January 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 21 December 2007
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AFRICA

Sudan/Darfur

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to follow very closely the situation in Darfur, in particular issues surrounding the peace process and the deployment of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). (The mission formally takes over peacekeeping responsibilities in Darfur on 31 December.) The Secretary-General’s quarterly report on Darfur is expected by the end of the year.

Key Recent Developments
The humanitarian and security situation in Darfur remains very serious. Under Secretary-General John Holmes travelled to Sudan in late November. He expressed concern about the continuing displacement of civilians and stressed that improved security was needed before displaced persons can return. (It seems that the government supports immediate returns.) At a briefing for Council members on 6 December, Holmes reported continuing lack of humanitarian access, violence against civilians and lack of observance of humanitarian principles by all parties.

The Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, briefed the Council on 5 December. He noted that Khartoum had not complied with its obligations under resolution 1593, in which the Council referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC. Moreno-Ocampo further noted that Sudan had not taken steps to begin domestic prosecutions against those indicted by the ICC, having most recently nominated one of the indictees to a national monitoring group in charge of overseeing UNAMID’s deployment. He warned of a “calculated, organised campaign by Sudanese officials to attack individuals and further destroy the entire community.”

The ICC Prosecutor urged the Council to be consistent with its decisions and send a strong and unanimous message to Sudan on resolution 1593 and the arrest warrants, noting that “the same consistency is needed throughout” the UN. He also reported on upcoming indictments related to attacks against civilians, humanitarian personnel and the AU Mission in the Sudan (AMIS), as well as government officials’ collusion to protect indictees.

European members of the Council circulated a draft presidential statement recalling resolution 1593, urging Sudan to cooperate with the ICC and expressing deep concern over Khartoum’s failure to arrest and surrender indictees. However, it appears that clear agreement was proving difficult to reach on a written text. The president of the Council therefore spoke to the media on 7 December outlining the essence of the elements on which there was substantial agreement in the Council.

On 12 December, Ambassador Johan Verbeke of Belgium submitted a letter to the Council President on behalf of EU members of the Security Council. The letter contained the Conclusions of the Council of Europe on Sudan/Chad, which reiterated the urging of European members for Sudan to cooperate with the ICC and drew “attention to the lack of cooperation by the Government of the Sudan concerning the deployment of an effective force” in Darfur.

Since November, the UN-AU mediation team has been consulting with key stakeholders on how best to address rebel fragmentation and resume the talks. At press time, a rebel meeting to reach a common position similar to the one held in Arusha in August 2007, appeared possible.

In early December, UN Envoy Jan Eliasson underscored that UNAMID’s deployment was a necessary measure to monitor a future cessation of hostilities.

At press time, concern about Sudan’s lack of cooperation with UNAMID’s deployment and the absence of pledges for mobility assets (in particular helicopters) persisted. It seems that potential contributors of such assets have either declined to pledge, expressed concern with command and control arrangements or indicated lack of suitable assets.

On 6 December, the Secretary-General sent a letter to Council members that he would send a high-level team to discuss these issues at the EU-Africa summit in Lisbon on 8-9 December. He urged Council members to exercise their influence and noted that “with only three weeks left” before the transfer from AMIS to UNAMID, “the situation has become acute.”

At a briefing on 13 December, the Secretariat noted some positive developments following the Lisbon meeting, including Sudan’s acceptance of the original draft status-of-forces agreement and advanced negotiations on land use and night flights. It appears that Sudan will respond on troop composition soon.

Related Developments in the Human Rights Council

The Group of Experts on Darfur presented its final report on 11 December. It noted that Khartoum had only partially implemented the Group’s recommendations, and with limited success. The report further noted that more than 267,000 persons had been displaced in 2007 alone, and that all parties to the conflict were responsible for indiscriminate attacks resulting in civilian casualties. The Group recommended continuing the review of implementing its recommendations, either by renewing its mandate, which expired on 15 December, or through the Special Rapporteur on Sudan (whose continuation has been opposed by some Human Rights Council members). On 14 December, the mandate of the rapporteur was extended, but not the mandate of the Group of Experts.

Options

Options include:

  • continuing to leave deployment issues to the Secretariat, or actively managing these issues, perhaps including a warning to Sudan and initiating discussions with potential contributors of mobility assets;
  • holding further consultations with the mediation team;
  • signalling and/or actively discussing a possible spectrum of sanctions; and
  • pressing for a ceasefire.

Key Issues

The key issue for the Council is ensuring quick progress on the peacekeeping track, including:

  • Khartoum’s reluctance regarding UNAMID;
  • associated problems including troop composition and robustness, permission for night flights and land use;
  • addressing the absence of mobility-asset contributions;
  • managing risks that lack of robustness may create for UNAMID, mindful of dangerous precedents elsewhere;
  • funding decisions from the General Assembly; and
  • UNAMID’s unparalleled management, infrastructure, logistical, security and environmental challenges.

A parallel issue is progress with political reconciliation, including:

  • achieving a peace agreement quickly with substantive rebel participation and unity, and balancing this with the needs of civil society, the government (given north-south tensions) and Arab communities;
  • other negotiation modalities, notably on substance (including land and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement);
  • reaching a ceasefire; and
  • deterring attempts to influence the talks through force or obstruction.

A major issue for the Council is whether and when to resort to sanctions and who to target if progress on the tracks above prove elusive.

A key emerging issue is how best to address justice and accountability, particularly Sudan’s lack of compliance with resolution 1593 and wider issues of political reconciliation and peacekeeping.

Council Dynamics
Members seem deeply concerned with the challenges facing UNAMID from Sudan’s cooperation, the absence of mobility assets and the potential for delays in deployment as the 31 December deadline approaches.

Some members—including the US, UK and France—seem particularly concerned with risks over the mission’s ability to carry out its mandate effectively. They appear convinced that Sudan’s perceived pattern of obstruction to UNAMID will persist and will require continuous pressure.

Members such as China, Russia and Indonesia are likely to continue to prefer dialogue with Khartoum. However, Sudan’s continuing ambiguity may make this difficult.

Discussions following the ICC prosecutor’s briefing underscored existing divisions among members on justice and accountability issues. Most expressed support for the ICC and the adoption of a Council statement on Sudan’s obligations. Some added the need to balance investigations by also focusing on crimes committed by rebels. Russia and Indonesia emphasised the need for dialogue with Khartoum, and Indonesia and Qatar emphasised the need to safeguard domestic jurisdiction. China in particular appeared to favour a larger focus on the political and peacekeeping tracks, leaving justice issues until the security situation improves.

The majority supported the European draft statement mentioned above, particularly after the removal of the expression of concern with Khartoum’s failure to arrest and surrender indictees. Some—China in particular—seem to have initially opposed the draft, noting that it may be unhelpful for the peace process, and later supported issuing it as a press statement. Subsequent consultations revealed some uncertainty as to the overall level of agreement. The Council’s president noted to the press that members had decided not to issue a statement but emphasised the strength of expressions of members’ support. The draft was subsequently dropped, but clearly the issue remains alive.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

Latest Secretary-General’s UNAMID Report

Other

  • S/2007/730 (12 December 2007) was the Belgium letter on behalf of Security Council members in the EU, which called on the Government of Sudan to cooperate with the ICC.
  • Comments by the president of the Security Council on the ICC statement (7 December 2007) available at http://www.un.org/webcast/sc.html
  • S/PV.5789 (5 December 2007) was the ICC prosecutor’s recent briefing.
  • A/HRC/6/19 (28 November 2007) was the recent human rights report on Darfur.
  • A/62/540 (8 November 2007) was a report on UNAMID funding by the UN Advisory Committee on Administrative and Budgetary Questions.
  • S/2007/584 (2 October 2007) was the latest Panel of Experts’ report.

Other Relevant Facts

UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur

Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo)

UN and AU Special Envoys

UN: Jan Eliasson (Sweden)

AU: Salim A. Salim (Tanzania)

UNAMID: Size

Maximum authorised strength: up to 19,555 military, 3,772 police and 19 formed police units

UNAMID: Duration

31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2008

AMIS: Size and Composition

  • Total authorised strength: about 10,000 military and 1,500 police
  • Strength as of 23 May 2007: 6,143 military and 1,360 police
  • Key troop contributors: Nigeria, Rwanda and Senegal

AMIS: Duration

25 May 2004 to present; mandate expires 31 December 2007

Full forecast

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