September 2020 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview 

  Niger has the presidency in September. While the Security Council is expected to continue to work largely remotely, due to COVID-19 restrictions, it plans to hold some meetings—including adoptions—on UN premises.   Read more

• In Hindsight: Towards a More Consultative Allocation of Subsidiary Body Chairs 

  The way chairs of subsidiary bodies are allocated has changed fundamentally in recent years. Although Council subsidiary bodies are chaired by elected members, with only rare exceptions, the allocation of these positions was historically decided by the permanent members, with minimal consultation. The decisions would be finalised late in the year, and sometimes not until January. Elected members were frustrated with the process that left them no time to prepare and with appointments that did not reflect their country’s interests and political priorities.    Read more

• Status Update since our August Forecast 

  Jammu and Kashmir  On 5 August Council members discussed the situation in Jammu and Kashmir under “any other business”. The discussion was initiated by China at Pakistan’s request. It followed letters in early August from Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmoud Qureshi... Read more

• Afghanistan

  In September, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), set to expire on 17 September. Prior to that, the Council will also hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. Deborah Lyons, Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief the Council via videoconference (VTC) on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMA, issued on 18 August. Saad Mohseni, Chief Executive of MOBY GROUP, which contains MOBY media group—the largest media company in Afghanistan—will also brief the Council on issues relating to media freedom in the country. Read more

• Global Governance post-COVID-19

  The Security Council is expected to hold a summit level debate on global governance post-COVID-19 during the virtual high-level week of the General Assembly. Expected briefers are Secretary-General António Guterres and Chairperson of the AU Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat. Read more

• Libya

  In September, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), set to expire on 15 September. Briefings by the Acting Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Günter Sautter, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany, are also scheduled. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the meetings are likely to be held as videoconferences (VTCs). The authorisation given by resolution 2491 (to inspect vessels suspected of being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking) expires on 3 October, and that of resolution 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be in violation of the arms embargo) expires on 5 June 2021. Measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May 2021. Read more

• Syria 

  In September, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

• Cooperation between the UN and Regional Organisations: the Role of the International Organization of La Francophonie

  In September, Niger is expected to organise a ministerial-level open debate on cooperation between the UN and regional organisations, focusing on the role of the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF). Expected briefers are the Secretary-General of the OIF, Louise Mushikiwabo; a representative of the UN Secretariat; and possibly a civil society representative. A concept note will be circulated; no outcome is expected. Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  As Council president in September, Niger is planning to convene an open videoconference (VTC) debate on “attacks against schools: a grave violation of children’s rights” with a focus on the Sahel region. The meeting will coincide with the first “International Day to Protect Education from Attack”, which will take place on 9 September, in line with General Assembly resolution 74/275 adopted on 12 May. The anticipated briefers are Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba and a representative from the Global Coalition for the Protection of Education from Attack (GCPEA). UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore, and a child civil society representative may also brief. Read more

• Peacekeeping Operations 

  In September, the Security Council will receive its annual comprehensive briefing on UN peacekeeping reform as required by resolution 2378 of 20 September 2017. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is expected to brief.  Read more

• Yemen

  In September, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing, via videoconference (VTC), with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. Read more

• Sudan

  In September, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) and the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). The chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), will provide the quarterly briefing on the committee’s work.  Read more

• South Sudan

  In September, the Security Council expects to hold a meeting on South Sudan, during which it will discuss the quarterly report on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and developments in the country. Special Representative and head of UNMISS David Shearer is the most likely briefer.   Read more

• The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Peace and Security

  In September, Niger plans to hold a ministerial-level briefing on the humanitarian impact of environmental degradation on peace and security. The focus will be on the Sahel region, although participants are also encouraged to broaden the geographical scope of the discussion. Senior officials from the Secretariat of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the ICRC are expected to brief, as is a civil society representative. No formal outcome is anticipated at this time. Read more

• Iraq (UNITAD)

  In September, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD), which expires on 21 September. Read more

• Colombia

  In September, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia, which expires on 25 September. Read more