Somalia
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The Secretary-General’s report on Somalia, requested in resolution 1814, is due in July. It is expected to include an update on:the Secretary-General’s strategy for Somalia, including relocation of the UN Political Office (UNPOS) to Somalia;efforts to establish a humanitarian coordination mechanism; andprogress with establishing a human rights capacity within UNPOS.
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Pressure on the Council to do something on Somalia is likely to continue in April. At press time, an Arria-style meeting with NGOs to discuss Somalia was scheduled for 31 March under UK chairmanship.
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The Council is awaiting a report from the Secretary-General on results of the Secretariat’s strategic assessment and fact-finding mission to Somalia. The results are expected to include options for future UN involvement, such as relocating the UN Political Office for Somalia to Mogadishu; progress with contingency planning for a UN peacekeeping mission; and proposals for UN assistance to the AU Mission in Somalia.
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The Council is expected to renew authorisation for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which expires on 20 February. An open debate is also expected in mid-January. The Council is also due to receive a report from the Secretary-General on contingency planning for UN peacekeeping in Somalia, as well as options for strengthening AMISOM. It is unclear whether the report will be ready before the AMISOM reauthorisation.
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Somalia will be on the minds of Council members in January due to the acute crisis there and the expiry of the AU mandate for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) on 17 January. However, it remains unclear whether the Council will in January renew the authorisation for AMISOM.
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The Council is expected to continue to follow security and political developments in Somalia closely. An expert-level meeting with the Secretariat on planning for a future UN political, humanitarian and peacekeeping strategy and assistance to the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is scheduled for 30 November.
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The Council is expected to consider in informal consultations the Secretary-General's report on Somalia, which now seems likely to be available by the end of October. Despite the worsening situation in Somalia, it seems unlikely that any new concrete proposals on political reconciliation, sanctions or support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will emerge. AMISOM's Council authorisation expires on 20 February.
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In October, consultations are likely and expected to review the forthcoming Secretary-General's report, which is anticipated to cover: status of the political process; steps for an increased UN role in that regard, including the recent appointment of the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, with reinforced status; the humanitarian and security situation; recommendations on UN support for AMISOM; and an update on contingency planning for a UN mission in Somalia.
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It is unclear whether in August the Council will take up the full scope of issues relating to Somalia, especially in light of the detailed consideration given to it in resolution 1766 on 23 July which addressed the political reconciliation process, the arms embargo and the renewal of the sanctions Monitoring Group.
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It seems unlikely in July that the Council will seriously consider a future UN peacekeeping role in Somalia. The security situation continues to be very dangerous and progress with political reconciliation is hesitant. It is unclear whether members will want to explore other options for UN involvement in Somalia, particularly in the political reconciliation process.
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In late June the Secretary-General is expected to report on progress with Somalia's national reconciliation process, including a broad ceasefire. The reconciliation congress is currently scheduled for mid-June, but it is unclear whether it will be held. The report will also discuss contingency planning for a possible UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia, but Council action on that seems unlikely at this stage.
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At press time, Council members were negotiating a possible presidential statement expressing grave concern about the humanitarian situation and calling for support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). It was unclear if or when the statement will be adopted.
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The Council expects the report of the Secretary-General on Somalia, due by 20 April. It is likely to include:developments on an all-inclusive political process and reconciliation; and recommendations on the UN's further engagement in Somalia, stabilisation and reconstruction and possibly the feasibility of transition from the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to a UN operation.
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Council members, encouraged in February by what they saw as a window of opportunity in Somalia, will be looking anxiously at developments in the country, particularly the slow progress with the deployment of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The findings of the UN assessment mission will also be a focus.
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The Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari is expected to brief the Council in early February. The Council is also expected to examine the request from the African Union (AU) for the UN to take over from AU peacekeepers in Somalia in six months.
