October 2024 Monthly Forecast

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• Overview

  In October, Switzerland will hold the presidency of the Security Council. Read more

• In Hindsight: Does the Security Council Matter?

  The six years I’ve spent as Security Council Report’s (SCR) Executive Director have been eventful. SCR has observed and documented the Council’s actions on dramatically changing situations including the COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine, and Gaza, and on major policy shifts, such as the UN financing of AU peace support operations. Day in and day out, SCR has interacted with Council members, other member states, regional bodies, the UN Secretariat, academia, and civil society in order to produce impartial, nuanced and fact-checked reports on issues before the Security Council. I feel privileged to have held this position, in which I have learned a great deal. Stepping down, I offer some reflections on the Security Council’s impact on international peace and security. Read more

• Status Update since our September Forecast  

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, the resolution called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, the disarmament of all militias, and the extension of government control over the whole Lebanese territory. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer. Council members are also likely to watch developments in Lebanon, Israel, and the region closely and evaluate whether additional Council action is required. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In October, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security (WPS), which will be titled: “Women Building Peace in a Changing Environment”. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, and one or more civil society representatives are the anticipated briefers. The open debate will be chaired by the President of the Swiss Confederation, Viola Amherd, and is one of the signature events of Switzerland’s presidency. Read more

• UN-AU Cooperation

  In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the African Union (AU). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee and AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye are the expected briefers. Read more

• Somalia

  In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, to discuss the situation in Somalia. In addition, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which expires on 31 October. In accordance with resolution 2748 of 15 August, which reauthorised the African Union (AU) Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) until 31 December, the Secretary-General is expected to provide a comprehensive update by 11 October on the overall mission design and financing options for the proposed successor mission to ATMIS. The Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting to discuss this update with the AU and Somalia, with the participation of the UN Secretariat. The Chair of the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kazuyuki Yamazaki (Japan), is also expected to brief on the work of the committee. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In October, the Council will hold its quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan. The mandate of UNDOF expires on 31 December 2024. Read more

• Great Lakes Region (DRC)

  In October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide the biannual briefing to the Council on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region. Read more

• Libya

  In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), which expires on 31 October.  Additionally, the Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya. Read more

• Yemen

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. Read more

• Colombia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments in Colombia and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, which was circulated to Council members on 26 September (S/2024/694). A civil society representative is also expected to brief. Switzerland, the Council's president in October, will apparently encourage a focus on issues relating to women, peace and security (WPS) at the meeting. The Council is also scheduled to renew the verification mission’s mandate ahead of its 31 October expiry. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October. Ahead of the mandate renewal, Council members will receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s annual report on the situation concerning Western Sahara, which member states anticipate receiving by 1 October. Read more

• Anticipating the Impact of Scientific Developments on International Peace and Security

  In October, Switzerland plans to convene a high-level briefing on “Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security”, under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item. This is one of the signature events of the Swiss presidency. Read more

• Haiti

  In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the Haiti sanctions regime, which was established by resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022. Additionally, the Council will hold its 90-day briefing on the situation in Haiti. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In October, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza is expected to brief. The mandate of MINUSCA expires on 15 November. Read more

• Syria

  In October, the Security Council will hold a meeting on the political process and the humanitarian situation in Syria. Read more

• Sudan

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing on the situation in Sudan. Pursuant to resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which terminated the mandate of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), the Security Council requested the Secretary-General to provide a briefing every 120 days on the “UN’s efforts to support Sudan on its path towards peace and stability”. In line with resolution 2736 of 13 June, the Secretary-General is also expected to present recommendations for the protection of civilians (PoC) in Sudan, ahead of the briefing in October. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  Expected Council Action In October, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to... Read more

• Kosovo

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its second briefing of the year on the situation in Kosovo. Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest report. Read more