March 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 February 2012
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Status Update

Syria: The Security Council voted on a draft resolution (S/2012/77) condemning the violence in Syria and supporting the Arab League’s 22 January decision to facilitate a Syrian-led political transition on 4 February. Russia and China vetoed the draft resolution with all other Council members voting in favour (S/PV.6711). During the monthly Middle East briefing on 28 February, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe, briefed on the deteriorating situation in Syria saying there were credible reports of in excess of 7,500 dead (S/PV.6725). At press time, it seemed likely that many Council members would raise Syria in the informal consultations that regularly follow the briefing.

DRC: On 7 February, the Council heard a briefing (S/PV.6712) from Roger Meece, Special Representative and Head of the MONUSCO on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2012/65). The report notes that serious irregularities were observed in the presidential and parliamentary elections of 28 November 2011, and urges the Independent National Electoral Commission to address the shortcomings in a timely manner through a comprehensive review of the process and apply the lessons learned to the provincial and local elections scheduled for 2012 and 2013 respectively. Following the briefing, the Council held closed consultations with Meece and Hervé Ladsous, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, following his recent visit to the DRC.

Secretary General’s Briefing on the AU Summit: On 8 February, the Secretary-General briefed Council members in informal consultations on his visit to Addis Ababa where he attended the AU Summit from 29-30 January. He highlighted some issues relating to Sudan and South Sudan, including the ongoing dispute over oil production and transportation. He had, on the margins of the AU meeting, met with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit as well as with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, both of whom are involved in negotiations to end the dispute.

Kosovo: On 8 February, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet briefed the Council on UNMIK (S/PV.6713). (Special Representative Farid Zarif participated in the debate via video teleconference.) Mulet, in presenting the Secretary-General’s latest report, said that the resumption of dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo had led both sides to renew their efforts to stabilise the situation on the ground. On 14-15 February, ethnic Serbs in four municipalities in northern Kosovo voted overwhelmingly not to accept the authority of the government in Pristina. The result had no legal consequences and Belgrade had warned that the referendum would not contribute to a solution on the Kosovo issue. On 24 February, Serbia and Kosovo reached important agreements on allowing Kosovo to participate in its own right at regional meetings (Kosovo’s nameplate will have a footnote explaining its disputed status) and on the implementation of the integrated management for border crossings. On 1-2 March, EU leaders were expected to formalise a decision on whether to grant Serbia EU candidate status.

UNISFA: On 9 February, Council members held consultations on the Secretary-General’s report (S/2012/68) on UNISFA. Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous briefed the members during the consultations.

Sudan/Darfur: Council members held consultations on 10 February on the final report of the Panel of Experts of the Sudan Sanctions Committee (the “1591 Committee”). During the consultations, Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), Chair of the Sudan Sanctions Committee, reported to Council members on the initial discussions that the committee had had on the panel’s final report. On 17 February, the Council renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts for one year in resolution 2035 (S/PV.6716). 

OSCE: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) current chairperson, Ireland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Eamon Gilmore, briefed the Council on 9 February on OSCE’s priorities and challenges (S/PV.6715). Among priorities during the Irish presidency of the 56-nation body he listed giving prominence to the protection of a wide range of human rights and fundamental freedoms. Among the challenges, he mentioned transnational threats such as terrorism, organised crime, drugs, and trafficking and stressed that he intended to build on the joint efforts of the OSCE and the UN to tackle them. The briefing was followed by a discussion in which all 15 Council members took the floor.

DPRK: On 10 February, Council members held regularly scheduled consultations during which the Chair of the DPRK Sanctions Committee (the “1718 Committee”), Ambassador José Filipe Morales (Portugal), briefed members on the committee’s work. The committee’s most recent development was its agreement on an Implementation Assistance Notice (IAN), dated 5 December 2011, which provides states with guidelines on the implementation of the prohibition of exporting “luxury goods” to the DPRK. (It is the third such IAN that the committee has finalised and is now published on its website.)

Peace Consolidation in West Africa and the Sahel: On 21 February, the Council held a high-level debate on the impact of transnational organised crime on peace and security in West Africa and the wider Sahel region (S/PV.6717). The President of Togo, Faure Gnassingbé, presided over the debate. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, the head of UNODC Yuri Fedotov and Benin’s Minister of State for National Security, Issifou Kogul  N’Douro, briefed. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/2) that emphasised the importance of a system-wide UN action to enable coordinated responses to transnational threats, as well as the need for support for regional and international initiatives. The statement also called on states that have not ratified relevant international conventions to do so in order to combat drug trafficking, piracy and corruption.

Timor-Leste: On 23 February, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2037 extending the mandate of UNMIT until 31 December. The Council endorsed the plan of UNMIT’s phased drawdown later this year, “in accordance with the wishes of the Government of Timor-Leste, conditions on the ground and following the successful completion of the 2012 electoral process.” The adoption of the resolution followed a debate in the Council, during which incumbent President José Ramos-Horta spoke about Timor-Leste’s wishes for the UN’s post-UNMIT presence (S/PV.6720). He said Timor-Leste wanted and needed “international partnership underpinned by a modest United Nations mission in line with our country’s real needs and adjusted to the evolving reality on the ground.” In briefing the Council, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative, Ameerah Haq, said 2012 would be a critical year for the country and a chance for an orderly transition to a new government as well as continued stability and security.

Terrorism: On 23 February, the Council issued a press statement (SC/10556), condemning the terrorist attack in New Delhi, India, which aimed and injured Israeli diplomatic personnel and civilians, and the recent attempted terrorist attack in Tbilisi, Georgia against Israeli diplomats.

Women, Peace and Security: The Security Council held an open debate on the Secretary-General’s annual report on conflict-related sexual violence (S/2012/33) on 23 February. Margot Wallström, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative on the issue, briefed together with Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping, Hervé Ladsous, and a representative from civil society, Amina Megheirbi, who briefed on behalf of the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace and Security and also heads a Libya-based NGO on women’s empowerment (S/PV.6722). The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/3) which commended the Special Representative’s work and the importance of the associated Team of Experts. The statement invited her to continue to provide briefings to the Council and for the Secretary-General to recommend appropriate actions. It also stressed the need for continued data collection under the Monitoring, Analysis and Reporting Arrangements on sexual violence in armed conflict, post-conflict situations and other situations relevant to the implementation of resolution 1888 (which created the office of the Special Representative).

Gulf of Guinea Piracy: On 27 February, the Council discussed the threats to peace and security in the Gulf of Guinea region posed by piracy and other forms of armed robbery (S/PV.6723). The Council last considered the issue on 19 October 2011, unanimously passing resolution 2018 condemning acts of piracy and armed robbery in the region on 31 October 2011. Resolution 2018 affirmed the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 as the legal framework for the fight against piracy and armed robbery on the high seas. It also welcomed the Secretary-General’s plan to send an assessment mission to examine the problem. On 18 January, the Secretary-General submitted the report of the mission, which was dispatched from 7 to 24 November 2011 (S/2012/45). The report estimates that piracy has resulted in a current annual loss of revenue of $2 billion to the West African economies and that the number of ships docking at Cotonou, Benin, has declined by 70 percent as a result of the attacks. At press time the Council was expected to adopt a resolution on 29 February welcoming the report and recommendations of the assessment mission, and calling on the Secretary-General to help mobilise resources to assist in building national and regional capacities, and in coordinating international assistance for maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea.

Middle East: On 28 February, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe briefed the Council (S/PV.6725). Pascoe reported on the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process; the recent Israeli approval of settlements and demolitions of Palestinian homes particularly in East Jerusalem and Area C of the West Bank; Fatah-Hamas reconciliation; the continued exchange of rocket fire from Gaza and Israeli airstrikes. Council members met in informal consultations following the briefing. On 8 February, the Secretary-General briefed Council members in informal consultations on his recent visit to the region. (He was in Jordan, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories between 31 January and 2 February.)

Tribunals: On February 29, the Council adopted a resolution appointing Hassan Bubacar Jallow as Prosecutor of the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals for a term of four years, starting 1 March. Jallow is currently the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda and will continue to hold that position alongside his new one.

Security Council Missions: At press time, on 28 February Council members were set to discuss in consultations Security Council missions. (The consultations had initially been scheduled for 22 February.) Following the Council’s return on 16 February from its four-day visit to Haiti, Council members were likely to discuss several visit options for later in 2012. These seemed to include a mission to Afghanistan and several African options, notably the DRC (which the Council has not visited since May 2010), Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire, as well as Libya, possibly with a stopover in Cairo to meet with the League of Arab States. Other potential missions included Kosovo, Timor-Leste and the Middle East. (In the UNMIK debate on 8 February, Serbia’s Foreign Minister invited the Council to “visit Serbia, including Kosovo.” On 22 February, the President of East-Timor, José Ramos-Horta, invited those present to visit Timor-Leste in 2012 “to see for themselves how far our country has come.” At the end of February, Riyad H. Mansour, Permanent Observer of Palestine, looked likely to send out a letter inviting Council members to visit the Occupied Palestinian Territories.) Most recently, the Council embarked on three missions (DRC, Afghanistan, Uganda and Sudan) in 2010 and one to Africa in 2011 (Addis Ababa, Sudan and Nairobi).

Full Forecast

 

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