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AFRICA

Sudan/Darfur

Expected Council Action
In December, the Council is expected to review the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). (The Secretary-General’s report was published on 16 November.) Under-Secretary-General for Field Support Susana Malcorra and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy are likely to brief the Council on progress with the deployment of UNAMID. The chair of the Sudan Sanctions Committee is also expected to brief the Council. Separately, the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, is expected to brief the Council on his work in Sudan.

Council members are also expected to continue to watch closely the situation in South Sudan and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The mandates of UNAMID and the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) expire 31 July and 30 April, respectively.

Also in December, the former South African President, Thabo Mbeki, who headed the AU Panel on Darfur (AUPD), may brief the Council on the findings of the report.

Key Recent Developments
On 18 November the Darfur peace talks resumed in Doha, Qatar with the participation of civil society organisations in Darfur.

On 30 October, during the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) meeting in the Nigerian capital Abuja, Le Roy stressed the need for the parties’ commitment to the peace process and the challenges faced by AU-UN mediation efforts posed by the lack of unity among rebel movements in pursuing political solution in Darfur.

On 16 November Malcorra met with representatives from UNAMID, the AU and Sudanese government. Issues discussed included the security of Darfur peacekeepers, deployment of peacekeepers and the functioning of UNAMID.

Challenges continue for UNAMID with attacks on its personnel impacting its ability to effectively carry out operations. On 8 November, UNAMID warned the Sudan Liberation Movement/Abdul Wahid to refrain from obstructing the work of the mission by targeting its personnel. UNAMID said it would not tolerate any attacks that interfered with its mandate of supporting peace.

In South Sudan 47 people were killed in ethnic clashes in the Lakes state region on 16 November. Mundari ethnic gunmen launched an attack on two Dinka Aliab villages in the Bulok area of Awerial County. The Secretary-General’s report in October referred to widespread proliferation of arms in southern Sudan, and called the Government of South Sudan to strengthen its efforts to end recurring violence against unarmed civilians and to bring those responsible to justice.

On 22 November Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict Radhika Coomaraswamy visited Sudan and met with authorities in Darfur, South Sudan and Khartoum. Her visit was a follow-up on her previous visit in January 2007 to assess protection of children affected by the conflict. She also assessed issues related to recruitment and use of children by armed groups and forces, as well as their demobilization and reintegration into communities; sexual violence, particularly against girls in Darfur; maiming of children; and the targeting and kidnapping of humanitarian workers.

The Darfur Sanctions Panel of Experts report, published on 27 October highlighted lack of leadership and solutions to the Darfur conflict. It emphasized the need for a more comprehensive approach to the political process and for companies to use due diligence in their business dealings to avoid being implicated in embargo violations.

On 27 October US President Barack Obama renewed US sanctions on Sudan. These restrict US trade with and investment in Sudan, block all property of the Sudanese government in the US and ban transactions with individuals and entities determined to be contributing to the conflict in Darfur. However, the discussion needs to be seen also in light of the administration’s willingness to engage with Sudan (for more information please see our Monthly Forecasts for October and November).

In November, voter registration began for the first multiparty elections in Sudan in 24 years. Political parties continued to accuse each other of widespread fraud and intimidation, and the rift between the two main parties increased. Opposition parties accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of widespread intimidation. Some observers have also pointed out that the awareness campaign for the registration process has been poor, prompting calls to extend registration that ends this month. On 9 November, some rebel groups in Darfur threatened to attack any election officials that came into their territory. The Secretary-General’s October report noted UNAMID’s efforts in supporting UNMIS to work in Darfur under a memorandum of understanding between the two missions focusing on logistical support related to elections.

The AUPD submitted recommendations to the AU PSC meeting at the end of October. The report recommended creation of a hybrid court, establishing a truth and reconciliation commission, strengthening Sudanese domestic criminal justice system and removing immunities for state actors accused of violating human rights.

Both the AU and Council members are reflecting on whether these recommendations might support the peace process. Members are conscious that law reform is badly needed in order to have an effective judicial system. Opposition parties have threatened to boycott the upcoming election if laws are not amended in line with the new constitution.

Comprehensive Peace Agreement
The Secretary-General’s report in October noted progress achieved on implementation of the CPA. However, the report emphasised that key benchmarks had not been met, including next elections and the 2011 referendum. The Secretary-General stated that the international community needed to approach Sudan as a whole by taking into consideration the link between progress on the implementation of the CPA and the Darfur peace process.

Key Issues
An important issue, raised in resolution 1881, adopted 30 July, is the Council request to the Secretary-General to consult the parties with a view to producing an effective ceasefire-monitoring mechanism. (UNAMID was asked to report on instances of violence that could undermine peace efforts.) A question for the Council in December is what follow-up should now occur.

A second issue is the Council request to the Secretary-General to submit a strategic workplan with benchmarks. It seems the upcoming Secretary-General’s report might likely focus on:

• progress made against benchmarks;
• updating the dialogue with parties to the conflict on a time-bound action plan to end the recruitment and use of child soldiers;
• normalising relations between Sudan and Chad, including measures to end support for armed groups and stronger actions to combat arms trafficking in the region;
• establishment of joint border monitoring by Sudan and Chad, and diplomatic cooperation; and
• inter-mission coordination efforts between UNAMID, UNMIS and the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad.

An issue will be whether to respond to the ICC’s Prosecutor’s briefing. (It seems likely that ICC work during the past six months will include issues involving displaced persons, the spillover of violence from Darfur into Chad and the use of child soldiers by various parties.)

Improving protection of civilians in the South and across Darfur is an ongoing key issue. A related issue is ensuring safe, timely and unhindered humanitarian access, the safety and security of humanitarian personnel and the protection of humanitarian convoys.

Reinvigorating the political negotiations among parties in Darfur also continues to be a key issue along with security.

With respect to the CPA, the emerging dispute between the ruling NCP and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement about election-related matters, including census results and the referendum, is a major challenge for the Council.

Options

Options for the Council include:

• taking no action in December;
• using the opportunity of the briefing to adopt a statement to highlight challenges faced by UNAMID in the implementation of its mandate and calling on all parties to commit to the peace process;
• supporting reconciliation efforts of theJoint Chief Mediator especially as he engages civil society organisations in peace efforts;
• following-up recently adopted resolution 1894 on protection of civilians in armed conflict and requesting UNAMID and UNMIS to focus on the implementation of effective protection of civilians and humanitarian access;
• begin discussion among experts on the recommendations of the AUPD report; and
• adopting a statement highlighting the growing concerns about the CPA implementation.

Council Dynamics
Most Council members agree that the implementation of the CPA is a very high priority in view of the upcoming elections. However, some also link this with the Darfur peace process as critical for establishing peace in Sudan.

Most members accept that with the slow movement of the peace process and lack of strong commitment by the parties, UNAMID will continue to face challenges.(In July during the Council debate, Russia noted that provisions are available to the Council to take measures against those hindering the peace process.)

The UK is the lead country on Sudan in the Council.

UN Documents 

Other Relevant Facts

Full forecast

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