Somalia
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In January the Council is expected to renew the authorisation of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The current authorisation expires on 31 January as decided in resolution 1872 of 26 May 2009. AMISOM’s AU mandate expires on 17 January and is expected to be renewed.
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In November the Council is expecting a report on implementation of resolution 1846 of 2 December 2008 which authorised states and regional organisations to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to combat piracy. A Council debate with a briefing by the International Maritime Organization is a possibility.
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At press time the Council was expecting the Secretary-General’s report, due 30 September, on progress in implementing the three-phased approach towards the eventual deployment of a UN peacekeeping operation in Somalia (endorsed by the Council on 26 May in resolution 1872).
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Somalia is not expected to be on the Council work programme as such in August. However, because of interrelated issues, including the work by the Somalia Sanctions Committee on a list of individuals and entities for targeted sanctions (including possibly persons from Eritrea), the pressure for Council action against Eritrea from Djibouti, and the dynamics created by recent developments in Somalia (including French personnel being held hostage), it seems inevitable that Council members will be continuing to discuss Somalia in various ways during August.
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The Secretary-General’s report on implementation of the phased approach towards the eventual deployment of a UN peacekeeping operation, requested by the Council on 26 May in resolution 1872, is due by 30 September, but it is unlikely that the Council will take up the report in September.
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In July the Council will receive the Secretary-General’s regular report on Somalia. A briefing is likely. There is also a possibility of a Council open debate due to the growing concerns about the security situation.
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At press time Somalia was not scheduled to be discussed by the Council in June, but Council members are likely to monitor the situation closely in light of the recent increase in insurgent attacks against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG).
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In May the Council is expected to discuss the Secretary-General’s recommendations in his 16 April report which concluded that a UN peacekeeping mission was not advisable at this time. In resolution 1863, adopted on 16 January, the Council said it would decide on this issue by 1 June. Consultations and a Secretariat briefing are anticipated early in May.
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The Secretary-General is due to report by 15 April on a possible UN peacekeeping deployment to Somalia as requested by resolution 1863. The Council has signaled that it wants to decide by 1 June whether to authorise such a deployment to replace the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM).
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In March, the Council will receive a report from the Secretary-General. Also in March, the General Assembly is expected to take up the funding of the UN logistical-support package to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) endorsed by the Council on 16 January by resolution 1863.
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The Council expects to receive an initial report from the Secretary-General by 30 January on measures to strengthen the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as requested in resolution 1863 of 16 January. In February the Council is likely to receive a more comprehensive report and briefing.
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In December the Council will receive a report from the Monitoring Group tasked with investigating violations of the arms embargo established by resolution 733. Its mandate expires on 20 December and is likely to be renewed. The Council is also likely to renew the provision in resolution 1816 authorising states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to combat piracy that expires on 2 December. Addressing the rapidly deteriorating situation inside Somalia is a possibility.
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The Council is expecting a consolidated report from the Secretary-General, (due on 4 November, but likely to be delayed) which should include four elements: the regular quarterly update on developments in Somalia; a response to the Council’s request in its presidential statement of 4 September that the Secretary-General elaborate contingency plans for a feasible multinational force; the requested update on the implementation of the Djibouti Agreement between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS); and a report on the implementation of resolution 1816 of 2 June 2008 permitting states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to counter piracy.
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The Council is expecting several reports on Somalia: a regular report is due in mid-October; a plan for a “feasible international stabilisation force” and a “concept of operations” for a follow on UN peacekeeping operation have been requested by the Council; and a report on implementation of resolution 1816 of 2 June (which permits states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to counter piracy).
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This report examines in depth the longest running Security Council sanctions measure still in existence (16 years). We have chosen this case because the crisis in Somalia continues to be as serious as it has ever been since 1992. It remains on the Council’s work programme and the humanitarian situation has dramatically worsened in recent months. Somalia is quite possibly the least successful example of Council-imposed sanctions. Historically, all sanctions regimes have presented challenges when it comes to implementation. But the arms embargo imposed on Somalia in 1992 has faced more difficulties than most. This report examines these difficulties. It suggests that some of the problem lay in the situation on the ground. There was no governmental entity with control over Somali territory. There was no customs or border control. But there were also problems the Council could have addressed, including weaknesses in design, unreasonable expectations of reliance on authorities in neighbouring countries to enforce the regime and lack of will to pursue diligently measures to enforce decisions or to adapt when the initial sanctions design proved wholly inadequate.
