December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
PEACEMAKING, PEACEKEEPING AND PEACEBUILDING

Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of its Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa. It expires on 31 December.

Key Recent Developments
On 18 December 2008 the Council renewed the mandate of the Working Group until 31 December 2009.

On 6 January 2009 the then permanent representative of Uganda, Francis Butagira, was elected as chairman of the Working Group for the period ending 31 December 2009 (S/2009/2). He was subsequently replaced on 18 February as chair of the Working by his successor at the Uganda Mission, Ruhakana Rugunda.

The Working Group has met twice in 2009. On 17 March, it held consultations to plan activities of the Working Group for 2009. On 18 June it adopted a programme of work for 2009, involving:

  • continued informal and thematic meetings, workshops and fora, with a view to making proposals on measures that might best assist the Council in more effectively implementing strategies aimed at conflict prevention and resolution in Africa;
  • a specific review of the situation in the West African region, including the impact of increasing drug trafficking and the related risk of relapse into conflict;
  • addressing ways to improve the working methods, cooperation and the consultative process between the Council and the AU Peace and Security Council;
  • reviewing how the UN, working with the AU, can implement more effectively conflict prevention and resolution strategies in Africa; and
  • discussing how the special needs of countries in Africa emerging from conflict could be assisted in laying foundations for sustainable peace and development.

During its 18 June meeting, the Working Group was also briefed by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Office for West Africa, Said Djinnit, on the situation in West Africa, including the issue of drug trafficking and the risks of relapse into conflict.

(For more detailed background on the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention in Africa please see our 24 August 2007 Update Report).

Key Issues
The immediate key issue for the Council is whether to renew the mandate of the Working Group. A related issue is whether, and how, the Council’s Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa can be reinvigorated.

Options
Options before the Council include:

  • a simple renewal of the mandate of the Working Group without any changes;
  • including new substantive elements in the mandate of the Working Group with substantial changes; and
  • highlighting the value of reinvigorating the Working Group.

Council Dynamics
The momentum of activity in the Working Group seems to have slowed in 2009 by comparison with previous years. At press time the Working Group had only managed to deal with one item on its programme of work: the 18 June briefing by Djinnit.

To some extent the lull in activity stems from the fact that much of the agenda by previous chairs (Republic of the Congo from 2006-2007 and South Africa in 2008) had been completed and new vision had to be developed.

The fact that there was a change in chairmanship during 2009 was also a factor along with the fact that Uganda inherited a difficult responsibility of the drafting of the annual report of the Council.

Council members are also conscious of the challenge of achieving continuity when a newly elected non-permanent member assumes the chair with the lack of institutional memory to adequately sustain momentum during its first year. The Republic of the Congo faced a similar challenge in 2006 when it took over the chair from Benin.

Council members appear committed to renewing the mandate of the Working Group, not least because most recognise that there is continuing utility for this subsidiary body, especially in terms of maintaining Council and international focus on best approaches to conflict prevention in Africa. Some members are keen to see added impetus to reenergise the Working Group in 2010.

The renewal is expected to take place by the close of the year following consultations among members of the Council. The Council’s decision is likely to be announced in a note by its president.

In January, Council members are expected to announce their choice of a chair for the Working Group. The practice has been to select an African member, and Uganda’s chairmanship seems likely to be renewed to ensure continuity. (Gabon and Nigeria, which join the Council in 2010, would likely face similar challenges regarding institutional memory.)

Sign up for SCR emails
UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1653 (27 January 2006) addressed conflict prevention and resolution in the Great Lakes region.
  • S/RES/1625 (14 September 2005) was a declaration on the effectiveness of the Security Council’s role in conflict prevention.
  • S/RES/1318 (7 September 2000) was the adoption of the Millennium Summit declaration on maintaining peace and security, especially in Africa.
  • S/RES/1170 (28 May 1998) established the Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa.

Selected Presidential Statements
  • S/PRST/2007/31 (28 August 2007) requested the Secretary-General to submit a report on the options for further implementation of resolution 1625.
  • S/PRST/2007/1 (8 January 2007) requested the Secretary-General to provide the Council with more regular analytical reporting on regions of potential armed conflict and stressed the importance of establishing comprehensive strategies on conflict prevention.
  • S/PRST/2004/44 (19 November 2004) recognised the importance of strengthening cooperation with the AU in order to help build its capacity to deal with collective security challenges.
  • S/PRST/2002/2 (31 January 2002) made recommendations for achieving conflict prevention and resolution in Africa and noted that the Council would consider establishing a Working Group to monitor these recommendations.
  • S/PRST/2000/25 (20 July 2000) invited the Secretary-General to submit a report on the prevention of armed conflict.
  • S/PRST/1999/34 (30 November 1999) recognised the importance of building a culture of armed conflict prevention and the need for a contribution from all principal UN organs to achieve this goal.
  • S/PRST/1997/46 (25 September 1997) noted that addressing the challenges of conflict in Africa required a comprehensive approach and called on the Secretary-General to produce a report to address the issue.

Selected Letters
  • S/2008/229 (8 April 2008) was a letter from the Permanent Representative of South Africa forwarding the concept paper on the relationship between the UN and regional organisations, in particular the AU, in the maintenance of international peace and security.
  • S/2007/640 (29 October 2007) was the letter from the Permanent Representative of Indonesia forwarding the concept paper on the relationship between the UN and regional organisations in the maintenance of international peace and security.
  • S/2007/496 (14 August 2007) was the letter from the Republic of the Congo containing the terms of reference for the Council‘s open debate on 28 August on conflict prevention and resolution, especially in Africa.
  • S/2007/148 (14 March 2007) was the letter from the Permanent Representative of South Africa forwarding the concept paper on the relationship between the UN and regional organisations, in particular the African Union, in the maintenance of international peace and security.
  • S/2005/567 (29 August 2005) was the conclusions of the sixth high-level meeting between the Secretary-General and regional organisations.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports
  • S/2008/18 (14 January 2008)was the report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of Security Council resolution 1625 (2005) on conflict prevention, particularly in Africa.
  • A/60/891 (18 July 2006) was a progress report of the Secretary-General to the General Assembly on the prevention of armed conflict.
  • A/59/2005 (21 March 2005) was the Secretary-General’s report In Larger Freedom: Towards Development, Security and Human Rights for All.
  • S/2001/574 (7 June 2001) was the Secretary-General’s first comprehensive report on conflict prevention.
  • S/1998/318 (13 April 1998) was the Secretary-General’s report on the causes of conflict and the promotion of durable peace and sustainable development in Africa.

Other
  • S/2009/2 (6 January 2009) announced the election of the Ugandan ambassador to the post of chairman of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa.
  • S/2008/795 (18 December 2008) renewed the mandate of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa.
  • S/2005/828 (22 December 2005) was the report on a seminar held by the Working Group on cooperation between the UN and African regional organisations in the field of peace and security.
  • A/RES/60/1 (24 October 2005) was the 2005 World Summit Outcome Document.
  • S/2002/207 (1 March 2002) outlined the terms of reference and mandate for the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa.

Other Relevant Fact

Chair of the Working Group

  • Ruhakana Rugunda (Uganda, January 2009 – Present)

Full forecast

Subscribe to receive SCR publications