Somalia
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In March, the Council will receive a report from the Secretary-General. Also in March, the General Assembly is expected to take up the funding of the UN logistical-support package to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) endorsed by the Council on 16 January by resolution 1863.
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The Council expects to receive an initial report from the Secretary-General by 30 January on measures to strengthen the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) as requested in resolution 1863 of 16 January. In February the Council is likely to receive a more comprehensive report and briefing.
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In December the Council will receive a report from the Monitoring Group tasked with investigating violations of the arms embargo established by resolution 733. Its mandate expires on 20 December and is likely to be renewed. The Council is also likely to renew the provision in resolution 1816 authorising states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to combat piracy that expires on 2 December. Addressing the rapidly deteriorating situation inside Somalia is a possibility.
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The Council is expecting a consolidated report from the Secretary-General, (due on 4 November, but likely to be delayed) which should include four elements: the regular quarterly update on developments in Somalia; a response to the Council’s request in its presidential statement of 4 September that the Secretary-General elaborate contingency plans for a feasible multinational force; the requested update on the implementation of the Djibouti Agreement between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS); and a report on the implementation of resolution 1816 of 2 June 2008 permitting states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to counter piracy.
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The Council is expecting several reports on Somalia: a regular report is due in mid-October; a plan for a “feasible international stabilisation force” and a “concept of operations” for a follow on UN peacekeeping operation have been requested by the Council; and a report on implementation of resolution 1816 of 2 June (which permits states to enter Somalia’s territorial waters to counter piracy).
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This report examines in depth the longest running Security Council sanctions measure still in existence (16 years). We have chosen this case because the crisis in Somalia continues to be as serious as it has ever been since 1992. It remains on the Council’s work programme and the humanitarian situation has dramatically worsened in recent months. Somalia is quite possibly the least successful example of Council-imposed sanctions. Historically, all sanctions regimes have presented challenges when it comes to implementation. But the arms embargo imposed on Somalia in 1992 has faced more difficulties than most. This report examines these difficulties. It suggests that some of the problem lay in the situation on the ground. There was no governmental entity with control over Somali territory. There was no customs or border control. But there were also problems the Council could have addressed, including weaknesses in design, unreasonable expectations of reliance on authorities in neighbouring countries to enforce the regime and lack of will to pursue diligently measures to enforce decisions or to adapt when the initial sanctions design proved wholly inadequate.
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Somalia could be back in the Council again in September. The Sanctions Committee is expected to provide a midterm briefing, and at press time, a new sanctions resolution appeared to be under discussion. The goal would be to impose targeted measures against peace spoilers and violators of the arms embargo.
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The Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing its authorisation for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which expires on 20 August.
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The Secretary-General’s report on Somalia, requested in resolution 1814, is due in July. It is expected to include an update on:the Secretary-General’s strategy for Somalia, including relocation of the UN Political Office (UNPOS) to Somalia;efforts to establish a humanitarian coordination mechanism; andprogress with establishing a human rights capacity within UNPOS.
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Pressure on the Council to do something on Somalia is likely to continue in April. At press time, an Arria-style meeting with NGOs to discuss Somalia was scheduled for 31 March under UK chairmanship.
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The Council is awaiting a report from the Secretary-General on results of the Secretariat’s strategic assessment and fact-finding mission to Somalia. The results are expected to include options for future UN involvement, such as relocating the UN Political Office for Somalia to Mogadishu; progress with contingency planning for a UN peacekeeping mission; and proposals for UN assistance to the AU Mission in Somalia.
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The Council is expected to renew authorisation for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which expires on 20 February. An open debate is also expected in mid-January. The Council is also due to receive a report from the Secretary-General on contingency planning for UN peacekeeping in Somalia, as well as options for strengthening AMISOM. It is unclear whether the report will be ready before the AMISOM reauthorisation.
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Somalia will be on the minds of Council members in January due to the acute crisis there and the expiry of the AU mandate for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) on 17 January. However, it remains unclear whether the Council will in January renew the authorisation for AMISOM.
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The Council is expected to continue to follow security and political developments in Somalia closely. An expert-level meeting with the Secretariat on planning for a future UN political, humanitarian and peacekeeping strategy and assistance to the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is scheduled for 30 November.
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The Council is expected to consider in informal consultations the Secretary-General's report on Somalia, which now seems likely to be available by the end of October. Despite the worsening situation in Somalia, it seems unlikely that any new concrete proposals on political reconciliation, sanctions or support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will emerge. AMISOM's Council authorisation expires on 20 February.
