December 2008 Monthly Forecast

• Iraq-Kuwait

  The Secretary-General’s periodic report to the Council on Iraq’s compliance with resolution 1284 of 1999 is due in early December. This report deals with the repatriation of Kuwaiti and third-country nationals, or their remains, and the return of property following the first Gulf War. The Council is likely to hold consultations and hear a briefing by High-Level Coordinator Gennady P. Tarasov.  Read more

• Overview

  Croatia will hold the presidency of the Council in December. December is always a very full month because of the numerous mandates that come due for renewal. In addition, the Council is likely to be under pressure to maintain an... Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In December the Council will hear the delayed briefing from the High Representative for the Implementation of the Peace Agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia. Read more

• Liberia

  In December the Council is likely to renew the current sanctions regime for Liberia. The arms embargo and travel ban imposed by resolution 1521 in 2003 (and last renewed by resolution 1792 in 2007) expire on 19 December. (The assets freeze imposed by resolution 1532 remains in force and does not require renewal). Read more

• Burundi

  In December the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Burundi (BINUB), which expires on 31 December 2008. If negotiations between the Burundi government and the rebel Palipehutu-FNL (Palipehutu-Forces nationales de libération) are still deadlocked in December, the Council may also discuss ways of moving the process forward bearing in mind the 31 December deadline for completion of the peace process. Read more

• International Tribunals

  On 12 December the Council will receive briefings from the presidents and prosecutors of the International Criminal Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR) on their biannual progress reports about completion strategies for each tribunal. Read more

• Lebanon

  Early in December, the Council will receive a report from the UN International Independent Investigation Commission on the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and others. The Council is expected to receive a public briefing from the Chief Investigator, Daniel Bellemare, and hold consultations, on 16 December. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  The Council is expecting to receive the report of the Secretary-General on the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) in mid-December. The mandate of UNOGBIS expires on 31 December and will therefore come up for renewal. Read more

• Northern Uganda and LRA-Affected Areas

  A briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Lord’s Resistance Army-Affected Areas, Joaquim Chissano, on the peace process between the Ugandan government and the LRA and his future role as envoy is possible. Read more

• Iraq (MNF-I)

  The mandate of the multinational forces in Iraq (MNF-I) expires on 31 December. Resolution 1790, which had renewed the mandate on 18 December 2007, is therefore expected to be the last extension of MNF-I’s mandate, assuming that the bilateral agreement on status of forces (SOFA) between the US and Iraq is approved by Iraq’s parliament. Read more

• Central African Republic

  The Council is expected to discuss the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) in December and renew the mandate of the UN Peacebuilding Office in the Central African Republic (BONUCA) by 31 December. Depending on the recommendations from the Secretary-General, whose report was expected by 30 November, the Council could agree to BONUCA becoming an integrated mission to coordinate the multidimensional aspects of the UN’s activities to confront peacebuilding challenges in the country.   Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for December 2008. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  On 31 December the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) expires. It was established in May 1974 to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria and supervise areas of separation and limitation. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  The report of the Secretary-General on the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) is expected by 30 November, and the Council is expected to discuss it in December. The Under Secretary-General for Field Support, Susana Malcorra, and the Under Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Alain Le Roy, are expected to brief the Council on efforts to expedite the deployment of UNAMID. A briefing by the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, on his work in Sudan is also expected. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  The Council is expected in December to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC), which expires on 31 December and take stock of the situation in eastern DRC in the light of the ongoing crisis and its decision to expand MONUC. Possible options are discussed below. Read more

• Somalia

  In December the Council will receive a report from the Monitoring Group tasked with investigating violations of the arms embargo established by resolution 733. Its mandate expires on 20 December and is likely to be renewed. The Council is also likely to renew the provision in resolution 1816 authorising states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to combat piracy that expires on 2 December. Addressing the rapidly deteriorating situation inside Somalia is a possibility. Read more

• Chad/CAR

  At press time, the Council was awaiting the Secretary-General’s report updating planning for the proposed UN military component to follow on the EU operation in eastern Chad and including options on the size, structure and mandate of the proposed UN military presence in northeastern Central African Republic. Read more

• Cyprus

  In December, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) to 15 June 2009 without change. The mandate expires on 15 December, and the Secretary-General’s report on UNFICYP is expected by 1 December. Read more

• Chad/CAR

  At press time, the Council was awaiting the Secretary-General’s report updating planning for the proposed UN military component to follow on the EU operation in eastern Chad and including options on the size, structure and mandate of the proposed UN military presence in northeastern Central African Republic. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in November 2008. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending for the Council include: The Council is yet to take up the Secretary-General’s recommendations regarding protection of civilians, presented in his October 2007 report (S/2007/643). The 2005 World Summit requested that the Security Council consider reforms for... Read more