November 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 October 2018

• Overview

  China has the presidency in November. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our October Forecast Read more

• In Hindsight: Recent Trends in Council Visiting Missions

  In September, the Council undertook its 63rd visiting mission since 1992 when it visited the DRC for the 14th time. The Council has utilised visiting missions more often in recent years, having conducted 13 missions covering 26 countries between January 2016 and October 2018, with five missions in both 2016 and 2017.  Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel

  In November, the Council expects a briefing on the joint force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel) or FC-G5S, which Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger decided to establish in February 2017 to combat terrorist and criminal groups in the region. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is expected to brief. G5 Sahel Permanent Secretary Maman Sidikou is also expected to participate, among other briefers. Read more

• Somalia

  In November, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution on the Somalia and Eritrea sanctions regime. The Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing counter-piracy measures which expire on 7 November.   Read more

• Libya

  In November, the Council is expected to receive briefings by the Special Representative and head of UNSMIL, Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden). Additionally, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver the semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. The Council is also scheduled to adopt a resolution extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and renewing measures related to the illicit export of crude oil from Libya. At press time, it appeared possible that the resolution would be adopted before the end of October. The mandate of UNSMIL expires on 15 September 2019, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts expires on 15 November. Read more

• Syria

  In November, the Council expects to receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In November, the Council is expected to hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and to renew the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA). High Representative Valentin Inzko is expected to brief on the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In November, the Council will receive a briefing on UN policing from Under-Secretary-General for UN Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and the heads of police components of three UN peacekeeping operations: Unaisi Lutu Vuniwaqa, UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Police Commissioner; Awale Abdounasir, UN Organization Stabilization Operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) Police Commissioner; and Serge Therriault, UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) Police Commissioner. No formal outcome is anticipated from the meeting.  Read more

• Central African Republic

  In November, the Council will renew the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), and the authorisation for French forces in the CAR to use all means to support MINUSCA at the request of the Secretary-General, which expire on 15 November Read more

• Iraq

  In November, the Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Ján Kubiš, is scheduled to brief the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI and the most recent developments. UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 May 2019. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In November, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) prior to its 15 November expiration. Read more

• Kosovo

  In November, the Council expects a briefing on the situation in Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. Serbia is likely to participate at a high level while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

• AU-UN Cooperation

  In November, the Council will hold an open debate on enhancing African capacities in peacekeeping operations. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief, as is a representative from the AU. Read more

• Lebanon

  In November, the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Briefings are expected from Pernille Dahler Kardel, Acting Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and possibly from a representative of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In November, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Karel van Oosterom (Netherlands), is expected to provide Council members with his regular 90-day briefing on the work of the committee. Read more