December 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2009
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UNDOF (Golan)

 Expected Council Action
The mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) expires on 31 December. It was established in May 1974 to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria and to supervise areas of separation and limitation. A report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF is also due.

Following its usual practice, the Council is expected to extend the mandate for six months and call upon Israel and Syria to implement resolution 338. This 1973 resolution called on the parties to start negotiations on a just and durable peace and to implement resolution 242 of 1967 on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories.

A presidential statement is also expected, as has been the practice since 1976, drawing attention to the wider issues in the region and noting that the situation in the Middle East will remain tense until a comprehensive settlement is reached. 

Key Recent Developments
The June report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF noted that the ceasefire had been maintained and that the area of operation had remained generally quiet. The Secretary-General encouraged Israel and Syria to resume indirect peace talks under the auspices of Turkey. (These were postponed after Israeli incursions into Gaza in December 2008.)

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad visited Washington on 28 September for talks with US government officials. In June the US State Department announced it would be sending an ambassador to Damascus (at press time no appointment had been made). The previous ambassador had been withdrawn in February 2005 in protest of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell visited Damascus in June following several previous visits by US officials. Some observers note that any substantive renewal of an Israeli-Syrian dialogue may derive impetus from stronger US involvement but caution that it is too early to determine if this initial reengagement will have any immediate effects on progressing talks.

In Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 11 November and with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 13 November.

On 12 November Netanyahu signalled a willingness to negotiate directly with Syria but without preconditions. On 13 November Assad also indicated a readiness to negotiate, suggesting that Turkey continue in its intermediary role and that the focus be on the return of the Golan Heights to Syria.

At time of writing it seemed that the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations would send a mission to assess UNDOF, but the timing of such a review was unclear. Poland withdrew its contingent from UNDOF in October and was replaced by a Philippine battalion.

Human Rights-Related Developments
At its March session this year, the Human Rights Council adopted two resolutions directly related to the Golan Heights. A resolution on human rights in the occupied Syrian Golan (passed by 33 to 1 with 13 abstentions) called upon Israel to desist from imposing Israeli citizenship and identity cards on Syrians living in Golan and from other practices affecting the exercise of their human rights. A second resolution (adopted by 46 to 1 with no abstentions) urged Israel to reverse its settlement policy in the occupied territories, including Golan, and to prevent any new installation of settlers in those territories. The UN Special Committee to investigate Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the peoples of the occupied territories in September recorded evidence (A/64/339) of plans for the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Syrian Golan and instances of discrimination against Syrians living in Golan with respect to access to agricultural land, water and employment. The International Committee of the Red Cross recently reported that about 560 Druze pilgrims were allowed to cross into Syria from the occupied Golan through the Kuneitra crossing on 24 September. Since there are no diplomatic relations between Syria and Israel, the organisation acted as a neutral intermediary between the two countries to facilitate the pilgrimage.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council is whether to continue the 35-year practice of renewing UNDOF’s mandate with the associated statements. A related issue is whether to be more proactive in encouraging Syria and Israel to resume peace talks.

Another question is whether it makes sense to adjust the timing of the mandate renewal from six to 12 months and to begin discussion—as it is doing in most other peacekeeping operations—of benchmarks.

Options
One option is a simple rollover of UNDOF’s mandate.

Other options include designating a lead country on the issue and giving more impetus to the process by formally encouraging the renewal of a Syria-Israel peace track.

Council Dynamics
There is consensus that UNDOF remains useful in the absence of a peace agreement between Israel and Syria. France, Turkey and the US are key players and Austria and Japan are troop-contributors to UNDOF.

It seems, however, that few if any Council members are interested in departing from the standard past renewal practices. One exception may be the length of the mandate. It seems that some are interested in a one year mandate period. Others are sensitive, however, to a Syrian position which prefers to keep the mandate under review every six months. Council members that contribute troops to UNDOF seem to attach importance to the comfort of all parties with the timing and mandate of the mission.

Regarding the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operation’s assessment mission, it seems that this is related to the larger UK-French initiative to review all UN peacekeeping operations and is not specific to UNDOF.

There seems to be no commonly agreed lead country in the Council on this issue.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1875 (23 June 2009) renewed UNDOF until 31 December 2009.
  • S/RES/350 (31 May 1974) established UNDOF.
  • S/RES/338 (22 October 1973) called for a ceasefire and comprehensive peace.
  • S/RES/242 (22 November 1967) called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories.

Other

  • S/2009/597 (18 November 2009) was the latest UNDOF report.
  • S/PRST/2009/18 (23 June 2009) was the last statement following the renewal of UNDOF.
  • S/PV.6148 (23 June 2009) was the meeting record of the most recent UNDOF renewal.
  • S/2009/295 (8 June 2009) was the June UNDOF report.
Other Relevant Facts

UNDOF Force Commander

Major-General Wolfgang Jilke (Austria)

Size and Composition of Mission (30 September 2009)

  • Size: 1,045 troops, assisted by some 76 military observers of UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan, supported by 37 international civilian personnel and 105 local civilian staff
  • Troop contributors: Austria, Canada, Croatia, India, Japan and Philippines

Approved Budget

1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: $45.03 million (A/C.5/63/25)

Full forecast

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