January 2008 Monthly Forecast

• Western Sahara

  The Council will discuss the Secretary-General’s report on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara in April and developments at the most recent talks between Morocco and the Frente Polisario. Peter van Walsum, the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, is expected to brief the Council and provide an assessment of the negotiations and perhaps recommendations. Read more

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), which expires on 31 January. The next regular report of the Secretary-General on UNMEE is due in January. Read more

• Nepal

  The Council is expected to extend the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) before it expires on 23 January. Ian Martin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Nepal, will brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest UNMIN report. Read more

• Overview

  In January Libya will have the presidency of the Council. For a newly elected Council member, assuming the presidency in its first month is a huge burden. However, Libya seems to have made a big effort to prepare and they... Read more

• Iraq

  The Security Council is expecting a briefing on Iraq, perhaps from the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura. The next report on the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) is due by 15 January. The US is also expected to brief the Council on the activities of the Multinational Force in Iraq (MNF-I). Read more

• Kosovo

  In January, the Secretary-General's Special Representative, Joachim Rucker will brief the Council on the Secretary-General's latest report on the UN Mission in Kosovo. Against the background of a possible announcement by Kosovo of plans to declare independence, the UNMIK report is expected to reopen December’s difficult discussions in the Council. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  The Council is expected to follow very closely the situation in Darfur, in particular issues surrounding the peace process and the deployment of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). (The mission formally takes over peacekeeping responsibilities in Darfur on 31 December.) The Secretary-General’s quarterly report on Darfur is expected by the end of the year. Read more

• Somalia

  Somalia will be on the minds of Council members in January due to the acute crisis there and the expiry of the AU mandate for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) on 17 January. However, it remains unclear whether the Council will in January renew the authorisation for AMISOM. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In September, Tom Koenigs, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Afghanistan announced that he would step down from his post on 31 December 2007. At press time, the Secretary-General was expected to choose Koenig’s successor and inform the Council by the end of the year. Read more

• North Korea

  The Chairman of the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic Republic of North Korea, Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, will brief the Council in January. Although resolution 1718, adopted in October 2006 after North Korea’s nuclear test, mandated a report every ninety days, because of the positive developments in 2007 the Sanctions Committee seems unlikely to have much to report. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  The Security Council Sanctions Committee on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to receive the report of its Group of Experts. The Committee is expected to report in February.   Read more

• Georgia

  In January, the Council is expected to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the situation in Abkhazia and be briefed by his Special Representative Jean Arnault. Although no decision is required at this stage, members are likely to be focusing on the heightened tension in the region and the implications for UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG). Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending before the Council include: A letter from the Council president to the Secretary-General of 29 November 2006 (S/2006/928) requested an updated index to Council notes and statements on working methods. This index had not been published at... Read more

• Chad/CAR

  Council members are expected to follow closely in January the situation in Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) as well as progress with the deployment of the EU protection force and the UN Mission in the region (MINURCAT). The report of the Secretary-General was published on 17 December. Read more

• Iran

  At press time, efforts to prepare a third resolution on sanctions against Iran were continuing. But the recent US intelligence assessment that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 seems to have impacted the political dynamics and, probably, the pace of negotiations. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) which expires on 15 January 2008. The Council’s deliberations are expected to be guided by a new report of the Secretary-General on UNOCI (due in early January) as well as input from an upcoming meeting of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) scheduled for late January. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for January 2008. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in December 2007. Read more