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ASIA

North Korea

Expected Council Action
The Chairman of the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic Republic of North Korea, Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, will brief the Council in January. Although resolution 1718, adopted in October 2006 after North Korea’s nuclear test, mandated a report every ninety days, because of the positive developments in 2007 the Sanctions Committee seems unlikely to have much to report.

Formal Council action is not expected. Nonetheless, there may be some interest in a press statement marking progress toward denuclearisation.

Key Recent Developments
Progress seems to be continuing in implementation of the February six-party agreement (between China, Japan, Russia, the US, North Korea and South Korea) through which North Korea agreed to terminate its nuclear programme in return for fuel and economic aid.

North Korea shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor in July, with some oversight from the IAEA, in line with the first phase of the February agreement and received 50,000 tons of fuel oil. Under phase two, an additional 950,000 tons of fuel or equivalent assistance have been promised in exchange for North Korea disabling and declaring its entire nuclear programme.

At time of writing, other encouraging developments were also under way. In October, after a six-party plenary in Beijing, North Korea agreed to promote full disclosure of its nuclear programme by 31 December. A US-led team of specialists began disabling the Yongbyon facilities in November, and there were hopes of completion by year’s end.

In early December, President George W. Bush sent a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il encouraging denuclearisation. On 12 December, North Korea responded through diplomatic channels signalling willingness to continue implementation of the six-party agreement.

Some concerns remain on disclosure by North Korea of all aspects of its nuclear programme. Media reports suggest possible uranium enrichment and support for alleged Syrian nuclear activities. At press time, it was unclear whether North Korea would be able to complete its disclosure document by the end of the year.

Options
The Council has the following options:

• listen to the briefing and take no action;
• adopt a press statement, perhaps encouraging six-party progress; and
• request recommendations from the Committee on future options for its work.

Key Issue
The key issue is whether the Council wants to be proactive in supporting the recent momentum. A related issue is whether to signal some willingness to revise the mandate of the Sanctions Committee encouraging denuclearisation steps while remaining alert to any obstacles.

Council Dynamics
There is broad agreement that intensifying sanctions is unnecessary at this stage.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) expressed grave concern over the nuclear test by North Korea, imposed sanctions and set up the Sanctions Committee. S/RES/1695 (15 July 2006) condemned North Korea’s launch of ballistic missiles.

Selected Presidential Statement

S/PRST/2006/41 (6 October 2006) was the statement expressing concern over North Korea’s declaration that it would conduct a nuclear test.

Selected Letter

S/2006/481 (4 July 2006) was the letter from Japan requesting a meeting of the Security Council after North Korea launched a ballistic missile.

Other

Letters submitted from UN member states on implementing resolution 1718. IAEA report of 17 August 2007 (GOV/2007/45-GC(51)/19) verifying the shut-down of the Yongbyon reactor. Briefing to the Security Council by the Chair of the Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Marcello Spatafora, 10 July 2007.

Full forecast

 

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