May 2022 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview

  In May, the US will hold the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

• In Hindsight: Challenging the Power of the Veto

  The veto power conferred by the UN Charter is, after permanency itself, the most significant distinction between permanent and non-permanent members of the Security Council. The UN would not have been founded without the five permanent members having the power... Read more

• Status Update since our April Forecast

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Ukraine

  In May, the Security Council is expected to hold an open briefing on the situation in Ukraine. Additional meetings on Ukraine are likely, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Lebanon

  In May, Council members expect to receive their bi-annual briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, this resolution called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, the disarmament of all militias, and the extension of government control over the whole Lebanese territory. A copy of the Secretary-General’s report, which is expected to serve as the basis for the briefing, was circulated to Council members on 22 April. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the expected briefer. Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In May, the Security Council will hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). High Representative for BiH Christian Schmidt is expected to brief on the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR). The current authorisation for the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) expires on 3 November 2022. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  Expected Council Action In May, the Council expects to renew the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). The Council is also expected to extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM),... Read more

• Yemen

  In May, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen, followed by closed consultations. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from OCHA will brief. Major General Michael Beary, the head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), is expected to brief during consultations. Read more

• Iraq

  In May, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). UNAMI’s current mandate expires on 27 May. The Special Representative and head of UNAMI, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, is scheduled to brief the Council on recent developments in Iraq and the Secretary-General’s upcoming reports on UNAMI and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property. Both reports are due in May. The briefing will be followed by closed consultations. Read more

• Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force

  In May, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the counter-terrorism Joint Force of the Group of Five for the Sahel (FC-G5S), established in 2017 by Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (G5 Sahel). Read more

• Conflict and Food Security

  In May, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on conflict and food security as a signature event of the US Council presidency. Read more

• Somalia

  In May, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, to discuss the situation in Somalia. Special Representative for Somalia and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) James Swan and an AU representative are the expected briefers. The Council is also scheduled to vote on a resolution renewing the mandate of UNSOM. Read more

• Syria

  In May, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly meetings on the political, humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks in Syria. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In May, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mona Juul (Norway), is expected to brief Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report regarding the Committee’s work. Read more

• Sudan

  In May, the Security Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. The mandate of UNITAMS expires on 3 June 2022. Read more

• Protection of Civilians

  In May, the Council will hold its annual open debate on the protection of civilians (PoC) in armed conflict.  Council members are expected to receive the Secretary-General’s annual PoC report by mid-May. Read more

• South Sudan

  In May, the Council expects to vote on a draft resolution to renew the South Sudan sanctions regime—including targeted sanctions and the arms embargo—which expires on 31 May and the mandate of the South Sudan Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts, which expires on 1 July, as set out in resolution 2577. Read more

• Libya

  In May, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in Libya. As the Secretary-General has yet to appoint a Special Envoy, a representative of the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs may brief the Council. The chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti (India), is also scheduled to brief on the committee’s activities. Read more