March 2025 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview   

  In March, Denmark will hold the presidency of the Security Council.   Read more

• In Hindsight: The US Pivot on Ukraine and Shifting Security Council Dynamics

  On 24 February, the Security Council adopted resolution 2774, a short US-authored text calling for a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine war and urging a lasting peace between the countries. Marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, it was the first substantive resolution on Ukraine passed by the Council since the war began in February 2022. The resolution underscored a major shift in the geopolitical landscape, highlighting Washington’s evolving approach to the war and exposing fractures among the P3 (France, the UK, and the US). Earlier in the day, the General Assembly voted on competing resolutions—one authored by European Union (EU) member states and another by the US—after the US unexpectedly introduced its own text, omitting references to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, triggering a diplomatic standoff with Kyiv and its European allies. The divisions that emerged during the votes in both the Security Council and the General Assembly could signal a broader realignment in global diplomacy—one that could potentially reshape transatlantic relations, Council dynamics, and the future of international engagement on Ukraine. Read more

• Status Update since our February Forecast  

  This is the Status Update since our February Forecast. Read more

• Syria

  In March, the Council expects to hold two meetings on Syria: one on political and humanitarian issues, and another on the chemical weapons track. Read more

• Yemen

  In March, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg (via videoconference), a representative of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and a civil society representative are expected to brief. The mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) expires on 14 July. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In March, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UNAMA’s current mandate expires on 17 March. The Council is also scheduled to convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNAMA Roza Otunbayeva and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the briefing. Read more

• Lebanon

  In March, Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. The Secretary-General’s report, which is due on 11 March, will cover the period from 21 October 2024 to 20 February. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix are the anticipated briefers.  Council members will be following regional developments, including in Lebanon and Israel, and will assess whether additional Council action is required.  Read more

• Sudan

  In March, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee. One or more additional meetings on Sudan could be held in March depending on developments, given the unstable situation in the country. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In March, Council members will hold the quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan. UNDOF’s mandate, which is typically renewed every six months, expires on 30 June 2025. Read more

• UN Peacekeeping

  In March, the Security Council will hold a high-level open debate on “Ensuring adaptability in UN Peace Operations—responding to realities”. Denmark’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, will chair the meeting, which is a signature event of Denmark’s Council presidency this month. The briefers may include Secretary-General António Guterres and a civil society representative. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In March, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The anticipated briefer is Bintou Keita, the Special Representative and Head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO). Read more

• Haiti

  In March, the members of the Security Council may discuss the Secretary-General’s 24 February letter containing strategic recommendations on the UN role in support of Haiti. Members might evaluate options for Council action to implement the Secretary-General’s recommendations. Read more