July 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 July 2026
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AMERICAS

Colombia

Expected Council Action

In July, the Security Council is expected to hold its quarterly meeting on Colombia. Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Miroslav Jenča will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2026/528), which was circulated to Council members on 26 June and covers developments since 27 March.

The verification mission’s mandate expires on 31 October.

Key Recent Developments

The second quarter of 2026 saw a significant change in the political landscape in Colombia, as the country concluded the second round of its presidential elections on 21 June. Abelardo de la Espriella of the “Defensores de la Patria” movement, a former criminal defence attorney who ran as an independent candidate, received 49.6 percent of the vote, securing a razor-thin victory over Iván Cepeda of the “Pacto Histórico”, who received 48.7 percent of the vote. De la Espriella’s victory signifies a shift to the right after the four-year term of President Gustavo Petro Urrego, Colombia’s first leftist president. De la Espriella will begin his four-year term on 7 August.

The Secretary-General’s report noted that the elections were held in a generally peaceful manner, although the run-up to the elections saw several significant instances of violence against candidates from across the political spectrum. In a 25 June statement, Secretary-General António Guterres underscored the UN’s readiness to work with the incoming administration and to “continue supporting nationally led efforts to advance peace and security, sustainable development and prosperity for all Colombians”.

The new administration will take office shortly before the tenth anniversary of the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP), which will be marked in November. At this crucial juncture, the Secretary-General’s report continues to present a mixed picture, noting that important advances in implementation of the agreement occurred alongside persistent challenges. Petro’s administration focused on rural reform, delivering almost 370,000 hectares to peasants, rural women, and victims out of the goal of three million hectares outlined in the peace agreement. The report also stresses that the successful reintegration of the over 11,000 demobilised former FARC-EP combatants remains “key to consolidating lasting peace and security”, describing gaps in the allocation of land, housing, and sustainable economic opportunities.

As in the past, the most recent Secretary-General’s report describes persistent violence that continues to hinder implementation of several aspects of the peace agreement. During the period covered by the Secretary-General’s report, the mission verified the killing of one former combatant, bringing the number of ex-FARC killed since the signing of the peace agreement to 493. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that, between 27 March and 1 June, 5,272 people were displaced and 9,553 confined across 17 municipalities in seven departments, with approximately 58 percent of those affected belonging to ethnic communities. The Secretary-General’s report describes several severe security incidents, including a 25 April improvised explosive device (IED) attack in the Cauca Department by the armed group known as Estado Mayor Central (EMC) that hit a passenger bus and other civilian vehicles, killing 21 civilians and wounding 35 others.

De la Espriella has criticised the 2016 peace agreement, arguing that it has failed to bring security to the country. He has also denounced the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP), the judicial component of the transitional justice system established by the accord, threatening to close the Court. Judicial experts have noted that, since the creation of the SJP has a constitutional basis, any attempt to dismantle it would require a constitutional reform approved by Congress through a new legislative act, which would be unlikely.

In a 26 June letter to de la Espriella, signatories to the peace agreement reaffirmed their continued commitment to the accord and urged the government to uphold its obligation to implement the agreement, including by prioritising the issue in the country’s 2026–2030 National Development Plan.

Issues relating to insecurity featured prominently during the recent electoral campaign. De la Espriella’s platform pledged to crack down on armed groups by increasing military deployments, enhancing coordination with private security companies, and accelerating the eradication of illicit crops through fumigation, among other means. The president-elect has also criticised Petro’s “total peace” policy, which involved dialogue efforts with armed groups operating in the country, and has stated that his approach to security does not “involve open negotiations with armed groups”.

Some analysts have noted that it remains to be seen which campaign promises would be translated into policies once the new administration takes office. They have warned, however, that past experience in Colombia demonstrates that military means alone have failed to curb violence; have expressed concern about potential adverse effects on civilians; and have emphasised that cautious approaches are needed to resolve the root causes of current insecurity, which is deeply rooted in inequality. Such approaches include fostering economic opportunities that would prevent children and young people from joining armed groups.

The Secretary-General’s report similarly underscores that insecurity is driven by disputes among armed groups over the control of territory and illicit economies in areas with limited state presence. It notes in this regard that addressing this situation “will require patient, sustained and coordinated actions to fill these security, governance and development vacuums, ensuring the protection of communities while addressing the deeper underlying causes”. It further emphasises that comprehensive implementation of the peace agreement offers a framework to address these challenges, including through its security guarantees mechanisms and provisions aimed at tackling inequality, such as rural reform.

In the past quarter, discussions have continued regarding the establishment of a new mechanism to verify implementation of the ethnic chapter of the 2016 agreement and compliance with sentences handed down by the SJP. Both these tasks were removed from the verification mission’s mandate through resolution 2798 of 31 October 2025. (The US insisted that these tasks be removed, while most other Council members strongly advocated for their retention.) The Commission for the Follow-up, Promotion and Verification of the Implementation of the Final Agreement (CSIVI)—the main forum for dialogue between the parties on the implementation of the 2016 agreement—has extended an invitation to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and to the Mission to Support the Peace Process of the Organization of American States (MAPP/OAS) to participate in such a mechanism. Scott Campbell, OHCHR’s representative in Colombia, apparently discussed the issue with some Council members and other member states during a mid-June visit to New York.

Human Rights-Related Developments

Following an 11-day visit to Bogotá, Quibdó, Cartagena, and Cali, the International Independent Mechanism to Advance Racial Justice and Equality in Law Enforcement concluded that structural, systemic, and historical racism persists in Colombia. While recognising good measures undertaken by the government to address these issues, the Mechanism nevertheless observed discriminatory practices against people of African descent during interactions with law enforcement and the justice system, uncovering inhumane conditions of detention, racial profiling, and police violence. In light of these findings, the Mechanism called on Colombia to ensure accountability for cases of racial discrimination and police violence, and to address the humanitarian crisis in transitional detention centres, among other recommendations.

Key Issues and Options

As there may be some uncertainties during the upcoming transition period in Colombia, sustained international support for the 2016 peace agreement is key. With this month’s meeting taking place shortly before a new administration takes office in Colombia, Council members could emphasise the government’s responsibility to facilitate implementation of the accord. One option is to convey such messages in a press statement. Such a product could also stress the importance of increased dialogue among the parties to the peace agreement, including through mechanisms such as the CSIVI. In June, the outgoing government issued a decree extending the CSIVI until December 2031.

The effects of the conflict on children in Colombia are an ongoing matter of concern. The Secretary-General’s most recent annual report on children and armed conflict, dated 16 June, notes that the UN verified 575 grave violations against 449 children in Colombia in 2025. In particular, the report expresses concern about the persistently high number of children who were recruited and used (371), including through social media platforms. It further voices alarm about the disproportionate impact of violations on Indigenous and Afro-Colombian children, who “face compounded risks due to structural discrimination and limited access to protection and services”. Council members may seek more information on how the international community can support the Colombian government’s efforts to tackle these issues, including by inviting relevant briefers such as the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict or a senior UNICEF official to brief in its July meeting.

Council Dynamics

Colombia had previously been considered a file that enjoyed Council consensus. However, strains in the bilateral relationship between Colombia and the US, stemming from disagreements between Petro and US President Donald Trump, particularly in 2025, have created significant challenges in the Council’s engagement on the file. These difficult dynamics were evident in the contentious negotiations on resolution 2798, which last renewed the verification mission’s mandate, and in the fact that Council members have not adopted any press statements on Colombia since October 2024, although it had previously been the practice for them to do so after every quarterly meeting.

The advent of a new administration in Colombia may herald a shift in Council dynamics on the file. Trump has endorsed de la Espriella, praising his commitment to tackling drugs and crime, promoting trade, and curtailing illegal immigration. The president-elect has made cooperation with the US, including on curbing the drug trade from the country, a key pillar of his campaign. It is therefore more likely that Colombia’s positions would now be more aligned with those of the US, both on its own file and in its engagement on other files as an elected Council member.

The UK is the penholder on Colombia.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA

Security Council Resolutions
31 October 2025S/RES/2798 This resolution renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia for another year, until 31 October 2026. It removed two of the mission’s tasks: verifying compliance with the restorative sentences handed by the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP) and monitoring implementation of the 2016 agreement’s ethnic chapter.
Security Council Meeting Records
21 April 2026S/PV.10141 This was the latest quarterly meeting on Colombia.

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