March 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 February 2012
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AFRICA

Somalia

Expected Council Action
In March, the Council is expected to hold an open debate on Somalia chaired by Under Secretary of State Henry Bellingham (UK) as a follow-up to the 23 February London conference. A video-conference briefing by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Augustine Mahiga, is expected and a presidential statement is the likely outcome.

Key Recent Developments
On 22 February, the Council adopted resolution 2036 authorising an increase in the troop ceiling for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) from 12,000 to 17,731 uniformed personnel and an extension of its presence to three sectors outside Mogadishu as requested by the AU. It also strengthened AMISOM’s mandate by explicitly authorising the use of all necessary means to reduce the threat from the Islamist rebel group Al Shabaab.

Resolution 2036 furthermore authorised an expansion of the UN support package for the mission to include reimbursement of contingent-owned equipment as recommended by the Secretary-General in his 31 January special report on AMISOM’s new strategic concept as endorsed by the AU on 5 January. (In comments to the press after the vote, Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant (UK) said this would increase funding for the mission from UN assessed contributions from an estimated $250 million to around $550 million.)

The resolution added a provision banning the export and import of charcoal from Somalia (requested by Somalia in its letter to the Council of 4 January) and imposing targeted sanctions against those violating the ban. (For more details, please see the What’s in Blue story of 21 February at www.whatsinblue.org.)

The AU welcomed the adoption of the resolution and praised the Council for its support to AMISOM.

Under-Secretary-General for Field Support Susana Malcorra briefed Council members in informal consultations on 6 February on the Secretary-General’s special report. She provided more details about key aspects of AMISOM’s strategic concept, particularly on the financial implications of different options for expanding the support package for AMISOM as proposed by the Secretary-General.

On 22 February, Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs Patricia O’Brien briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s report of 20 January on anti-piracy tribunals. Among other things, she recalled that states in the region did not favour the establishment of specialised courts with jurisdiction exclusive to piracy and that with international assistance, prosecution capacity in those states could be increased to meet the projected demand in the near future at a relatively moderate cost. In the same meeting, Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Yury Fedotov, briefed the Council on UNODC’s counter-piracy programme.

On 23 February, the UK hosted an international conference in London with the aim of delivering a new international approach to Somalia. It brought together representatives of more than 40 governments, many at ministerial level, as well as a number of multi-lateral and regional organisations. Representatives from Somalia included the leaders of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs); the Presidents of Puntland, Galmudug and Somaliland; the Mayor of Mogadishu; and representatives of Aluh Sunnah wal Jamaah.

The communiqué from the conference focused on the political process, security and justice (including piracy and terrorism), stability and recovery (noting, however, that this would be further discussed at a conference in Istanbul in June), humanitarian issues and international coordination. It reconfirmed that the TFIs mandate ends in August 2012, welcomed the agreements reached so far on the way forward and expressed the participants’ readiness to act against spoilers of the peace process. It provided further details for the establishment of a joint financial management board aimed at increasing transparency and accountability with regard to the use of public revenues as well as international assistance.

Principles for support to the Somali security and justice sectors and for international support to local areas of stability in Somalia were spelled out in two separate annexes, whereas humanitarian issues were dealt with in a separate document. (The conference was preceded by a separate meeting on humanitarian issues co-chaired by the UN and the United Arab Emirates.) According to the communiqué, it was also agreed that the International Contact Group on Somalia would take the lead on carrying forward the work, but that it would be restructured and working groups would be established on political process; security and justice; and stability and development.

The second national constitutional conference for Somalia facilitated by the UN was held in Garowe from 15 to 17 February. The meeting, which was convened by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and hosted by the Puntland state government, brought together once again the signatories of the road map for ending the transition in Somalia and representatives of civil society. The meeting agreed on a set of principles for finalising the draft constitution and ending the transitional process, referred to as the Garowe II principles. (The outcome from the first constitutional conference, held from 21 to 23 December 2011, is referred to as Garowe I.) 

More specifically, the Garowe II principles provide further details about:

  • criteria and process for the creation of new federal states and national competencies while specifically recognising Puntland and Galmudug as states;
  • the system of government, deciding that Somalia shall adopt a parliamentary system with the electoral system for the lower house of parliament based on the principle of proportionality; and
  • implementation of the Garowe I principles, including the mandate and membership of the independent electoral commission and the national constituent assembly and the size and selection process of the new federal parliament.

Garowe II also calls for the drafting of the constitution to be completed by 20 April and confirms that the transition must end by August. It was agreed that the next constitutional consultative conference should be held in Mogadishu by the end of March.

On 3 February, the Sanctions Monitoring Group for Somalia and Eritrea met with the Sanctions Committee to present its mid-term report. On 17 February, the Committee listed one more individual as subject to the targeted sanctions. Ali Ahmed Nur Jim’ale was identified as a chief financier for Al Shabaab, which is already on the sanctions list.

Also on 3 February, the Food and Agriculture Organisation declared that famine conditions in Somalia had ended and that the number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance had decreased from 4 million to 2.34 million. However, it warned that the crisis was not over and called for coordinated, long-term international engagement.

On 10 February, Al Shabaab announced that it had merged with Al-Qaida. (While Al Shabaab had previously pledged allegiance to Al-Qaida, this announcement seems to indicate a new level of cooperation.)

Human Rights-Related Developments
The UN Independent Expert on the situation of Human Rights in Somalia, Shamsul Bari, expressed deep shock on 14 February over a new boat disaster in the Gulf of Aden that claimed the life of at least 11 Somalis, with a further 34 still missing. “Smuggling and trafficking in persons in Somalia has been a sad facet of the Somali conflict,” said Bari, who reported extensively on the plight of Somali boat people in a 2009 report to the Human Rights Council. “Such tragedy highlights the critical need to find a lasting and sustainable peace in Somalia so that people can live in a decent manner at home and are not constantly forced to flee their country to save their lives.” Bari hoped that the London conference on Somalia in February would contribute to strengthening the capacity of the Somali authorities, in particular the Puntland marine forces. Bari reminded all transit and host countries of their legal and humanitarian obligation to guarantee the safety and dignity of Somali refugees.

In a statement after the 23 February London conference, Amnesty International said the discussions had not adequately addressed the grave human rights situation in the country and stressed in particular the risk for civilians of the recent surge in military operations. It called on the international community to ensure enhanced monitoring of violations of international human rights and humanitarian law committed by any party to the conflict in Somalia.

Key Issues
A key issue for the Council in March is how to use the momentum generated by the London conference to devise a more strategic approach to Somalia.

Another key issue is implementation of resolution 2036, including consolidation of security in accordance with AMISOM’s new strategic concept and on the basis of clear military objectives integrated into a political strategy, effective regional cooperation and support for Somali security forces.

A continuing issue is the timely implementation of the road map and the Garowe I and II principles relating to the constitutional process.

The humanitarian situation also continues to be an issue. Although famine conditions have officially ended, concerns seem to be growing about the humanitarian impact of the expansion of AMISOM with regard to displacement and protection of civilians.  

A further issue is whether to take any follow-up action on the basis of the findings and proposals of the Secretary-General’s report on specialised anti-piracy courts in Somalia and other states in the region.

Options
Main options for the Council include:

  • adopting a presidential statement welcoming the outcome of the London conference and providing support to specific elements of the communiqué in different areas, such as the political process, security, piracy, economic development, humanitarian issues and international coordination;
  • welcoming also the Secretary-General’s report on anti-piracy tribunals and encouraging follow-up action as proposed in the report; and
  • considering in the sanctions committee further targeted sanctions against spoilers.

Council Dynamics
Council members appear generally supportive of the UK’s efforts to enhance the international community’s engagement on Somalia and its leadership role in organising the London conference (which many of them attended). They are therefore likely to support a presidential statement welcoming the outcome of the conference although the details still have to be agreed. Members seem to share the hope that the new momentum created on Somalia may now finally lead to lasting peace and stability in the country. There is, however, continuing concern about the ability of Somali leaders to implement in a timely manner the agreed framework for ending the transition.

While Council members overall appear united in their approach to Somalia, the negotiations over resolution 2036 demonstrated that there are still some differences of view  regarding AMISOM, in particular on the long divisive issue of providing UN funding from assessed contributions.  Thus, the most difficult moments during the negotiations related to troop levels and the details of the support package. While the UK was supportive of the AU requests, other European members—as well as the US—continued to have concerns about the cost of the expansion. There were also differences over whether to authorise funding for a new maritime component that is part of the new strategic concept for AMISOM.

In response to the concerns about cost, the resolution emphasises the responsibility of regional organisations to secure their own resources and funding and reiterates calls for additional contributions to the UN trust fund for AMISOM. There are also references to the general importance of strengthening the capacity of regional and subregional organisations in conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict stabilisation. A new reporting requirement—requesting the AU, through the Secretary-General, to keep the Council informed, with written reports every 60 days about the implementation of AMISOM’s mandate—was included to ensure greater accountability and will provide an opportunity for Council members to keep the mission under closer review.

The UK is the lead country on Somalia in the Council, while India chairs the sanctions committee and Russia has taken the lead on legal issues related to piracy.

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UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) authorised an increase in AMISOM’s troop ceiling as well as an expansion of its UN support package and imposed a ban on importing charcoal from Somalia.
  • S/RES/2015 (24 October 2011) called for additional measures to strengthen prosecution of Somali pirates and requested a report from the Secretary-General within 90 days.  
  • S/RES/1844 (20 November 2008) imposed targeted sanctions relating to the situation in Somalia.

Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2012/74 (31 January 2012) was the Secretary-General’s special report on Somalia.
  • S/2012/50 (20 January 2012) was the report requested by resolution 2015 on legal issues related to piracy.
  • S/2011/759 (9 December 2011) was the latest regular report.

Meeting Records

  • S/PV.6719 (22 February 2012) was a briefing on piracy by the Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs.
  • S/PV.6718 (22 February 2012) was the adoption of resolution 2036 with explanations of vote by several Council members.

Other

  • SC/10545 (20 February 2012) was a sanctions committee press release announcing one more listing under resolution 1844.
  • S/2012/4 (4 January 2012) was a letter from Somalia requesting the Council to support an international ban on purchasing charcoal from Somalia.

Useful Additional Sources

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