July 2020 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2020 Download Forecast:
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  • Overview

    Germany has the presidency of the Security Council in July. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Council’s Scorecard in the First Six Months of 2020 

      It has not been business as usual for the Security Council in the first six months of 2020. Since mid-March, the suspension of in-person Council meetings has required unexpected decisions and drastic changes. The restrictions on conducting its business in the Council chamber have pushed the body to find new ways to carry... Read more

  • Status Update since our June Forecast 

    Tribunals   On 3 June, the president of the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals, Judge Carmel Agius, and its prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, met remotely with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals. On 8 June, they briefed Security Council members in an... Read more

  • Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

    In July, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly open debate on “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is expected to brief. With the extraordinary and provisional measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic likely still to be in place, the debate is likely to be held as an open videoconference (VTC) with statements by non-Council members submitted in writing. Read more

  • Pandemics and Security

    In July, the Council will hold an open debate on the peace and security implications of pandemics and international health crises. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas will chair the session. Secretary-General António Guterres, ICRC President Peter Maurer, and AU Commissioner for Social Affairs Amira Elfadil Mohammed are the likely briefers. Because the measures introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are likely still to be in place, the debate is expected to be held as an open videoconference (VTC) and statements by non-Council members are expected to be submitted in writing. Read more

  • UNRCCA (Central Asia)

    In July, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the Council in a closed videoconference on UNRCCA’s activities. Read more

  • Peace Operations and Human Rights 

    As one of the four signature events of its presidency, Germany is organising an open debate on “United Nations peacekeeping operations: Peace Operations and Human Rights”. Read more

  • Libya

    In July, the Security Council is expected to receive briefings by the Acting Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Williams, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany. Read more

  • West Africa and the Sahel

    In July, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief the Council to present the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on West Africa and the Sahel.  Read more

  • Yemen

    In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), which expires on 15 July. The Council is also expected to receive its monthly briefing on Yemen by Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock may brief on the humanitarian situation, and General Abhijit Guha, the head of UNMHA, is also likely to brief. The Yemen Panel of Experts is due to submit its mid-term update to the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee by 28 July.  Read more

  • Colombia

    In July, Security Council members are expected to hold an open videoconference (VTC) meeting, which will be followed by a closed VTC session, on Colombia. Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the mission, published on 26 June. A civil society briefer may also brief the Council. The Council is likely to issue a press statement following the meeting. Read more

  • Syria

    In July, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Due to the extraordinary and provisional measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the meetings are likely to be held through videoconferencing (VTC).  Read more

  • Cyprus

    In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 July expiry. Special Representative and head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and recent developments in a closed videoconference. A representative from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs may also brief.   Read more

  • Climate and Security

    Germany plans to convene a ministerial-level open debate on climate and security in late July. A Council product is a potential outcome of the meeting. Given that the extraordinary and provisional measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic may still be in place, an open videoconference (VTC) may be held instead of an open debate, with statements by non-Council members submitted in writing. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    In July, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence at ministerial level, focusing on accountability and the implementation of a survivor-centred approach. The Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, is expected to brief. Representatives of civil society are also likely to participate. No formal outcome is anticipated at this point. If the measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the open debate is likely to be held as an open videoconference and statements by non-Council members would be submitted in writing.  Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In July, the Council is expected to renew the 2127 Central African Republic (CAR) sanctions regime, which expires at the end of the month; the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee expires on 31 August and is also expected to be renewed in July.    Read more

Posted 30 June 2020  • Download Complete Forecast: PDF