July 2019 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 June 2019 Download Forecast:
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  • Overview

    Peru has the presidency in July. Read more

  • In Hindsight: The Relationship between the Security Council and the General Assembly

    In June, the General Assembly elected five new members to serve two-year terms on the Security Council. This event highlights the interactions between these political organs of the UN system, which also include the election of the UN Secretary-General by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Council, and the simultaneous voting of both organs for members of the International Court of Justice, among other forms of engagement. It seems useful, in the wake of the elections to the Council, to consider how the relationship between the Council and the General Assembly can be strengthened. Read more

  • Status Update since our June Forecast

    Status Update since our June Forecast Read more

  • Libya

    In July, the Council is expecting briefings by the Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Ghassan Salamé, and the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Germany, Ambassador Jürgen Schulz. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 15 September 2019, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 February 2020. Read more

  • Colombia

    The Council is planning a visiting mission to Colombia in July, to be led jointly by Peru and the UK. Later in the month, the Council will receive a briefing by Carlos Ruiz Massieu, the Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia, with consultations expected to follow the briefing. The mandate of the verification mission expires on 25 September. Read more

  • UNRCCA (Central Asia)

    Expected Council Action In July, the Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), Natalia Gherman, is expected to brief the Council in consultations on UNRCCA’s activities. UNRCCA is a UN special... Read more

  • Syria

    Expected Council Action In July, the Council will receive the monthly briefings on the humanitarian situation, the political process, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Key Recent Developments The situation in north-western Syria, particularly in southern Idlib, northern... Read more

  • Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Organised Crime

    In July, the Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the linkages between terrorism and organised crime. The briefers are expected to be Under-Secretary-General Yuri Fedotov, Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC); Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) Michèle Coninsx; and Tamara Makarenko, chief operating officer of Sibylline, a strategic risk consultancy firm based in the UK. A resolution may be adopted during the open debate or later in the month. Read more

  • Peace Operations

    Expected Council Action In July, the Council is expected to hold a debate on improving triangular cooperation between the Council, the Secretariat, and troop- and police-contributing countries (TCCs/PCCs). The Council will be briefed by the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Jean-Pierre... Read more

  • Yemen

    In July, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, is expected to brief the Council on the implementation of resolutions 2451 and 2452. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock and General Michael Lollesgaard, the chair of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC) and head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), are also likely to brief.The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of UNMHA, which expires on 16 July. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In July, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Ambassador Mansour Al-Otaibi (Kuwait) will brief in his capacity as chair of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee. Read more

  • International Criminal Tribunals

    In July, the Security Council expects to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures. The IRMCT’s president, Judge Carmel Agius, who assumed the presidency on 19 January, is expected to brief during the debate and to meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to this. The IRMCT’s prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, may also brief the Council. No outcome is expected. Read more

  • Youth, Peace and Security

    In July, the Security Council expects a briefing on the implementation of the youth, peace and security agenda. Jayathma Wickramanayake, the Secretary-General’s Envoy on Youth, is likely to brief the Council. Read more

  • Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

    During its July presidency, Peru is planning a briefing on strengthening partnerships for nationally owned transitions. Peru’s Foreign Minister Néstor Popolizio is expected to chair the session, which is expected to include briefings by the Secretary-General and the chair of Peacebuilding Commission, Ambassador Guillermo Fernández de Soto Valderrama (Colombia). Representatives of the World Bank and African Development Bank may also brief. Read more

  • Lebanon (1701)

    In July, the Council expects to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant group Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Briefings are expected from Ján Kubiš, Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and possibly a representative of the Department of Peace Operations. The mandate of UNIFIL expires on 31 August. Read more

  • Haiti

    In July, the Security Council is expected to hold consultations to discuss the transition of the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) to a special political mission that will start on 16 October. It will also be briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report which is due on 11 July. The mandate of MINUJUSTH expires on 15 October. Read more

  • Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

    In July, the Security Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, focusing on Israel/Palestine. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is likely to brief. There may also be a briefer from civil society. Read more

  • UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel

    In July, Mohammed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), will brief the Council on developments in the region and the semi-annual UNOWAS report. Read more

  • Cyprus

    In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 July expiry. Special Representative and head of mission Elizabeth Spehar is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report and recent developments. A representative from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs might also brief.  Read more

Posted 28 June 2019  • Download Complete Forecast: PDF