Afghanistan
Expected Council Action
In late December the Council is likely to have before it the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on developments in Afghanistan. It is possible that this will lead members to request a briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide. However, it is equally possible that members will prefer to have the briefing and open debate in January.
The Council has followed the evolving situation in Afghanistan closely in the last two months. It was recently briefed by the Secretary-General both on the security situation in Afghanistan following a bomb attack on a UN guesthouse and after his October trip to Afghanistan. However, members are keenly interested in ongoing developments, particularly the post-electoral agenda and progress on addressing key issues of security, good governance and corruption. The report on the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) is likely to discuss progress on the benchmarks identified in the last report.
UNAMA’s mandate expires on 23 March 2010.
Key Recent Developments
On 8 October the Council renewed the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) until 13 October 2010.
On 28 October five foreign UN employees and three Afghans were killed in an attack on a UN guesthouse in Kabul. The Taliban claimed responsibility. Eide said it was a “dark day for the UN in Afghanistan” and the Secretary-General expressed his outrage at the “cowardly attack”. Both Eide and the Secretary-General pledged that the UN would continue its work in Afghanistan. The Council issued a press statement on 28 October condemning in the strongest terms the terrorist attack, reiterating its serious concern over the threats posed by the Taliban, Al-Qaida and other extremist groups.
On 29 October the Council was briefed by the Secretary-General on security measures taken following the bomb attack and asked for support from member states. The Council issued a presidential statement again condemning the attack in the strongest terms. It expressed support for the security measures taken by the Secretary-General and looked forward to further detailed proposals.
The Secretary-General took his request for a strengthened and unified security system to the General Assembly on 30 October and appealed for rapid action on the UN security budget. He requested a supplementary $50 million to protect access to vulnerable UN locations. The request is now with the Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions and, in part because of its handling, seems to have exacerbated an already difficult budgetary process.
Following the 20 August election, a run-off between incumbent President Hamid Karzai and his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah was scheduled for 7 November. However, Abdullah withdrew on 1 November. On 2 November the Afghan Independent Election Commission declared Karzai the winner.
Also, on 2 November the Secretary-General made an unannounced visit to Kabul. He met with UN staff, as well as Karzai and Abdullah. The purpose of his visit was to support UN staff and reassure the Afghan people that the UN was not pulling out.
On 5 November the UN announced that it would temporarily relocate some staff as part of increased security measures following the 28 October attack.
The Secretary-General briefed the Council on 6 November on his visit. The Council then issued a press statement acknowledging the conclusion of the electoral process, stressing the need for a renewed inclusive political process led by the Afghan government. It also called on the new government to address security, good governance, corruption, economic recovery and counter-narcotics.
During his inauguration on 19 November, Karzai said that the Afghan army should take the lead in the country’s security within five years, with Afghan forces leading operations in unstable areas within three years. He said the government was committed to ending the “culture of impunity” and announced a conference to address the problem of corruption. He also called for a traditional national gathering, or Loya Jirga, to seek peace and reconciliation and invited all presidential candidates to work with him. He mentioned the government’s duty to fight cultivation and trafficking of illicit drugs. Karzai also said that an international conference would be held in Kabul soon to reiterate the mutual responsibilities and commitments of Afghanistan and the international community towards each other.
Afghanistan has also been high on NATO’s agenda. NATO defence ministers, meeting in Bratislava on 23 October, expressed broad support for the strategy advocated by the US and NATO Commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal. NATO Parliamentary Assembly members meeting in Edinburgh in mid-November called for military action to be backed by political means and emphasised the need to train Afghan forces. NATO is expected to discuss in December raising troop numbers.
Afghanistan was ranked the second most corrupt country in the world (behind Somalia) in Transparency International’s latest survey, released in November.
The UK has offered to host an international conference in London on 28 January 2010 to discuss an Afghan exit strategy for the international forces.
Human Rights-Related Developments
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The outcome of the Universal Periodic Review of Afghanistan was adopted by the Human Rights Council (HRC) on 24 September. In the discussion on the review, speakers noted that Afghanistan had accepted a number of recommendations that had been put forward, particularly those relating to efforts aimed at alleviating the economic and social problems in the country. While encouraging the government to improve the human rights situation, the HRC recognised that international community should help create an enabling environment. In its response to the outcome of the review, Afghanistan said that its efforts to make gradual improvements to human rights would continue despite serious challenges from terrorist organisations. |
Key Issues
The most immediate issue is the deteriorating security situation including its impact on the ability of the UN mission to operate. A report on UN safety and security issues is being completed by the Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security, Gregory Starr.
A connected issue is whether a more secure environment for UN staff will have negative implications on the work of UNAMA, for example in creating delays in plans to extend UNAMA’s presence to six more provinces.
Another related issue is whether the Secretary-General will secure an increased budget for security from the General Assembly.
Other important issues include how to accelerate training of Afghan forces to take over security in the next five years. Another is implementing the commitment of the Afghan government to tackle corruption, and what the UN can do to support its efforts, including Karzai’s recently announced anticorruption unit.
Also an issue, is finding ways of strengthening the relationship between UNAMA and the Afghan government. Recent signs of strain include the Afghan government’s strong response to Eide’s suggestion that Karzai could lose support unless he tackled corruption. It issued a statement saying that Eide’s comment breached “accepted international norms” and “violated respect for Afghan’s national sovereignty”.
There is also the question of whether the public dispute over how to handle allegations of fraud during the 20 August elections between Eide and the former Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Peter Galbraith, has affected UNAMA’s reputation and if anything needs to be done to restore trust and confidence. The deputy position has yet to be filled following Galbraith’s dismissal on 1 October and there is growing speculation that Eide does not intend to extend his contract beyond the initially agreed term of March 2010.
A major underlying issue is when to begin a discussion about possible changes to UNAMA’s mandate which expires in March 2010.
Also an issue is applying lessons learnt from the recent Afghan presidential elections to the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year.
Options
One option might be a statement addressing:
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key commitments made during Karzai’s inauguration;
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the importance of showing results in the key issues of security, good governance and fighting corruption;
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UNAMA’s plans to open six more provincial offices; and
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an outcome of a international conference in Kabul proposed by Karzai in his inauguration speech
Other options include:
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agreeing to begin discussions on UNAMA’s mandate well ahead of its expiry on 23 March;
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requesting more regular briefings from the Secretary-General on the full range of issues, including his security plan; and
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scheduling a Council visit to Afghanistan before UNAMA’s mandate renewal.
Council and Wider Dynamics
Some Council members see UN security as the most immediate issue needing to be addressed. There is general support for the Secretary-General’s proposals, but some feel there should more information provided to the Council on how the money would be used.
It appears that some Council members with troops in Afghanistan are increasingly cautious about endorsing the new government too quickly. Faced with increasing domestic opposition to military involvement in Afghanistan, they are now looking to tie the provision of further troops and aid with the Afghan government’s ability to deliver in key areas of security, governance and anticorruption.
Other members like Japan, which in early November pledged $5 billion in new aid to Afghanistan over five years, appear less inclined to link aid to progress in these areas. Turkey, a key troop contributor, which has also been involved in organising trilateral meetings involving Afghanistan and Pakistan, also appears more inclined to continue to show support to the Afghan government without attaching too many strings.
The US Afghanistan strategy at the time of writing had not been announced by President Barack Obama.
Another area where there are differences of emphasis among Council members is the extent to which the Taliban should be reintegrated into Afghan society. The UK has recently made clear that it favours reintegrating Taliban insurgents who are not extremists. But Russia continues to warn against premature commitment to reconciliation with the Taliban.
Civilian casualties also continue to be contentious. Countries like Libya, Costa Rica and Mexico, have been pressing for greater emphasis of this issue which was a matter of tough negotiations during the resolutionon ISAF in early October.
Japan is the lead country in the Council on Afghanistan until the end of 2009, after which Turkey will take over until the end of 2010.
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Selected Security Council Resolutions |
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Selected Presidential Statement |
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Selected Secretary-General’s Report |
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Other |
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Special Representative of the Secretary-General and UNAMA’s Chief of Mission |
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Kai Eide (Norway) |
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UNAMA: Size, Composition and Duration |
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ISAF Military Commander |
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Army General Stanley McChrystal (US) |
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ISAF: Size, Composition and Duration |
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Operation Enduring Freedom: Size, Composition and Duration |
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