Somalia

  • March 2007

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    Council members, encouraged in February by what they saw as a window of opportunity in Somalia, will be looking anxiously at developments in the country, particularly the slow progress with the deployment of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The findings of the UN assessment mission will also be a focus. 

  • February 2007

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari is expected to brief the Council in early February. The Council is also expected to examine the request from the African Union (AU) for the UN to take over from AU peacekeepers in Somalia in six months.

  • January 2007

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Secretary-General's report under resolution 1725 is due on 6 January. It will be the first on a major crisis situation by the new Secretary-General and it will be an interesting test of his approach, particularly since the Council in December rejected the advice of his predecessor and his special representative and went ahead with approval for an Intergovernmental Authority on Development military mission in Somalia in resolution 1725.

  • December 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Council seems likely to continue to be divided about the merits of a regional military mission (IGASOM) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) being deployed in Somalia to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). At press time it seemed possible that a US draft resolution giving IGASOM a mandate to support the TFG could be circulated soon.

  • November 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia, François Lonseny Fall, is expected to brief the Security Council in November. The wider regional implications of involvement in Somalia by Ethiopia and Eritrea are likely to play an increasing role. A presidential statement directed at Ethiopia and Eritrea is an option.

  • October 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Council is likely to continue to discuss how best to support the ongoing talks between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). In that context, continuing discussions are likely on modifications to the arms embargo (including equipment for training Somali security forces and criteria for targeted sanctions).

  • September 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Council may moderate the tilt which it made in early August in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the absence of an established peace process involving consent from all parties, it seems unlikely at this stage that the Council will support the proposed African Union/Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission.

  • August 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    No Council decisions on Somalia are scheduled this month. However, given the very unstable situation on the ground, Somalia is likely to feature in some way on the Council programme of work.

  • July 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    In the light of recent developments in Somalia it seems increasingly unclear whether or when the Council might consider the request of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for exemption from the arms embargo for its proposed peace support mission in Somalia (IGASOM).

  • May 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Somalia Sanctions Committee is due to receive the final report of the Monitoring Group on the arms embargo, but no new action on sanctions is expected. The current mandate of the Monitoring Group expires 12 May. The Council is expected to renew the Group's mandate for another six months.

  • February 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    In February, the Council will receive the regular report of the Secretary-General on Somalia. The Sanctions Committee will receive the midterm briefing of the Monitoring Group.

  • January 2006

    Somalia

    Monthly Forecast

    The Council will receive the interim report of the Monitoring Group on the arms embargo currently in force in Somalia. At this stage, however, we do not expect any strengthening of the sanctions regime or immediate action against violators.