December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
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AFRICA

Liberia

Expected Council Action
In December the Sanctions Committee on Liberia is expected to consider recommendations from the Panel of Experts tasked with investigating and reporting on implementation of sanctions.

The Council is likely to renew the current sanctions regime for Liberia, which expires on 19 December.

This comprises the arms embargo and travel ban imposed in 2003 by resolution 1521 and renewed in 2008 by resolution 1854. The assets freeze imposed in 2004 by resolution 1532 remains in force and does not require renewal.

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts which expires on 20 December.

Key Recent Developments
On 15 September the Council adopted resolution 1885:

  • extending the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) until 30 September 2010;
  • authorising UNMIL to assist the Liberian government with its preparation for the 2011 general presidential and legislative polls; and
  • endorsing the Secretary-General’s recommendation to implement the third phase of UNMIL’s drawdown.

The Council also requested the Secretary-General to develop and submit a strategic integrated plan to coordinate activity on achieving benchmarks for UNMIL and re-emphasised the need for coherence and integration of peacemaking, peacekeeping, peacebuilding and development in order to respond effectively to post-conflict situations. The Council also asked the Secretary-General to report progress on achieving a coordinated UN approach in the country, especially on critical gaps to achieving peacebuilding objectives. (This was an important practical application of the thinking contained in the Council’s thematic statements (S/PRST/2009/23 and S/PRST/2009/24) on peacebuilding and peacekeeping.)

Through an exchange of letters in late October (S/2009/546 of 19 October 2009 and S/2009/547 of 22 October 2009), Lieutenant General Sikander Afzal from Pakistan was appointed as the new Force Commander of UNMIL, replacing Lieutenant General Zahirul Alam from Bangladesh, whose tour of duty ended.

On 1 November police officers serving with UNMIL helped Liberian police and prison officers foil an attempted mass escape by about fifty prisoners from a prison in Monrovia.

On 16 November the chairman of Liberia’s National Elections Commission, James Fromayan said supporters of the opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) party had threatened to burn down his house and kill him. Fromayan said he reported the threats to the Liberian police, which in turn provided security for his family. The CDC denied that its members had made such threats against him.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a report presented during the Human Rights Council session from 14 September to 2 October, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) noted some advances in reforming the criminal justice sector in Liberia. However, the Liberian government was urged to increase, with external assistance, resources for key institutions in that sector to provide training for judges, prosecutors, defence counsel and investigators in order to ensure respect for due process of law. With the conclusion of the mandate of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), it was important that the Liberian people consider how best to implement the Commission’s recommendations, the OHCHR said. (The TRC was established by Liberia’s Parliament to investigate and report on gross human rights violations that occurred between January 1979 and October 2003. It began its work in June 2006 and concluded its two-year mandate with a report identifying 52 persons that it believed had committed war crimes.)

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is whether progress is being made in implementing the Liberia sanctions and whether to renew the sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel, and if so, whether modification will be required.

Options
Options include:

  • adopting a resolution following the pattern of previous renewals prolonging the arms embargo and travel ban for a further 12 months, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts for one year with requests for reports both midway through and at the end of the mandate; and
  • deciding to begin the process of winding down the sanctions regime, perhaps by requesting the Secretary-General to advise on the question in his next report.

Council Dynamics
During their consideration of the mid-term report of the Panel of Experts submitted to the sanctions committee on 5 June, Council members seemed agreed on the need to continue the current sanctions regime on various individuals in Liberia. Views within the Council do not seem to have changed significantly but may be influenced by to the latest findings of the Panel.

The general sense is that Liberia is moving in the right direction but security remains fragile. There are concerns about the potential impact on Liberia from recent developments in neighbouring countries such as Guinea.

The US is the lead country on this issue in the country.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1885 (15 September 2009) renewed UNMIL’s mandate for 12 months and authorised the mission to assist the Liberian government with the 2011 general presidential and legislative elections.
  • S/RES/1854 (19 December 2008) renewed the arms and travel sanctions for a further 12 months and extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts that monitors implementation of the sanctions regime until 20 December.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2009/411 (10 August 2009) was a report on UNMIL.
  • S/2009/332 (19 June 2009) was a report on the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA).
  • S/2009/299 (10 June 2009) was the Special Report on UNMIL.
  • S/2009/86 (10 February 2009) was a UNMIL report.
  • S/2007/479 (8 August 2007) was the initial drawdown plan for UNMIL.

Selected Presidential Statements

Other

  • S/2009/547 (22 October 2009) and S/2009/546 (19 October 2009) was the exchange of letters between the Secretary General and the president of the Council regarding the appointment of Lieutenant General Sikander Afzal (Pakistan) as Force Commander of UNMIL.
  • S/2009/303 (11 June 2009) was the report of the Council mission to Africa from 14-21 May, which included a visit to Liberia.
  • S/2009/290 (5 June 2009) was the midterm report of the Panel of Experts on Liberia.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark)

UNMIL Force Commander

Lieutenant General Sikander Afzal (Pakistan)

UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Strength as of 30 September 2009: 10,164 military and 1,355 police
  • Key contributing countries: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Pakistan
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: $561 million

UNMIL: Duration

September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2010

Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee

Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham (Libya)

Panel of Experts on Liberia

  • Thomas R. Creal (US, expert on finance)
  • Wynet V. Smith (Canada, expert on natural resources and coordinator of the Panel)
  • Hervé Gonsolin (France, expert on arms)

Full forecast

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