Liberia
In December the Council is likely to renew the current sanctions regime for Liberia. The arms embargo and travel ban imposed by resolution 1521 in 2003 (and last renewed by resolution 1792 in 2007) expire on 19 December. (The assets freeze imposed by resolution 1532 remains in force and does not require renewal.) On 1 December the final report is due from the Panel of Experts tasked with investigating and reporting on implementation of sanctions. The Panel’s mandate expires on 20 December and is likely to be extended.
Recent Developments
On 29 September the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1836, extending the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) until 30 September 2009. It endorsed the Secretary-General’s recommendations contained in his August progress report, authorising a reduction in UNMIL’s military component of an additional 1,460 troops and an increase in UNMIL’s police component of 240. Furthermore, the Council requested the Secretary-General to provide new recommendations on further adjustments to UNMIL by 15 February and expressed its intention to review these recommendations by 31 March. The Council also asked for a report by 15 August on progress in meeting key security benchmarks for Liberia.
The authorised troop reductions were larger than proposed by the Secretary-General in his initial drawdown plan of 8 August 2007 (S/2007/479). By contrast, the increase in the police component was not foreseen in the initial plan (it envisaged a reduction). The increase reflected the sense in the Council that significant challenges remain in Liberia. It also points to a general concern about the slow progress in meeting key security and rule of law benchmarks. The security situation is generally stable, but still considered fragile. There have been several outbreaks of violence, including mob attacks on police stations and court houses. UNMIL personnel and installations have also been targeted. The high unemployment rate among young people, the activities of ex-combatants, and illegal exploitation of natural resources are potential sources of instability.
The trial in the Special Court for Sierra Leone of former Liberian president Charles Taylor resumed in The Hague on 18 August. On 1 September the Special Court received a request from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Liberia for an audience with Taylor. He refused, as was his right. So far, the trial chamber has heard testimony from more than eighty prosecution witnesses in the Taylor case. Currently the trial, which is being conducted in The Hague because of security concerns, is scheduled to end around July 2009.
In a related development the son of Charles Taylor, the US national Charles “Chuckie” Taylor Jr., was convicted by a Miami jury for torture committed when he was head of a notorious unit in Liberia during his father’s presidency. His case was the first test of a US law allowing the prosecution of citizens who commit torture overseas, known as the extraterritorial torture statute. He is due to be sentenced on 9 January 2009. Various NGOs have described the verdict as a milestone in ensuring justice for the victims of atrocities in Liberia and elsewhere.
Since August the Liberia Sanctions Committee has removed two individuals from the travel ban and assets freeze lists: M. Moussa Cissé (former chief of presidential protocol under Taylor) on 10 September and Charles R. Bright (former Liberian finance minister under Taylor) on 10 November.
Key Issues
In December renewing the sanctions regime will be the key issue. It remains to be seen whether related issues affecting other sanctions regimes will be raised. In the recent negotiations of a new sanctions resolution on Somalia (see separate brief in this Forecast) there seemed to be a concern among some Council members that a more uniform approach across different sanctions regimes is needed, especially related to delisting criteria and procedures. This concern is linked to several recent court challenges of Council counterterrorism sanctions under resolution 1267 (for more details please see our November 2008 Forecast). It is unclear whether it will impact the Liberia discussions as well. Given the very large programme of work in the Council for December and the fact that the holidays make it a short month, it is possible that Council members will have little energy for discussion of more generic issues in the context of Liberia.
Options
One option is to adopt a resolution following the pattern of recent renewals prolonging the arms embargo and travel ban for a further 12 months, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts for six months with a request for a report at the end of the mandate. Another option is to renew the mandate of the Panel for 12 months to ensure consistency with the timeframe for the sanctions.
Council Dynamics
Renewal of the UNMIL mandate in September revealed familiar dynamics. France once again argued for a larger drawdown based on the demand for UN peacekeepers elsewhere, whereas the US and other members wanted a more cautious approach in line with the Secretary-General’s recommendations. In the end France obtained a drawdown over six instead of 12 months and a review clause leaving the door open for a further acceleration of the drawdown based on recommendations to be presented in February 2009, but with no guarantees for any additional reductions before the end of UNMIL’s mandate in September next year.
There seems to be agreement that the current sanctions regime should be maintained for the time being. The general sense is that Liberia is moving in the right direction but security is still seen as fragile and there are concerns about the impact on Liberia from recent developments in neighbouring countries such as Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire. Members are also cautious due to the likely conclusion of the Charles Taylor trial next year, seeing this period as a possible critical point in the consolidation of peace in Liberia.
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Selected Security Council Resolutions |
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Selected Secretary-General’s Reports |
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Other |
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Special Representative of the Secretary-General |
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Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark) |
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UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost |
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• Strength as of 30 September 2008: 11,465 military and 1,037 police |
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UNMIL: Duration |
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September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2009 |
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Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee |
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Giadalla Azuz Ettalhi (Libya) |
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Panel of Experts on Liberia |
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