May 2020 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview

  Estonia has the presidency of the Security Council in May. Read more

• In Hindsight: Security Council Working Methods in the Time of COVID-19

  For nearly two weeks following its last pre-COVID-19 formal meeting on 12 March, the Security Council became invisible and—in the eyes of the general public and fellow UN members—appeared to be idle. A new programme of work was posted on the Council’s website on 16 March, with that week’s meetings cancelled but retaining those for the weeks of 23 and 30 March. The subsequent versions of the programme of work listed fewer and fewer meetings, and the last one, posted on 27 March, showed no meetings between 12 and 31 March. Read more

• Status Update since our April Forecast 

  Lake Chad Basin  On 1 April, Council members issued a press statement condemning the 23 March terrorist attack in Boma, Chad, in which at least 98 persons were killed and 47 wounded, and the attack on military vehicles near Goneri in Yobe State, Nigeria, the same day, in which at least 47 persons were... Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In May, the Security Council is expected to make a decision regarding the drawdown and exit of the UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). In accordance with resolution 2495 and following the 30 March adoption of resolution 2517, which maintained UNAMID’s current troop and police ceilings until 31 May, the Council is likely to adopt a resolution establishing a follow-on presence to UNAMID.  Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  During May, the Council usually meets on the Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S), which Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger (G5 Sahel) decided to establish in February 2017 to combat terrorist and criminal groups in the region. Prior to this, members will receive the Secretary-General’s bi-annual report on the FC-G5S. Read more

• South Sudan

  In May, the Council expects to vote on a resolution to renew the South Sudan sanctions regime—including targeted sanctions and the arms embargo—which expires on 31 May. The mandate of the South Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts expires on 30 June, and the Council is also expected “to take appropriate action regarding [its] future extension” by 31 May, as stipulated in resolution 2471.   Read more

• Lebanon

  In May, the Council is expected to hold two meetings on Lebanon in closed video teleconference (VTC) format. The first meeting will be a briefing on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. In the second meeting, the Council is expected to receive the semi-annual briefing on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

• Libya

  In May, the Security Council is expected to receive briefings by the Acting Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Williams, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Jürgen Schulz, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany. A Secretary-General’s report on UNSMIL is also due in May. Additionally, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya.   UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September 2020. The authorisations given by resolutions 2473 (to inspect vessels believed to violate the arms embargo) and 2491 (to inspect vessels suspected of migrant smuggling or human trafficking) expire on 10 June 2020 and 3 October 2020, respectively. Measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya expire on 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 May 2021.  Read more

• Syria

  Expected Council Action  In May, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on political issues, the humanitarian situation, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Under the temporary measures adopted because of the COVID–19 pandemic, the three... Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina  

  In May, the Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, is expected to brief on the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Because of the temporary measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the debate is expected to be held as a video teleconference (VTC).    The current authorisation for the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) expires on 5 November.  Read more

• Iraq

  In May, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), which expires on 31 May. The Council is also scheduled to receive a briefing by the Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in the situation in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports, on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Both reports are due in May. The fourth report of the Special Adviser and head of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) is also due in May.  UNITAD’s mandate expires on 21 September 2020. Read more

• Yemen

  In May, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, a representative from OCHA, and the head of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), General Abhijit Guha. The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2020. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In May, the Council expects to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Council is also expected to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan/South Sudan border. The mandate of UNISFA and the mission’s support for the JBVMM expire on 15 May.  Read more

• Open Debate on Security Council Working Methods

  During its presidency in May, Estonia has decided to organise a virtual open debate on the Council’s working methods. Estonia, the vice-chair of the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions (IWG), will prepare a concept note for the debate jointly with the chair, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Because the special measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic will still be in effect at the time of the debate, statements by non-Council members are likely to be submitted in writing.  Read more

• Somalia

  In May, the Council is expected to renew its authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), due to expire on 31 May. Before that, the Council is scheduled to be briefed on the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). The mandate for UNSOM expires on 30 June. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In May, the Council is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s report on protection of civilians and hold an open video teleconference to discuss it in lieu of the annual open debate, which will not be held because of the precautions to slow the spread of COVID-19. Non-Council members are invited to participate by sending their written statements to the Council. Secretary-General António Guterres and ICRC President Peter Maurer are expected to brief. Read more

• EU-UN Briefing

  In May, the Council will hold its annual meeting on strengthening the partnership with the EU under its agenda item on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations in maintaining international peace and security. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is expected to brief the Council.  Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In May, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Council members in a closed video teleconference (VTC) on the 90-day report of the committee’s work. Because of the temporary measures adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, the briefing is expected to be held as a closed VTC.  Read more

• Burundi 

  In May, a Secretariat representative is expected to brief the Council on the situation in Burundi, in keeping with quarterly briefings on the issue requested by resolution 2303.  Read more