October 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 September 2018

• Overview

  Bolivia has the presidency in October. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our September Forecast. Read more

• In Hindsight: Emergence of the E10

  In October, the five incoming members of the Security Council—Belgium, the Dominican Republic, Germany, Indonesia and South Africa—will begin attending meetings of the Council, both formal and informal, as well as meetings of the subsidiary bodies. Starting on 1 January 2019, these five members will make up the E10 together with Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Kuwait, Peru and Poland. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In October, the Council is planning a visiting mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Bolivia, France and Equatorial Guinea will co-lead the mission. Read more

• Libya

  Expected Council Action In October, the Council is expected to renew the authorisation for member states to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant... Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In October, the Council is scheduled to receive its annual briefing from the chairs of its counter-terrorism-related committees, Ambassador Sacha Sergio Llorenty Solíz (Bolivia), chair of the 1540 Committee, which focuses on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; Ambassador Kairat Umarov (Kazakhstan), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee; and Ambassador Gustavo Meza-Cuadra Velásquez (Peru), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC). Solíz will also address the joint activities of all three committees. Read more

• Syria

  In October, the Council expects to receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan Heights)

  In October, the DPKO will brief Council members in consultations on the most recent report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF. No formal outcome is expected. The mandate of UNDOF expires on 31 December. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). Resolution 2416 requested that this report be submitted by 15 October. The Council is also expected to decide by 15 October whether to adopt a resolution extending the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border. Read more

• Western Sahara

  The Council will receive a briefing in consultations on Western Sahara in October. The Special Representative and head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), Colin Stewart, is expected to brief. Also during October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of MINURSO, which expires on 31 October. Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In October, the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate under the agenda item “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, which will focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is expected to brief, most likely via video teleconference from Jerusalem. No outcome is anticipated. Read more

• Mali

  In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, on the situation in Mali, followed by consultations. Read more

• Colombia

  Expected Council Action In October, the Council will receive a briefing from Special Representative Jean Arnault on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Verification Mission in Colombia. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. The mandate of the verification... Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In October, the Security Council will be briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), as requested in resolution 2429. Also in October, Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the committee’s work. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June 2019. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In October, Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, is expected to brief on the latest developments in the country and the most recent MINUSCA report, due on 15 October. The Chair of the 2127 Central African Republic (CAR) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kacou Houadja Léon Adom (Côte d’Ivoire), is scheduled to undertake a visiting mission to the country from 2 to 5 October. Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Council members will receive the semi-annual briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. This briefing, usually conducted by the Special Coordinator for Lebanon or an official from the Department of Political Affairs, has always been held in consultations. The mandate of UNIFIL expires on 31 August 2019. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In October, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security and the Secretary-General’s annual report on the issue. Bolivia, as president of the Council in October, is expected to circulate a concept note ahead of the debate. The debate, which may be held at high level, is expected to focus on the empowerment of women in peace processes. The Secretary-General is expected to brief. No formal outcome is expected at this point. Read more

• Cyprus

  In October, the Council expects to receive a report on the Secretary-General’s good offices in Cyprus and the outcome of UN consultant Jane Holl Lute’s consultations on the negotiation process. Read more

• Yemen

  In October, the Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, is expected to brief the Council. A representative of OCHA is also likely to brief. Read more