Iran.
Council and Broader Dynamics
Many Council members seem to be hoping that it may still be possible to progress multilateral negotiations with Iran. However, there is a growing sense that the Council will have to consider alternative courses of action if the situation continues to appear stalled in December. Members are concerned that the November IAEA report is consistent with past reports in pointing out Iran’s continuing noncompliance with Council resolutions. Some worry that the revelation of the Qom facility highlights the possibility that other clandestine facilities exist in Iran.
Views diverge on whether additional sanctions against Iran should be the immediate next step. China and Russia are apparently cautious while France, the UK and the US are more open to this option. It is unclear whether Council members as a whole are more open to some intermediate step in December.
There is likely to be a range of views also on how to respond to the interception of the Francop. The fact that its cargo was headed for Syria raises the possibility that it was ultimately bound for Lebanon, which could amount to a violation of the terms of two more Council resolutions: 1701 (2006) regarding Lebanon and 1373 (2001) regarding counterterrorism. While the matter has caused significant concern in the Council, many members think it best that the 1737 Committee on Iran sanctions be left to address it.
Some Council members are stressing that the Francop was the third such shipment in which Iran has been implicated this year. Because of this, and the fact that the Iran state shipping line is already subject to multiple unilateral sanctions for its involvement in prohibited activities, some are now viewing Iran as an emerging “serial violator”. Most members are focusing for now on how negotiations with Iran develop in the coming weeks as this will be critical as the Council and Committee consider how to proceed.
top • full forecast
|
Selected Council Resolutions |
|
|
Latest IAEA Reports |
|
|
Sanctions Committee Chairman |
|
