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Somalia

Expected Council Action
In December the Council will receive a report from the Monitoring Group tasked with investigating violations of the arms embargo established by resolution 733. Its mandate expires on 20 December and is likely to be renewed. The Council is also likely to renew the provision in resolution 1816 authorising states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to combat piracy that expires on 2 December. Addressing the rapidly deteriorating situation inside Somalia is a possibility.

Recent Developments
On 30 October the Council adopted a presidential statement condemning the 29 October suicide bombings in Hargeysa and Bosasso which killed 28 people, including two UN employees.

On 20 November the Council, after nearly two months of discussions, adopted resolution 1844 on targeted sanctions, expanding the current Somalia sanctions regime to include a travel ban and assets freeze on violators of the arms embargo, individuals who threaten the peace, security and stability of Somalia or impede the delivery of or access to humanitarian assistance. (This is the first time the Council has imposed sanctions related to obstruction of humanitarian assistance.) Negotiations took longer than expected and included discussions on listing and delisting criteria and procedures, a key issue for European members, and the need for a uniform approach across sanctions regimes. The adopted resolution incorporates most of the elements agreed in resolution 1822 of 30 June 2008 on listing and delisting procedures for the 1267 Committee on Al-Qaida and the Taliban.

Anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia seem to have had only a limited effect. There have been several major new hijackings this month, including of a Saudi-owned oil tanker, the largest and most valuable vessel to date captured by Somali pirates.

The Council received the Secretary-General’s report on Somalia on 17 November and on 20 November heard briefings in an open meeting by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Haile Menkerios; Director of the Africa II Division of the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Raisedon Zenenga; and Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Efthimios Mitropoulos, followed by a debate and closed consultations.

In response to the Council’s request for more details on a feasible multinational force (MNF) and possible peacekeeping operation, the Secretary-General stated in his report that deployment of a UN peacekeeping operation would only be possible once security is established in Mogadishu by a robust multinational force. It is assumed that a reinforced AMISOM would be part of such a force. The Secretary-General is still waiting for responses from potential troop contributors for an MNF.

Since the Secretary-General’s report was written, developments in Somalia have taken a turn for the worse. The 26 October ceasefire agreement between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) that went into effect on 5 November has not been reflected in the field. On 12 November insurgents took control of the port city of Merka, 90 kilometres south of Mogadishu, one of the two key delivery points for food aid to Somalia. The capture of Merka represents the most important territorial gain by the insurgents since the fall of Kismayo last August. In a meeting with Somali members of parliament in Kenya, Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed reportedly said that Islamist insurgents controlled most of the country and that the government was on the verge of collapse.

The TFG was unable to meet the deadline of 12 November for appointment of a new cabinet that was set by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) declaration of 29 October. Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein put forward a proposal for a new cabinet before the 12 November deadline, but the list was rejected by the president, revealing once again serious differences between the two leaders. On 17 November Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, issued a statement urging Somalia’s political leaders to put aside their differences and agree on a new cabinet quickly.

At press time Ethiopian troops had yet to begin the withdrawal that according to the 26 October agreement should have started on 21 November. Meanwhile, talks between the TFG and the ARS within the framework of the Djibouti Agreement resumed on 24 November, this time focusing on power sharing.

Key Issues
In December the issue of a possible international force for Somalia (see our November 2008 Forecast) will still be on the table, but it has now become more poignant given the failure in implementation of the Djibouti Agreement and the insurgents’ consolidation of control in Somalia, as well as the continued presence of Ethiopian troops. In light of these developments the prospects for a UN force are equally if not more problematic.

On piracy, a question is whether new measures are needed. Jurisdiction issues related to detention and prosecution of pirates apprehended in international waters have been raised. Some suggest that national laws do not allow their countries to continue to hold pirates because of lack of jurisdiction. The need for more coordination is another issue. The EU has signaled willingness to take on a coordinating role once their joint anti-piracy operation is launched at the beginning of December and has proposed the establishment of a focal point within the Secretariat. Some are asking whether this is an appropriate task for the Military Staff Committee to assist with.

A related issue is whether the piracy problem can in fact be solved as long as the root cause, which is the absence of authority on land in Somalia, has not been dealt with. There is a perception in the humanitarian community that the Council is quick to act when commercial interests are at stake, but unwilling to address the suffering of the Somali civilian population.

In the Somalia Sanctions Committee the key issue for Council members now is whether there is actual political will to implement resolution 1844 and establish a list of individuals and entities to be targeted by the new sanctions resolution. A related issue is how to ensure that the sanctions are effective. They constitute an important tool to punish and potentially deter those who do not support the Djibouti Agreement, violate the arms embargo or impede humanitarian assistance, but it is unclear whether the individuals and entities in question will actually be affected by a travel ban and assets freeze. 

Options
Options for the Council in December include:

• renewing the piracy resolution without any major changes, or
• including some new elements, possibly asking the Secretary-General for recommendations on a coordinating role, and addressing the issue of jurisdiction;
• adopting a resolution renewing the Monitoring Group’s mandate and expanding it to include new tasks in accordance with the new sanctions resolution;
• starting discussions in the Somalia Sanctions Committee on the list of individuals and entities to be targeted by sanctions;
• demanding that Somali leaders resolve their disagreements on the new cabinet and implement previous commitments, and urging all parties in Somalia to join the Djibouti Agreement and observe the ceasefire;
• taking a much more active role in national diplomacy to assist in recruiting countries to contribute to an MNF, building on the momentum that the piracy issue has created and the fact that the multinational force proposed by the Secretary-General in his latest report would include a maritime element to support land-based operations, possibly mandating a naval operation as a first step of an MNF; and
• requesting the Secretary-General to continue contingency planning.

Council Dynamics
Resolution 1844 provides a significant new framework for the Sanctions Committee to ensure an effective sanctions regime for Somalia, but it remains to be seen whether Council members will actually be able to agree on the list of individuals and entities to be targeted. South Africa and other members have had reservations about targeted sanctions all along, arguing that such measures will only make it more difficult to move the political process forward. Some are concerned that the mechanism will be used as an attempt to link Somalia to anti-terrorism efforts given that the US has included Al-Shabaab on its list of terrorist organisations, with adverse long-term impacts on the prospect for peace.

On the wider issues there seems to be general frustration among Council members about the lack of progress in the implementation of the Djibouti Agreement. The Department Of Peacekeeping Operation’s assessment that a UN peacekeeping operation is not feasible under the current circumstances, but has to be preceded by a more robust multinational force, appears to have gained wider acceptance. However, some members, most notably the US and South Africa, still argue that a UN peacekeeping operation must be an option if efforts to establish an MNF fail. 

Other Relevant Facts

Full forecast

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