December 2020 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2020 Download Forecast:
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  • Overview 

    South Africa has the presidency in December. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Signature Events in 2020 and Emerging Security Threats

    The Security Council presidency, which rotates monthly in English-language alphabetical order, is an opportunity for Council members to showcase their foreign policy interests and goals. The “signature event”—convened as a debate, open debate, briefing or, during the COVID-19 pandemic, as open videoconferences (VTC)—is a prime vehicle for doing so. In contrast to meetings the Council is required to hold, whether to renew mandates of peace operations or discuss some reports of the Secretary-General, signature events are strictly optional, held at the discretion of the president. They have usually, but not always, been on thematic issues, and often take months to plan. Typically, Council members will hold one or two signature events during their respective presidencies, although on occasion a member has held more—or none at all. For elected members, with one or at most two presidencies during their two-year Council terms, the signature event can be a way of advancing particular priority issues and leaving their imprint on the Council’s work. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our November Forecast Read more

  • Iran

    In December, the Council is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which in 2015 endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Council also expects reports from the Joint Commission, established by the parties to the JCPOA to oversee its implementation, and from the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Philippe Kridelka (Belgium). Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Kridelka, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission, are also expected to brief the Council in a videoconference (VTC).  Read more

  • Security Sector Reform

    In December, Council president South Africa is expected to convene a ministerial-level debate on “Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSR)”. South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, will preside over the meeting, which will be held via videoconference. AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Smaїl Chergui is expected to brief. Representatives of several member states that are on the Council agenda and that have undertaken SSR processes, including Colombia, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Iraq, are expected to participate in accordance with rule 37 of the provisional rules of procedure. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In December, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) ahead of considering an extension of the mission’s mandate, which expires on 20 December. Read more

  • Somalia

    In December, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing counter-piracy measures off the coast of Somalia that expire on 4 December. The authorisation for the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 28 February 2021. The mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) expires on 31 August 2021. Read more

  • Virtual Head of State and Government-level Debate on Cooperation Between the UN and AU 

    As president of the Security Council in December, the last month of its two-year term as an elected member, South Africa is organising a high-level videoconference (VTC) debate on cooperation between the UN and the AU peace and security architectures. Read more

  • Sudan

    In December, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) and the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). The briefing is expected to cover the Secretary-General's 90-day report on both missions due in December as requested in resolutions 2524 and 2525, as well as the joint AU/UN special report on UNAMID, requested in resolution 2525, which members received on 13 November. The Council will also receive the semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, related to the Court’s work on Darfur. The chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia), is expected to provide the quarterly briefing on the committee’s work. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Ahead of the mandate renewal, the Department of Peace Operations is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due in December, and the most recent developments. Read more

  • UNOCA (Central Africa) 

    In December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), is expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army.  Read more

  • Syria

    In December, the Security Council expects to hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations and on the use of chemical weapons in Syria.   Read more

  • Yemen

    In December, the Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. Read more

  • International Criminal Tribunals

    In December, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures. The IRMCT’s president, Judge Carmel Agius, and its prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, are expected to brief during the debate and to meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to this. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In December, the Council will be briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, which members expect to receive by 7 December. Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy (Viet Nam), chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, is also expected to brief on South Sudan sanctions. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. An outcome on sanctions is possible. Read more

  • Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies

    Every December the outgoing chairs of subsidiary bodies provide a briefing on their experience. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In December, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. Deborah Lyons, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), is expected to brief on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the mission, due on 10 December. The Council will also be briefed by Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indonesia) in his capacity as chair of the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee and by Shkula Zadran, Afghanistan’s Youth Representative to the UN. Additionally, the Security Council will need to renew the mandate of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee before its 17 December expiry. Read more

  • International Court of Justice

    In December, the Council will hold a briefing on “the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law, focusing on strengthening the cooperation between the Security Council and the International Court of Justice (ICJ)”. The president of the ICJ, Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf, is expected to brief. The briefing is an initiative of South Africa as president of the Security Council in December. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

Posted 30 November 2020  • Download Complete Forecast: PDF