January 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 21 December 2007
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MIDDLE EAST

Iran

Expected Council Action
At press time, efforts to prepare a third resolution on sanctions against Iran were continuing. But the recent US intelligence assessment that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 seems to have impacted the political dynamics and, probably, the pace of negotiations. It is unclear when a draft resolution might be presented to the Council by the P5 plus Germany. 

Key Recent Developments
EU envoy Javier Solana and the Iranian nuclear negotiator Said Jalili met on 30 November in London to discuss renewed negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. Solana later described the talks as “disappointing”. E3+3 political directors met on 1 December and agreed that, since there was no new opening from Iran, work on elements of a new resolution should start.

On 3 December, a new US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) was published indicating that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003.

IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei said the NIE report could help defuse the crisis as it provided a window of opportunity for Iran to prove that its nuclear programme was peaceful, and he urged the parties to enter into negotiations as soon as possible.

US President George W. Bush said that the report confirmed his sense that Iran remained a danger because it confirmed that there had been a weapons programme and it could be restarted anytime. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad portrayed the report’s conclusions as a “victory” for Iran. On 11 December, he said there should be dialogue with the US. Former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani also suggested that the E3+3 should hold face-to-face talks with Iran.

Israel suggested that, in its assessment, Iran’s nuclear weapons programme had resumed in 2005.

In a statement on 14 December, the EU renewed support for additional UN sanctions and additional unilateral measures as well.

On 13 December, Russia and Iran signed an agreement to complete the Bushehr nuclear plant project. Delivery of fuel, which had been delayed several times, began in December. The US said this confirmed that Iran had no need to continue its enrichment programme, since fuel was available.

On 18 December, the Chairman of the 1737 Sanctions Committee reported to the Council on the Committee’s activities covering the period 20 September to 18 December and said that 87 member states had reported to the Committee on implementation of resolution resolution 1737, and 71 on implementation of resolution 1747.

Options
If there is agreement among the P5, there are several options to incrementally increase pressure on Iran (see our December 2007 Forecast for details).

A separate but perhaps parallel option might be for the Council to call for renewed negotiations, following a “dual track” approach.

A less likely option—but one which might appeal to elected members—would be to defer demands to stop uranium enrichment for a defined period and instead focus on negotiations involving the key actors to reach a deal under which Iran would sign the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty allowing the IAEA to verify that enrichment is not for military purposes, in return for international assistance in launching industrial scale nuclear activity.

Key Issues
The main upcoming issue in the Council seems likely to be the impact of the NIE report on the wider Council membership. Concerns about the civilian nature of Iran’s nuclear programme were triggered by the IAEA discovery in 2003 of concealed nuclear activities, and assessments that Iran probably had a nuclear weapons programme. In the current circumstances, however, a key issue may be whether the necessary level of confidence could best be achieved by Iran’s implementing the work-plan clarifying its past activities and accepting the optional protocol rather than by further sanctions. For the US (and the Europeans) the issue is that this is insufficient because the current nuclear programme cannot be verified by the IAEA, and meanwhile, uranium enrichment continues in violation of binding Council decisions.

The other key issue is whether to emphasise the possibility of a window of opportunity for a strengthened diplomatic initiative, following ElBaradei’s assessment that there seems now to be more room for negotiations.

Council Dynamics
France and the UK said that the NIE report did not affect their intention to pursue additional sanctions. They believe, like the US, that contrary to expectations, the NIE report actually reinforces the concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme, because it reveals that until 2003 Iran was working towards nuclear weapons in breach of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

China and Russia seem to believe there is now less urgency about additional sanctions. While there may still be consensus on the need for a third resolution, divisions seem to remain on the appropriate incremental increase and the need for a parallel negotiating track.

On 13 December, China’s ambassador to the UN, Wang Guangya, said China preferred a “dual track” approach—a revitalised diplomatic initiative along with a new sanctions resolution. This seems to be a position shared by others, including some in the EU.

The position of elected members remains to be seen and may be affected by the extent to which P5 members find ways to involve them in the ongoing discussions. Some consider that additional sanctions are unnecessary at this time. Others fear that new sanctions would have a negative impact on the work-plan. Several (including Indonesia and South Africa) would prefer an emphasis on diplomacy at this point.

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UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1747 (24 March 2007) imposed additional measures against Iran and reinforced existing ones.
  • S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) imposed measures against Iran under Chapter VII, article 41, of the UN Charter and expressed its intention to adopt further measures under article 41 in case of Iranian non-compliance.
  • S/RES/1696 (31 July 2006) demanded that Iran suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities and expressed its intention to adopt measures under article 41 in case of Iranian non-compliance.

Latest IAEA Board Resolution

  • GOV/2006/14 (4 February 2006) underlined the necessary steps that Iran should take to reestablish confidence in the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme and reported the issue to the Security Council.

Latest IAEA Report

Understandings of Iran and the IAEA

Latest Letter

  • S/2007/692 (30 November 2007) was a letter by Iran on its cooperation with the IAEA.

Useful Additional Sources

Full forecast

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