December 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 26 November 2008
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Overview

Croatia will hold the presidency of the Council in December. December is always a very full month because of the numerous mandates that come due for renewal. In addition, the Council is likely to be under pressure to maintain an ongoing role with respect to the crisis in eastern DRC.

Croatia will host an open debate on Global Security and International Terrorism, scheduled for 9 December. Croatian President Stjepan Mesić is expected to preside. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. An open debate on protection of civilians, delayed from November at the request of OCHA, is also possible but pressure on time in December may make this impossible.

An open debate on the Middle East is also expected, as well as a debate on Burundi.

Developments in several situations will be closely watched. These include Somalia, DRC and Guinea-Bissau.

The Council will likely receive briefings on:

  • the deployment of UNAMID in Darfur by the Under Secretaries-General for Field Support and Peacekeeping Operations;
  • the ICC’s work in Sudan by Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo;
  • the November Council visit to Afghanistan;
  • Iraq’s compliance with resolution 1284 regarding the repatriation of Kuwaiti and third-country nationals by the High-Level Coordinator Gennady P. Tarasov;
  • the biannual reports from the ICTR and the ICTY, from their respective presidents and perhaps also Belgium as the chair of the Council’s working group on tribunals;
  • Guinea Bissau, onUNOGBIS;
  • Lebanon, and specifically the work of the International Independent Investigation Commission from the Chief Investigator Daniel Bellemare; and
  • the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovinaby High Representative and European Union Special Representative to the Secretary General for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Miroslav Lajčák. That briefing had originally been expected in November.
  • Miroslav Jenca, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and the Head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventative Diplomacy in Central Asia (UNRCCA) is expected to brief the Council on the work of the UNRCCA which was established in December last year.

Also possible is a briefing on Central African Republic before the renewal of BONUCA’s mandate expiring on 31 December.

A briefing by theby the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Lord’s Resistance Army-Affected Areas, Joaquim Chissano, on the peace process between the Ugandan government and the LRA and his future role as envoy (Chissano’s mandate expires on 31 December) is also possible.

Formal meetings to adopt resolutions can be expected on:

The DRC: to renew the mandates of the peace operation there, MONUC and the sanctions Group of Experts, as well as the sanctions regime, which all expire on 31 December;

  • Burundi: to renew the mandate of BINUB expiring on 31 December;
  • Cyprus: to renew the mandate of UNFICYP which expires on 15 December;
  • Lebanon: to extend the mandate of UNIIIC, due to expire on 31 December;
  • Liberia sanctions and the sanctions’ Panel of Experts, which expire on 19 and 20 December, respectively;
  • Iraq: to extend the arrangements relating to the Development Fund for Iraq and its independent auditor, the International Advisory and Monitoring Board, including immunity provisions relating to the DFI which are due to expire on 31 December. The mandate of Multinational Forces in Iraq also expires on 31 December but will not be renewed unless the bilateral agreement on status of forces between the US and Iraq is not finalised; and
  • Somalia: to renew resolution 1816 authorising measures to combat piracy due to expire on 2 December, and the mandate of the sanctions Monitoring Group which expires on 20 December.

Two Arria formula meetings are expected in December. The first, which South Africa will be hosting is on responsibility to protect, scheduled for 1 December.

An Arria meeting on Chad is also likely early in the month. This is in conjunction with Council’s on-going discussions of the proposed UN military component to follow on the EU operation in Eastern Chad and Central African Republic. A decision on the military component, which was expected by 15 December, is likely to be delayed.

Full forecast

 

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