July 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 July 2026
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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action

In July, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Khassim Diagne is expected to brief Council members on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming reports on UNFICYP and on his good offices mission in Cyprus.

UNFICYP’s mandate expires on 31 January 2027.

Key Recent Developments

Over the past six months, UN efforts to sustain diplomatic momentum on Cyprus have continued through regular engagement with the two Cypriot leaders and renewed attention to trust-building initiatives. While the parties have not agreed on conditions for resuming formal negotiations, the election of Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman in October 2025 has contributed to a more sustained pattern of dialogue with Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides, including several meetings under UN auspices and direct meetings without international facilitation.

The Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, travelled to the island in late January for consultations with the two leaders. On 28 January, Christodoulides, Erhürman, and Holguín held a trilateral meeting at Diagne’s residence in the buffer zone. The leaders exchanged proposals on moving towards substantive negotiations and reviewed the previously discussed trust-building initiatives. Christodoulides reportedly presented a five-point proposal that included reaffirming the basis of a settlement, tasking the UN with preparing a list of convergences reached before the collapse of talks in Crans-Montana in 2017, convening a new meeting in the expanded 5+1 format, and opening four new crossing points. (The 5+1 format includes the two Cypriot sides and the three guarantor powers—Greece, Türkiye, and the UK—plus the UN.)

On 11 February, Erhürman met with Secretary-General António Guterres in New York, their first meeting since Erhürman’s election. During the meeting, he presented his four-point methodology for the settlement process and reiterated his call for the lifting of restrictions affecting Turkish Cypriots. In a 16 February opinion piece, Holguín described the current phase as one of preparation, arguing that the leaders needed time to build trust, allow ideas to mature, and take small joint decisions before a more formal process could resume. On 24 February, Christodoulides and Erhürman held a one-on-one meeting without international facilitation. Both characterised the meeting, which was held in the buffer zone, as open and frank.

Regional tensions affected the Cyprus issue in March. Following the escalation of hostilities between Israel and the US and Iran, in late February, an Iranian-made drone reportedly struck the runway at RAF Akrotiri, a UK military base in the south of Cyprus, while additional drones were intercepted. In response to the incident, Christodoulides said that the Republic of Cyprus was not participating in any military operation. Subsequent developments, including reported deployments of Greek and Turkish fighter jets to the island and surrounding areas, intensified political rhetoric and renewed debate about the future status of the UK bases.

Tensions also emerged in and around the buffer zone. On 2 April, UNFICYP condemned an incident in Nicosia in which individuals reportedly threw rocks and fireworks at civilians, warning that such acts risked undermining public safety and stability. Later in April, standoffs occurred in Pyla, a village in the buffer zone, after disputes involving Greek Cypriot veterinary inspections and Turkish Cypriot police access, with UN peacekeepers engaging to contain tensions.

Despite these frictions, leader-level engagement continued. On 6 April, Christodoulides and Erhürman met under UN auspices in what the UN described as a “positive atmosphere”, exchanged views on substance and the way forward, and tasked their representatives with finalising remaining issues on trust-building initiatives. On 8 May, the leaders held another meeting in the buffer zone and agreed on a framework for a consultative body for civil society engagement. They also agreed to prepare a plan for the conduct of religious services throughout the island, to work towards a coordinated response to foot-and-mouth disease, and establish a subcommittee to discuss products with protected designations of origin or geographical indications.

On 12 May, Diagne said that “limited but meaningful” progress had been recorded in recent months, citing increased willingness by both leaders to engage in dialogue, agree on confidence-building measures (CBMs), and cooperate across the divide. In June, Holguín launched a further round of shuttle diplomacy, travelling to Cyprus, Ankara, Athens, and Brussels, and engaging in efforts aimed at preparing the ground for a possible 5+1 meeting, potentially in late July or early August.

Human Rights-Related Developments

At the 61st session of the UN Human Rights Council, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Kehris delivered an update on the situation of human rights in Cyprus. In the statement, she underscored that the division of Cyprus since the 1974 Turkish intervention continues to be the most significant obstacle to the full enjoyment of human rights for all people across the island. Effective monitoring and reporting by international human rights mechanisms remain limited owing to the island’s division, contributing to gaps in human rights protection.

Kehris said that the right to non-discrimination and the enjoyment of economic, social, and cultural rights have also been adversely affected, especially for Turkish Cypriot children born from mixed marriages. These children often encounter barriers to free movement and to access to vital services and education due to delays or rejections in their applications for Cypriot nationality. Among other matters, Kehris urged all parties to renew their efforts to resume formal negotiations to attain a just, sustainable solution to the island’s division, in order to advance the full enjoyment of human rights for all people living in Cyprus.

Key Issues and Options

Since the collapse of the 2017 unification talks in Crans-Montana, the key issue for the Security Council has been the absence of sustained progress towards resuming a formal political process. The recent series of meetings between Christodoulides and Erhürman, together with Holguín’s continued shuttle diplomacy, suggests that the parties may be willing to explore a path back to substantive negotiations. However, the two sides remain divided over the parameters, sequencing, and guarantees of any renewed process.

An option for the Council would be to use the upcoming consultations to express support for the Secretary-General’s good offices and encourage the parties to continue direct engagement. Council members could also encourage the parties and guarantor powers to approach any future 5+1 meeting with a view to identifying realistic steps towards substantive negotiations, without prejudging the outcome of such a process.

Another option would be for Holguín to be invited to brief at the forthcoming consultations on Cyprus or in a separate private meeting, a closed format that would allow for the directly affected parties and other invited member states to participate.

The implementation of CBMs is another key issue. Although the leaders have reached understandings on several practical measures, several earlier initiatives remain unresolved. These include the opening of new crossing points, measures related to the Mia Milia/Haspolat wastewater treatment plant, and other steps intended to improve intercommunal contact and economic cooperation.

Council members could encourage Diagne and UNFICYP to continue supporting the work of the bicommunal technical committees and to help the parties identify practical, time-bound steps for implementing agreed CBMs. They could also request that the Secretary-General include concrete benchmarks for progress in these areas in his next good offices report.

Council Dynamics

Cyprus remains a low-intensity issue on the Council’s agenda. Permanent members with a vested interest in Cyprus include France, Russia, and the UK, which also serves as the penholder on the issue and is one of the three guarantor powers. Greece, which is serving as a non-permanent member of the Security Council in 2025-2026, is another key stakeholder in relation to UNFICYP and the Cyprus peace process, given its role as a guarantor power.

Council members remain broadly supportive of UNFICYP and of efforts by the Secretary-General and his Personal Envoy to sustain dialogue between the two sides. The January renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate, however, was not unanimous, with Pakistan and Somalia abstaining on resolution 2815 over concerns about certain aspects of the Council’s approach to mandated language. (For more information, see our 29 January What’s in Blue story.)

The Council continues to support a settlement based on a bicommunal, bizonal federation with political equality, as set out in relevant Security Council resolutions. Members differ, however, on how much pressure the Council should place on the parties and on whether benchmarks or timelines should be linked to the political process or to adjustments in UNFICYP’s mandate. Some members have previously supported a comprehensive strategic review of the mission and timed benchmarks for an exit strategy tied to progress in the political process. Russia has consistently opposed external interference or efforts to impose solutions or timelines that could influence the peace talks.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS
Security Council Resolutions
30 January 2026S/RES/2815 This extended the mandate of UNFICYP until 31 January 2027.
Secretary-General’s Reports
5 January 2026S/2026/8 This was the Secretary-General’s report on the UN operation in Cyprus.
5 January 2026S/2026/9 This was the Secretary-General’s report on his mission of good offices in Cyprus.

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