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Iraq

Expected Council Action
The Security Council is expecting a briefing on Iraq, perhaps from the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura. The next report on the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) is due by 15 January. The US is also expected to brief the Council on the activities of the Multinational Force in Iraq (MNF-I).

No Council action other than perhaps a press statement is expected. Discussions are likely to focus on progress by the UN in implementing its expanded mandate in Iraq which was approved on 10 August 2007 in resolution 1770. In particular, Council members will be interested in the UN role in facilitating political dialogue and national reconciliation in the region, and on humanitarian assistance.

Key Recent Developments
On 18 December, the Council renewed the MNF-I mandate for one year, following a request by the Iraqi government and by the US (see our Update Report of 10 December 2007 for more details). However, it seems that Iraqi parliamentarians again contested the legality of the government’s request for the MNF-I mandate renewal claiming that the parliament had not been consulted in advance, contrary to a law passed in May requiring prior consultation.

On 27 November, US Lieutenant General James Dubik said that by the end of the year Iraqi forces would not be ready to take control of as many provinces as the US military had hoped. It is unclear whether this may slow the pace of US troop withdrawals, which seem to be linked to improvements of Iraq’s security forces. (A significant development, though, was the transfer of security responsibility on 16 December from the UK forces to Iraqi authorities in Basra.) The new Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said in November that 550 of the 1,500 Australian troops in Iraq would be withdrawn by mid-2008.

It seems that there has been progress by the MNF-I in Iraq in improving security. Local ceasefires between former combatants and the Iraqi authorities and the MNF-I have been secured, most successfully in Anbar province, and the Sunni insurgency appears to be diminishing. But major terrorist attacks continue, and the security situation remains very fragile. Violence in Baghdad has decreased, and some refugees are beginning to return. Politically, it seems little has been achieved. Iraq is still divided, and the government still struggles to exert its influence.

De Mistura arrived in Baghdad on 12 November. He said he would ensure maximum UN engagement with Iraq’s government and people. He has been very active with international, regional and internal actors in exploring ways to implement UNAMI’s mandate of advising and assisting Iraqis to establish inclusive political dialogue and reconciliation.

The last expanded meeting of foreign ministers of Iraq’s neighbouring countries, aimed at promoting regional dialogue and reinforcing the government’s efforts at national reconciliation, took place in Istanbul on 2-3 November. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the recent decrease in casualties was an opportunity to transform military and political developments into a basis for broader national reconciliation. Three working groups launched in March have focused on energy supplies, Iraqi refugees and security-cooperation issues. An objective, he said, was establishing a mechanism to facilitate communication between neighbouring states while maintaining a coherent direction (this was agreed by the ministers). Recognising Turkey’s security concerns, he said it was unacceptable that Iraqi territory be used for cross-border attacks, referring to the ongoing crisis on the Turkey-Iraq border involving Kurdish guerrillas.

Humanitarian conditions in Iraq remain dire. However, the Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration estimates that around 46,000 refugees have returned, including 10,000 to Baghdad. But the Iraqi Red Crescent Society said on 5 November that the number of internally displaced Iraqis was 2.3 million, a 16 percent increase since August. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that there are more than 4.4 million refugees outside Iraq. A positive development in late November was the Iraqi cabinet’s decision to provide $25 million to support Iraqi refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

At press time, it seemed likely that the referendum on the future of Kirkuk province, focusing on the question of whether it should be incorporated into the Kurdistan Regional Government, would be postponed.

Options
An option for the Council is to adopt a press statement following the UNAMI and MNF-I briefings welcoming the positive trends, providing encouragement to both the Special Representative and UNHCR for the roles they are performing, and reminding all the main Iraqi actors of the importance of political reconciliation.
 

Key Issues
The main issue is the evolving relationship between the UN and Iraq as the Iraqi state slowly strengthens. The approach taken by Iraq to the renewal of the MNF-I mandate seems to confirm a growing determination by Iraq to end at least some of what it sees as visible symbols of occupation and to restore some appearances of independence and full sovereignty. The presence of the MNF-I clearly remains essential for Iraq. But one result of this determination to change the dynamic seems, ironically, to be Iraqi opposition to the UN authorising the MNF-I. Foreign forces remaining, but under bilateral agreements, seems to be a preferred outcome, and this is apparently also welcome to the US. Meanwhile, the UN is expanding its non-security functions, especially in humanitarian assistance and political reconciliation. An issue for the Council will be how to adjust its own approach to Iraq in light of these developments and how to support substantive dialogue between Iraqi actors.

At time of writing, it seems that funding will not be available for the UN to construct secure office facilities. Capacity for perimeter defence and close protection therefore assumes much higher importance. A further issue is the question of security for UN personnel. A contingent of the MNF-I has provided this security for the UN. If the mandate is not renewed in 2008, as is the wish of the Iraqi government, a question will arise whether to continue the link of the contingent to the MNF-I or whether to provide a discrete Council mandate for it. (The 11 December bombings in Algiers in which many UN staff members died have reinforced concerns on this issue.)

Another issue concerns obstacles to UNAMI’s delivery of humanitarian assistance, especially problems of coordination with implementing partners. Another challenge is responding to short term emergencies while sustaining a longer-term role aimed at strengthening infrastructure and services.

Council Dynamics
Dynamics in the Council are unlikely to be affected by the presence of new Council members. Broad support for the new UN role in Iraq is likely to continue with most members ready to display support for UN activity on regional stability, national reconciliation, protection of the Iraqi population and respect for human rights and humanitarian law, and the refugee crisis.
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Other Relevant Facts

Useful Additional Sources

• Shiite Politics in Iraq: The Role of the Supreme Council, International Crisis Group, Middle East Report No. 70, 15 November 2007
• Biddle: Security, Political Improvements Seen in Iraq in Recent Months, interview with Stephen Biddle, Council on Foreign Relations, 15 November 2007
• Rot Here or Die There: Bleak Choices for Iraqi Refugees in Lebanon, Human Rights Watch, December 2007
• Greg Bruno, Refugees Return but Concerns Linger, Council on Foreign Relations, 20 November 2007

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