December 2018 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2018
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  • Overview

    Côte d'Ivoire will have the presidency in December. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update since our November Forecast Read more

  • In Hindsight: Better Process for Better Mandates

    A core task of the Security Council is to design the mandates of UN peace operations and assess their implementation. Central as mandate-crafting is to its work, the Council’s products have been criticised for not responding adequately to realities on the ground, for being circumscribed by political and cost considerations of member states rather than driven by what the situation demands, and for lacking strategic focus. Read more

  • Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

    In December, the Council will hold a high-level briefing, chaired by Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, on post-conflict economic recovery. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief. Read more

  • UNOCA/LRA

    In December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of UNOCA, is expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN regional strategy to combat the LRA. The mandate of UNOCA expires on 31 August 2021. Read more

  • Syria

    In December, the Council will receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons. Council members are expected to negotiate the renewal of the authorisation for cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access, which was most recently extended through resolution 2393 and expires on 10 January 2019. Read more

  • Cooperation between the UN and Regional and Sub-Regional Organisations

    In December, the Security Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations in the prevention and resolution of conflicts. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief. Read more

  • International Criminal Tribunals

    In December, the Security Council expects to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures. The IRMCT’s president, Judge Theodor Meron, is expected to brief the Council during the debate on the IRMCT’s semi-annual progress report and to meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to the debate. The IRMCT’s prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, may also brief the Council. Council members expect to receive the IRMCT’s most recent semi-annual progress report by 3 December. Read more

  • Guinea-Bissau

    In December, the Council is expected to receive a briefing and hold consultations on Guinea-Bissau. Read more

  • Haiti

    In December, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the situation in Haiti and consider the most recent report on the implementation of resolution 2410, adopted on 10 April, which extended under Chapter VII of the UN Charter the mandate of the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH). Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In December, the Security Council expects to receive the semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor related to the court’s work on Darfur. Also in December, Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the committee’s work. The mandate of the UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) expires on 30 June 2019. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In December, the Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, as requested in resolution 2406, and a briefing on South Sudan sanctions. Council members expect to receive the Secretary-General’s report by 10 December and will also receive his monthly report on violations of the Status of Forces Agreement or obstructions to the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of UNDOF, which expires on 31 December. DPKO is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the latest 90-day report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF and the most recent developments. A meeting of Council members and UNDOF troop-contributing countries ahead of the mandate renewal is also expected to take place, in line with usual practice. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    In December, the Council will hold its quarterly debate on Afghanistan and will consider the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMA. Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA, is expected to brief. A civil society representative might also brief.   The mandate of UNAMA expires on 17 March 2019. Read more

  • Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council Subsidiary Bodies

    Every December since 2002, the outgoing chairs of subsidiary bodies have provided a briefing on their experience. Read more

  • Iran

    In December, the Secretary-General will report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Council is also expected to receive reports from the Joint Commission, established by the parties to the JCPOA to oversee its implementation, and from the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Karel van Oosterom (the Netherlands). Briefings are expected from Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, van Oosterom, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission. Read more

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