December 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 26 November 2008
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UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action
On 31 December the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) expires. It was established in May 1974 to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria and supervise areas of separation and limitation.

The Council is expected to follow its usual practice and extend the mandate for another six months, and call upon Israel and Syria to implement resolution 338. This resolution was adopted in 1973 and called on the parties to start negotiations on a just and durable peace and to implement resolution 242 of 1967 on withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied territories. A report of the Secretary-General on UNDOF is also due in December.

A presidential statement is also expected, as has been the practice since 1976, drawing attention to wider issues in the region and noting that the Middle East will remain tense until a comprehensive settlement is reached.

Key Recent Developments
In his latest report on UNDOF, on 16 June, the Secretary-General said that in the previous six months the ceasefire in the Israel-Syria sector had been maintained and the UNDOF area of operation had remained generally quiet. Since June the situation has appeared unchanged.

In early September the latest round of indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel was postponed because of the impending election in Israel. (Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert resigned on 21 September but remains in office until a new government is formed after elections scheduled for 10 February). It is unclear whether and when the talks will resume. Olmert has recently expressed his view that Israel should withdraw from most of the occupied territories, including the Golan Heights.

Key Issues
At this stage there is really no issue before the Council other than the routine renewal of the UN operation.

But a related issue (see our June 2008 Forecast) is how any settlement of the issue of the Sheb’a Farms, which is part of the Golan Heights, might affect UNDOF.

Council Dynamics
There is wide consensus that UNDOF remains useful in the absence of a peace agreement between Israel and Syria.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1821 (27 June 2008) renewed UNDOF until 31 December 2008.
  • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) requested the Secretary-General to develop, in liaison with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, proposals for delineation of the Lebanese borders, especially in the Sheb’a Farms area.
  • S/RES/350 (31 May 1974) established UNDOF.
  • S/RES/338 (22 October 1973) called for a ceasefire and comprehensive peace.
  • S/RES/242 (22 November 1967) called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories.

Latest Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2008/25 (27 June 2008) was the last statement following the renewal of UNDOF.

Latest Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2008/390 (16 June 2008) was the last report on UNDOF

Latest Letter
  • S/2008/676 (28 October 2008) was a letter from Syria condemning a US raid on its territory on 26 October which killed civilians, and demanding that Iraq carry out an investigation. In the letter, Syria also said it expects the Council to hold the US accountable for this and to prevent any repetition of this act, with a view to maintaining security and stability in the Middle East.

Other Relevant Facts

UNDOF Force Commander

Major-General Wolfgang Jilke (Austria)

Size and Composition of Mission (30 September 2008)
  • Size: 1,043 troops, assisted by some 57 military observers of UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan.
  • roop contributors: Austria, Canada, Croatia, India, Japan and Poland

Approved Budget

1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009: $47.86 million (A/C.5/62/30)

Full forecast

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