March 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 February 2012
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AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew in March the mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Ian Martin, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNSMIL, is expected to present the report of the Secretary-General on UNSMIL and brief the Council on the latest developments. Prime Minister Abdurrahim El-Keib is also likely to be present for the briefing. 

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the panel of experts that was created under resolution 1973.

The Council is also expecting the Libya Sanctions Committee report on the threats posed by the proliferation of arms, in particular man-portable surface-to-air missiles, and its recommendations as required in resolution 2017.

UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 16 March and that of the panel of experts on 17 March.

Key Recent Developments
The National Transitional Council (NTC) adopted on 28 January a new electoral law to form Libya’s first constituent assembly. The law stipulates that two-thirds (136 seats) of the 200-member General National Congress be made up of candidates from political groups, with the rest (64 seats) going to independent candidates. The law permits the participation of dual-national electoral candidates and prohibits anyone who was part of the previous regime’s revolutionary committees or security apparatus to run as a candidate. It also requires each political party to have an equal number of men and women on its list of candidates for the 136 seats. Under the new law, electoral candidates must be at least 21 years old, whereas the minimum voting age is 18. The announced law scrapped an earlier draft proposal that had reserved 10 percent of the seats in the General National Congress for women. Members of the Higher National Electoral Commission were sworn in on 12 February. The commission is charged with making preparations to hold the elections.

On 17 February, Libyans celebrated the first anniversary of the uprising against the Qaddafi regime. However, no official celebrations were organised at a national level as a mark of respect for the people killed during the conflict. NTC Chairperson Mustafa Abdul Jalil said in a television address while marking the occasion that the tolerance displayed by the revolutionaries, of all Libyans whether they supported the revolution or not, did not mean they were incapable of dealing with threats to the stability of Libya. 

Post-conflict Libya continues to face several challenges. On 31 January, EU High Representative Catherine Ashton issued a statement noting the EU’s deep concern at the reports of torture and ill treatment of detainees in Misrata and urged the Libyan authorities to accelerate the process of bringing all detention facilities under their control. On the same day, deputy Prime Minister Mustafa Abu Shagour told a joint EU-UN workshop in Tripoli that “any violations of human rights will be subject to investigations.”

On 3 February, Omar Brebesh, Libya’s former ambassador to France was reported dead by the media. Brebesh, who had been working in the interim Foreign Ministry, was called in for questioning and subsequently detained by the Al-Shohada Ashura militia from Zintan on 19 January. A day later, his family received the news that his body was at a hospital in Zintan. A preliminary autopsy report and photographs indicated multiple injuries, allegedly due to torture.

Attacks against internally displaced persons (IDPs) have continued. On 6 February, seven people were killed at an IDP camp at Janzur Marine Academy near Tripoli. The people in the camp were from Tawarga, and most are dark-skinned Libyans. Some 35,000 residents of Tawarga are accused by inhabitants of the nearby town of Misrata of supporting Col. Qaddafi against the opposition and involvement in serious crimes.

Sporadic fighting has continued. Rival militias from Misrata and Zintan engaged in armed clashes in Tripoli on 1 February. No deaths or injuries were reported in that incident. On 13 February, 17 people were reported dead and 22 wounded during clashes lasting several days between the Zwai and Tabu tribes in the southeastern town of Al-Kufra. More than 50 people were reported dead following further clashes between the two tribes on 21 February.

On 13 February, representatives of approximately 100 militia groups from western Libya reportedly formed a new federation under the leadership of Col. Mokhtar Fernana. The federation’s declared aims are to prevent infighting and to exert greater influence over the NTC, parts of which are seen as corrupt.

On 17 February a message attributed to members of the ousted regime was widely circulated on the Internet declaring the formation of the Libyan Popular National Movement. Earlier, on 10 February, Saadi Al-Qaddafi, Col. Qaddafi’s son, said in a call to Al-Arabiya television that Libyans should expect an uprising and that he was in regular contact with people inside Libya who were unhappy with the present authorities. (Saadi is currently living in neighbouring Niger, which has refused to extradite him for fear of an unfair trial.)

Lawyers for Abdul Hakim Belhaj, head of the Tripoli Military Council, and Sami al-Saadi, a Libyan dissident, on 31 January launched a civil damages claim in England against Sir Mark Allen, a retired senior British Intelligence officer, for complicity in torture, misfeasance in public office and negligence. (Allen is accused of direct involvement in the unlawful rendition of Belhaj and al-Saadi to Qaddafi’s security services in 2004.)

On 5 February, several Syrian protesters stormed the Russian embassy in Tripoli, a day after Russia and China had vetoed a Council resolution on Syria on 4 February. The Libyan interim Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 9 February, noting that Libyan authorities had given Syria’s charge d’affaires and his staff in Tripoli 72 hours to leave the country. (The NTC officially recognised the Syrian opposition council as the legitimate authority in Syria in October 2011.)

Human Rights-Related Developments
Navi Pillay, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, commented during an interview with the Associated Press on 26 January that there was “torture, extra-judicial executions and rape of both men and women” in various detention facilities. Human rights and humanitarian organisations have been raising similar concerns. Médecins Sans Frontières suspended its operations in detention centres in Misrata, on 26 January, protesting the use of torture.

The Human Rights Council’s (HRC) Commission of Inquiry on Libya is expected to discuss the findings of its final report with members of the HRC in early March.

Key Issues
An overarching issue for the Council will be determining the concept of the post-conflict UN mission in Libya and its role in ensuring a successful transition from conflict to peacebuilding.  Determining the long-term role and timeframe for UNSMIL and ensuring its full deployment as well as effective functioning will be key issues for the Council in this context.

Minimising the impact of the recent conflict and its aftermath on the civilian population and delivering humanitarian assistance are two related issues for the Council.

Preventing large-scale reprisals and killings in a post-conflict Libya as well as preventing human rights violations and reported torture of detainees are closely related issues for the Council.

An ongoing issue is preventing the spread of sporadic violence between various armed rebel factions.

Determining the role of the panel of experts in its assistance to the Libya Sanctions Committee in the post-conflict period is an important issue for the Council.

Dealing with Libya’s assets freeze in an efficient manner is another key issue for the Council, as is its role in the implementation of resolution 1970 with regard to its referral of the Libyan situation to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and any referral-related trials.

The prevention of proliferation of heavy weaponry in a post-conflict Libya as well as the spill over effect in the Sahel region continues to be an issue for Council members.

A long-term issue will be the need for the continued coordination of efforts of various stakeholders and other international bodies in supporting the interim government.

Underlying Issues
The divisions within the NTC before the interim government is fully functional have become an underlying issue.

An emerging serious underlying problem is settling accounts with members of the previous regime.

Options
One option for the Council would be to extend UNSMIL’s mandate by six months and revise the mandate, after the June 2012 elections in Libya.

Extending UNSMIL’s mandate by a year but leaving enough flexibility to allow for revisions following consultations with the new government after the June elections is another option.

UNSMIL’s new mandate could, besides assistance to the Libyan authorities in accordance with resolution 2022, also include a monitoring role in the practical applications of human rights, rule of law and transitional justice in Libya with follow on regular briefings to the Council on any developments in this regard.

Regarding the panel of experts, the Council could either renew its mandate through the resolution extending UNSMIL, or the Council could adopt a separate resolution extending its mandate by another year as well as revisiting any outstanding sanctions imposed on Libya in this resolution.

With regard to the ICC, the Council could request an update briefing from the ICC prosecutor. A less likely option would be recalling, in a statement, obligations that Libya and other states have to the ICC under resolution 1970

Council Dynamics
Council members are in agreement that Libyan authorities face considerable challenges and that the renewed UNSMIL could and should play an important role. However, some members feel that the NTC must do more to extend its authority over armed militias as well as prevent widespread human rights violations of prisoners and IDPs. They feel that the country seems more divided than it did after the NTC declared Libya fully liberated on 23 October 2011.

Some Council members feel that UNSMIL should have an integrated mandate. However, other Council members feel that the UN should only focus on a few key tasks, such as assisting the Libyan authorities with the forthcoming elections and the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of rebels.

NATO’s previous role and the extent of its involvement during the revolution in Libya remain a source of contention. However, Council members seem to be in agreement that a divided Council will not benefit anyone when the situation in the country remains fragile.

The UK is the lead country on Libya.

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UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/2022 (2 December 2011) extended the mandate of UNSMIL until 16 March 2012 and asked UNSMIL to assist the Libyan authorities in addressing the threat of proliferation of arms, in particular MANPADS.
  • S/RES/2017 (31 October 2011) discussed the non-proliferation of MANPADS; chemical weapons stockpiles and other small arms.
  • S/RES/2016 (27 October 2011) lifted the no-fly zone and the provisions for the use of force for the protection of civilians.
  • S/RES/2009 (16 September 2011) authorised the deployment of UNSMIL and partially lifted sanctions.
  • S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) authorised all necessary measures to protect civilians in Libya and enforce the arms embargo, imposed a no-fly zone, strengthened the sanctions regime and established a panel of experts.
  • S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC, imposed an arms embargo and targeted sanctions and established a sanctions committee.

Secretary-General’s Report

  • S/2011/727 (22 November 2011) was an update report on UNSMIL.

Latest Meeting Records

Other

  • S/2012/42 (17 January 2012) transmitted the report of the assessment mission on the impact of the Libyan crisis on the Sahel region.
  • S/2012/32 (12 January 2012) was the letter from the chair of the Sanctions Committee submitting an annual report the committee’s activities.

Other Relevant Facts

Chair of the Sanctions Committee

José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal)

Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts

  1. Youseif Fahed Ahmed Alserhan, Jordan (maritime)
  2. Oumar Dièye Sidi, Niger (customs)
  3. Simon Dilloway, UK (finance)
  4. Theodore M. Murphy, US (humanitarian and regional)
  5. Giovanna Perri, Italy (finance)
  6. Salim Raad, Lebanon (heavy weapons)
  7. Savannah de Tessières, France (small arms and light weapons)
  8. Ahmed Zerhouni, Algeria (aviation)

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL

Ian Martin (UK)

Full Forecast

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