February 2021 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview 

  In February, the UK will have the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

• In Hindsight: Subsidiary Bodies’ Chairs and Penholders for 2021  

  Despite new working methods put in place in 2016 to facilitate a more efficient and transparent process, getting agreement this time was protracted and challenging. The difficulties had as much to do with the negotiations between the permanent and elected members as is it did with competition among elected members to head particular subsidiary bodies, coupled with reluctance to take on others.  Read more

• Status Update since our January Forecast  

  Maintenance of International Peace and Security: Challenges of Maintaining Peace and Security in Fragile Contexts  On 6 January, the Council held a high-level open videoconference (VTC) debate on the challenges faced by countries in fragile contexts, in particular on the... Read more

• Central African Republic

  In February, the Council will discuss the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), which is due by 15 February. The Council will be briefed by Mankeur Ndiaye, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and head of MINUSCA. Read more

• COVID-19

  In February, the Security Council is expected to hold a high-level briefing on COVID-19, with a focus on equitable access to vaccines, especially in conflict-affected areas. UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is expected to chair the briefing. Read more

• Syria

  In February, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and on the use of chemical weapons in Syria.  Read more

• Myanmar

  The Council may receive a briefing in February on the situation in Myanmar from Special Envoy Christine Schraner Burgener. Briefers from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees and UNDP are also possible.    Read more

• Sudan

  In February, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee by 12 February, in advance of its expiration on 12 March, as set out in resolution 2508. The mandate of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) expires on 3 June in accordance with resolution 2524.  Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In February, the Security Council is expected to receive briefings by Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), and Assistant Secretary-General Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) on the Secretary-General’s 12th strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). Read more

• Yemen

  In February, the Security Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing Yemen financial and travel ban sanctions, which expire on 26 February, and the mandate of the Yemen Panel of Experts, which expires on 28 March. (The targeted arms embargo established by resolution 2216 in April 2015 against the Houthi rebel group is open-ended.) The Council will also hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, the head of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The chair of the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee, Ambassador I. Rhonda King (Saint Vincent and the Grenadines), is also expected to brief. Read more

• Iraq

  In February, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Special Representative and head of the U N Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in February. UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2021 and the mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) expires on 18 September 2021. Read more

• Somalia

  In February, the Council is expected to renew its authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), due to expire on 28 February. The Council is scheduled to be briefed on the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which is due 13 February. James Swan, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and head of UNSOM, will brief the Council. Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason (Ireland), chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee, will also brief the Council on the activities of the committee.  Read more

• Haiti

  In February, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), Helen La Lime, on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report on the special political mission, due on 12 February. A civil society representative may also brief. Read more

• Climate Change and Security

  In February, the UK plans to host a high-level open debate, “Addressing climate-related security risks to international peace and security through mitigation and resilience building”. The meeting is expected to consider conflict risks, peacebuilding approaches and ways to support adaptation and resilience in climate-vulnerable contexts.  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres is an anticipated briefer. There may be other briefers as well.     Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mona Juul (Norway), is due to provide her first briefing in this capacity.  The committee is expected to discuss the final report of the Panel of Experts in February, but the report is not expected to be formally presented to the Council until March. Because of the temporary measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the briefing is expected to be held as a closed videoconference (VTC).  Read more