August 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2018

• Overview

  The UK will have the presidency in August. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our July Forecast. Read more

• In Hindsight: The Security Council and the International Criminal Court

  July marked the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal Court (ICC). The statute established the ICC’s jurisdiction over genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. 17 July also marked the activation of the court’s jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, as decided by the 16th session of the ICC Assembly of States Parties held between 4 and 14 December 2017. Read more

• Yemen

  In August, the Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, is expected to brief the Council. OCHA Director of Operations John Ging is expected to brief as well. Also this month, the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee will meet to consider the Yemen Panel of Experts’ mid-term update on the implementation of the sanctions regime. The Yemen sanctions expire on 26 February 2019. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In August, Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (OCT), and Michèle Coninsx, the Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), will brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh), followed by consultations. Read more

• Syria

  In August, the Council expects to receive the monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation in Syria and on the use of chemical weapons. Read more

• Iraq

  In August, the Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Ján Kubiš, is scheduled to brief the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI and the most recent developments. A civil society briefer is also a possibility. On 14 June, the Council renewed UNAMI’s mandate for ten months in resolution 2421. The mandate expires on 31 May 2019. Read more

• Burundi

  In August, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Michel Kafando, is expected to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi in accordance with resolution 2303 of 29 July 2016. Ambassador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, may also brief. Read more

• Lebanon

  In August, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which expires on 31 August. Read more

• Myanmar

  In August, the Council is expected to hold a public meeting on the situation in Myanmar, one year after the 25 August 2017 attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army on security posts and the violent reaction by the Myanmar military forces that led to over 750,000 persons fleeing to Bangladesh. Secretary-General António Guterres, who has recently returned from Bangladesh, is expected to brief. The meeting will likely be chaired by a UK minister; a civil society briefer may also address the Council. Read more

• Mediation and Settlement of Disputes

  In August, the UK is planning to hold an open debate of the Security Council on “mediation and settlement of disputes”, which will be chaired at ministerial-level.  Secretary-General António Guterres and a member of his High-Level Advisory Board on Mediation are expected to brief. There may also be a female civil society briefer. While no formal outcome is anticipated, the UK may prepare a chair’s summary capturing the main elements of the debate. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In August, the Council expects a briefing on Guinea-Bissau from the Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), José Viegas Filho. Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba (Equatorial Guinea), as chair of the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee, and Ambassador Mauro Vieira (Brazil), chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), are also expected to brief. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Karel van Oosterom (Netherlands), is expected to provide Council members with his regular 90-day briefing on the work of the committee. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In August, the Council will receive the latest Secretary-General’s report on the political and technical progress towards the holding of elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Read more

• South Sudan

  In August, although not on the programme of work at press time, a briefing on South Sudan may be requested given that the Council was last briefed publicly on the issue on 28 June. Council members also expect to receive the Secretary-General’s monthly report on obstructions to the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). An Arria-formula meeting with the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council in March 2016, may also take place in August. Read more