January 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 21 December 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in the Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments in the Council on other issues in December included:

  • Guinea-Bissau: On 3 December,the Council agreed to the Secretary-General’s request (S/2007/700) to extend the mandate of UNOGBIS until 31 December 2008 (S/2007/701). In his request, the Secretary-General also expressed his intention “to explore the possibility of transforming…UNOGBIS into an integrated mission” upon successful completion of 2008 legislative elections. The Council referred Guinea-Bissau to the PBC and on 19 December it formally became the third country to be placed on the agenda of the PBC (S/2008/87).
  • Central African Republic: On 3 December, the Security-Council agreed (S/2007/703) to the Secretary-General’s request (S/2007/702) to extend the mandate of BONUCA until 31 December 2008. The Secretary-General’s latest report on BONUCA was submitted to the Council on 5 December (S/2007/697).
  • UNIIIC (Lebanon): On 5 December, Serge Brammertz, UNIIIC Commissioner, briefed the Council on the investigation of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and others (S/2007/684). Brammertz noted that “it is of paramount importance that the Commission continue to receive the administrative support it needs, particularly in the area of recruitment and staff retention.” He also noted that in the next reporting period UNIIIC “will continue to implement its action plans and…pursue all lines of inquiry” (S/PV.5790). In a letter from Prime Minister Fuad Siniora to the Secretary-General following the assassination of Lebanese armed forces General François el-Hajj, the Lebanese government requested UNIIIC’s help in investigating the attack (S/2007/735) and the Council agreed (S/2007/736). On 14 December, the Secretary-General informed the Council that the Special Tribunal Headquarters Agreement had been initialled by the UN and the Netherlands.
  • Burundi: On 6 December, Ambassador Johan Løvald of Norway and chair of the PBC’s country-specific configuration for Burundi, urged the Council to continue to monitor the situation in Burundi closely and stated that Burundi’s political stability is paramount for the peacebuilding process there to be successful (S/PV.5793). He noted that the Secretary-General’s recent report on BINUB had highlighted various peacebuilding priorities, including implementation of the Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement and security sector reform (S/2007/682). On 19 December, the Council extended the mandate of BINUB until 31 December 2008 (S/RES/1791).
  • Timor-Leste: On 6 December, Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo of South Africa briefed the Security Council on the mission to Timor-Leste from 24-30 November (S/PV.5791). On 13 December, the Council discussed the report (S/2007/711) on the mission to Timor-Leste in an open debate. Ambassador Sofia Borges of Timor-Leste requested that the Council extend the mandate of the UN Mission in Timor-Leste until 2012 in order to help the country strengthen democratic governance (S/PV.5801).
  • Northern Uganda/LRA: On 6 December, the Council approved (S/2007/720) the Secretary-General’s request (S/2007/719) to extend the mandate of the office of Joaquim Chissano, Special Envoy for the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) affected areas, until 31 December 2008.
  • Genocide Prevention Mandate: On 7 December, the Council took note (S/2007/722) of the Secretary-General’s letter regarding the appointment (S/2007/721) of Francis Deng as Special Representative for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities and Edward Luck as Special Advisor on Responsibility to Protect. The Council requested “further details.”
  • CTED: On 10 December, following a debate on threats to international peace and security resulting from terrorism (S/PV.5795), the Council adopted resolution 1787, which extended the mandate of the CTED through 31 March 2008.
  • ICTY/ICTR: During a Council debate on the Tribunals’ most recent assessment reports on 10 December (S/PV.5796), the outgoing ICTY Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte, who will be replaced by Serge Brammertz on 1 January, said that while the Tribunal had had many successes, she was disappointed that former Bosnian Serb army commander Ratko Mladic and former Bosnian Serb President Radovan Karadzic had not been arrested (S/2007/663). ICTR Prosecutor Hassan Jallow reported to the Council that while the ICTR hoped to complete its trial activities by the end of 2008, new arrests could prolong the Tribunal’s workload. Mr. Jallow also reported that the Tribunal had recently begun referring cases to national jurisdictions (S/2007/676).
  • Terrorism: On 11 December, the Council adopted a presidential statement condemning the terrorist attacks in Algiers near UN offices, which killed 37 people including 17 UN employees (S/PRST/2007/45). On 12 December, the Council adopted a presidential statement condemning the terrorist attack that claimed the life of Lebanese armed forces General François el-Hajj and killed and wounded others (S/PRST/2007/47).
  • Lebanon: The Council adopted a presidential statement on 11 December that expressed “its deep concern at the repeated postponements of the presidential election in Lebanon” (S/PRST/2007/46). On 12 December, the Council held consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (S/2007/641).
  • Iraq: On 11 December, Angela Kane, Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s report pursuant to resolution 1284 on the Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property issue (S/2007/712). Also on 11 December, the Secretary-General sent a letter to the Council with recommendations for addressing residual issues related to theoil-for-food programme. At press time, Council members had not formally responded to the Secretary-General’s letter. On 18 December, the Council extended the mandate of the Multinational Force in Iraq until 31 December 2008. A review will be held in June 2008 (S/RES/1790).
  • Golan Heights: On 14 December the Council adopted resolution 1788, which extended UNDOF until 30 June 2008 in keeping with the Secretary-General’s recommendation in his report (S/2007/698).
  • Cyprus: On 14 December the Council adopted resolution 1789, extending UNFICYP until 15 June 2008 as recommended by the Secretary-General in his 3 December report on the UN operation in Cyprus (S/2007/699).
  • Sierra Leone: The Council held consultations on UNIOSIL on 14 December. The chair of the PBC’s country-specific configuration, Frank Majoor, called the adoption of the Peacebuilding Cooperation Framework for Sierra Leone a “major milestone” (SC/9202). The Secretary-General recommended a nine-month renewal in his most recent report on UNIOSIL (S/2007/704). At press time, the Council was expected to renew the mandate of UNIOSIL on 21 December.
  • Liberia: On 14 December, the Council held consultations on the latest report of the Panel of Experts (S/2007/689). On 19 December, in resolution 1792 it extended the sanctions for a year and the mandate of the Panel of Experts for six months.
  • Subsidiary Bodies: On17 December, departing members—Congo, Ghana, Peru, Qatar and Slovakia—briefed the Council on the work of the subsidiary bodies they chaired during the past two years (SC/9204).
  • Middle East: At press time, the monthly briefing and consultations on the latest developments in the Middle East were expected to be held on 21 December.
  • UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA): Council members are currently deliberating on extending the mandate of UNOWA.

Full forecast

 

 

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