• Print
• Share

EUROPE

Kosovo

Expected Council Action
In January, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Joachim Rucker will brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Against the background of a possible announcement by Kosovo of plans to declare independence, the UNMIK report is expected to reopen December’s difficult discussions in the Council.

Informal consultations are likely to continue as the situation develops. Further initiatives by Russia are possible.

Recent Developments
December saw renewed discussions in the Council and the EU on the future of Kosovo as the 10 December deadline for the end of negotiations between the Troika (EU, Russia and the US) and the two parties passed.

The Troika submitted its report to the Secretary-General on 7 December. Between 10 August and 3 December it met the two parties ten times. The report said that, while there had been substantive discussions between Belgrade and Pristina, neither party was “willing to cede its position on the fundamental question of sovereignty over Kosovo”. (Pristina insisted on full independence, and Belgrade offered only wide autonomy.) The Troika, nevertheless, concluded that the process had been useful as the two parties had engaged in high-level direct dialogue and had pledged to refrain from provocative actions that could jeopardise security.

The day the Troika submitted its report to the Secretary-General, Russia circulated to Council colleagues draft elements for a possible presidential statement. The draft contained many points but a central element was a proposed call on both parties to continue to seek a negotiated solution and for the Contact Group to support a continued negotiating process. The Council consultations on 2 December revealed fundamental differences on this point.

Serbia publicly said that a unilateral declaration of independence would be a violation of international law and that it would refer any such declaration to the International Court of Justice. Russia made it clear that it would regard a unilateral declaration of independence as a violation of resolution 1244 which would open serious risks to international peace and security and that Russia would ask the Council to annul it.

EU leaders met on 14 December and agreed that negotiations had been exhausted. They agreed to support a European Security and Defence Policy mission to Kosovo. The mission is likely to be authorised at the EU foreign ministers meeting on 28 January 2008. They also agreed to offer Serbia a substantial incentive—a fast-track route for joining the EU once pre-conditions such as arresting war criminals were met.

On 19 December the Council met in a closed formal session to discuss the Troika’s report. This was preceded by lengthy consultations on the format. (The US and Europeans wanted the Kosovo representative to be able speak in an open debate but Russia was opposed.) Ultimately it was agreed to hold a private meeting with the Serbian representative attending under rule 37 of the Provisional Rules of Procedure of the Security Council (this provides for a member to participate in discussions where its interests are affected) and the Kosovo representative under rule 39 (this allows the Council to invite someone to provide it with information). Following the session, the US and EU members of the Council read a joint statement which concluded that the potential for a negotiated solution had been exhausted. Russia however continued to maintain that there was still room for negotiation. Russia also circulated an updated version of its presidential statement which included a new element—a road-map of the negotiating efforts.

NATO agreed on 7 December to keep its force in Kosovo (KFOR) at current levels and to provide extra troops to deter any potential violence.

On 12 December, Serbia announced that it would hold presidential elections on 20 January and 8 February. Some observers believe that Kosovo may hold off any moves towards independence until after the elections.

There are reports of a plan for many European countries to recognise Kosovo in a coordinated sequence followed by a number of Muslim nations.

Options
The Council has the following options:

• wait for developments before taking any steps;
• review the implications for resolution 1244 and UNMIK in the light of developments including security issues (if any);
• start discussions on a presidential statement based on areas of common agreement so as to show support for UNMIK and the efforts made by the Troika;
• agree to call for further negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia (while unlikely, it is an option that Russia is likely to press for); and
• agree on a resolution to resolution 1244 (this would be difficult given the lack of consensus on this issue but some EU countries may push for a Council resolution).

Key Issues
Several questions surround a possible declaration of independence.

• Is this consistent with resolution 1244 and how should the Council respond?
• If the EU chooses to take on some or all of UNMIK’s civilian and police role can this be done using resolution 1244 as a basis?
• What will be the effect of independence on minorities in Kosovo and is there a risk of further fragmentation? Should the Council do something in January to build trust and confidence in these communities?
• Will there be unrest after a declaration of independence? Related issues are whether NATO could contain any crisis and whether Bosnia and Herzegovina might be affected. If the situation becomes unstable, how will a united Council position to maintain regional peace and stability be forged?

Council and Wider Dynamics
Fundamental differences continue to divide the Council. Russia wants negotiations to continue while the US and most European members believe there is no point in further talks because there is no credible basis for moving forward.

Russia, in contrast to its position last June/July now wants the Council to take decisions on the status issue whereas the US and the Europeans now prefer to let events in the region drive the outcome rather than the Council.

While preferring to remain on the side-lines and for the European members and the US to work out their differences with Russia, non-European elected members have voiced concern about respecting international law. The proposal to use rule 39 for the Kosovo representative to speak on 19 December also sparked their concern. Russia made it clear that if this occurred they might use it as a precedent. However, China, Indonesia and South Africa stressed that such matter should be decided on a case-by-case basis. It seems that some members are also open to the idea of negotiations continuing for a period.

Among the new Council members Croatia is expected to take a lively interest in this issue. The other four new members are likely to play a low-key role in January.

In dealing with this issue the Council has been tested in its ability to produce proactive solutions to substantive and procedural matters. The difficulty in finding common ground seems likely to continue to test the Council’s dynamics.

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

• Print
• Share

• Share or print this post