Sudan and South Sudan
Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to hold a briefing and consultations in March on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS). It appears that Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous and/or Hilde Johnson, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNMISS, will brief. At press time, no formal outcome was anticipated.
The tense situation along the Sudan and South Sudan border, unresolved issues from the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the situation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile may continue to occupy the attention of Council members in March.
The mandate of UNMISS expires on 9 July.
Key Recent Developments
In February, despite intensive negotiations, the dispute between Sudan and South Sudan over oil revenue remained unresolved. The crux of the dispute is that the two parties have been unable to agree on a mutually acceptable pipeline transit fee for oil flowing from South Sudan to Sudan’s Port Sudan on the Red Sea, currently the only outlet for oil intended for export to the outside world.
South Sudan, which derives approximately 98 percent of its income from oil, has maintained a complete shutdown of its oil production since late January. Juba initiated the shutdown after accusing Khartoum of stealing $815 million worth of oil being transported through Sudan from South Sudan.
South Sudan has recently pursued plans for transporting oil that bypass Sudan. On 24 January, South Sudan signed a deal with Kenya to build a pipeline to the Kenyan port of Lamu on the Indian Ocean. South Sudan has held talks with a US construction company regarding the construction of this pipeline, while the Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan has also initiated a feasibility study with regard to the project.
On 9 February, South Sudan also signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia to build a pipeline through Ethiopia that would end in Djibouti on the Gulf of Aden. The pipeline would be one element of a larger economic cooperation plan that South Sudan and Ethiopia have agreed with Djibouti that also includes expanding telecommunication networks to South Sudan from Djibouti and Ethiopia and building roads and railways in the region.
On 10 February, Sudan and South Sudan signed a memorandum of understanding on non-aggression and cooperation. In the document, both sides committed to “respect the sovereignty of the other state in all respects” and “refrain from launching any attack including bombardment” against each other. On 13 February, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the agreement in a statement attributable to his spokesperson.
On 14 February, South Sudan accused Sudan of violating the agreement, alleging that Sudanese forces bombed the disputed border town of Jau. Four South Sudanese soldiers were reportedly killed in the attack.
On February 21, South Sudan expelled Lin Yingcai, the head of the Chinese-Malaysian oil company Petrodar, accusing him of not cooperating with an investigation that it was conducting on the alleged diversion of South Sudanese oil by Sudan.
Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos briefed the Council in consultations on 10 February regarding her trip to South Sudan from 1 to 4 February. During the consultations, Amos expressed her concern at the alarming humanitarian situation in South Sudan, emphasising in particular the high levels of food insecurity. It seems that she also noted that the negative economic impact of South Sudan’s oil-production shutdown could hinder the country’s ability to address the difficult humanitarian situation.
The governments of Sudan and South Sudan signed a memorandum of understanding on the repatriation of South Sudanese nationals residing in Sudan on 12 February. In the memorandum, the parties agreed to “facilitate and assist in the voluntary return and reintegration of the nationals of South Sudan in peace and dignity.” (Approximately 500,000 people of southern origin reside in Sudan. The deadline for their repatriation to South Sudan, as agreed by the parties, is 8 April. Those who have not returned to South Sudan by that date are expected to “regularise their status” in Sudan, although it is unclear precisely what this entails and whether it would include the privileges of citizenship.)
On 14 February, the Council issued a press statement on South Kordofan and Blue Nile, states in Sudan that border South Sudan. In the statement, the Council expressed “deep and growing alarm” at malnutrition and food insecurity in parts of Blue Nile and South Kordofan. The Council called on the Sudanese government to allow immediate access to UN personnel to undertake a needs assessment. The statement also called on the Sudanese government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-Northern Sector (SPLM-N) to ensure that the UN and humanitarian organisations have “safe, unhindered and immediate access” to civilians affected by the fighting. The Council underscored the importance of resolving the remaining CPA issues as well. (The statement was not read to the media, but released to the press in a procedurally discrete fashion while most of the permanent representatives, including the Council president, were in Haiti participating in a Council mission.)
One hundred and twenty Japanese engineers arrived in South Sudan on 20 February to join UNMISS. They will help construct bridges and roads in the new country, which is lacking in infrastructure.
At press time, Council members were expected to hold an “informal interactive dialogue” on the situation in Sudan and South Sudan on 27 February. Thabo Mbeki, Chair of the AU High Level Implementation Panel, and Haile Menkerios, UN Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, were expected to address Council members during the meeting. (Held outside of Council chambers, the informal interactive dialogue is a flexible format that allows the Council to meet with actors—in this case, the AU High Level Implementation Panel—with whom it would not be able to meet in consultations inside the Council chambers.)
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Human Rights-Related Developments |
Key Issues
One key and ongoing issue is the impasse in resolving the residual elements of the CPA that ended the Second Sudanese Civil War in 2005, including oil-sharing, border demarcation and the status of Abyei. (Abyei is the disputed territory that straddles Sudan and South Sudan). The failure to resolve these matters continues to exacerbate tensions between the two countries, as evidenced, by South Sudan’s shutdown of its oil production, recurring violence along the Sudan-South Sudan border or the presence of security forces from Sudan and South Sudan in Abyei.
Another key issue is the need for appropriate measures to be taken to facilitate the repatriation of South Sudanese nationals residing in Sudan in a way that mitigates the potentially negative humanitarian, economic and security impacts of their return to South Sudan.
A further key issue is to build on the momentum of the recent press statement on South Kordofan and Blue Nile to ensure that the Council’s concerns are heeded, including improved humanitarian access to civilians affected by conflict in these two regions.
Another key issue is how to promote inter-communal reconciliation between different ethnic groups in South Sudan. A related issue is the need to curtail the proliferation of weapons in South Sudan that are used in many of these attacks. (In its press statement of 10 January on South Sudan, the Council “expressed concern about the quantity and sophistication of weapons used in recent inter-communal conflicts.”)
An additional key issue is addressing the deteriorating humanitarian situation in South Sudan, especially in regard to food insecurity. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that nearly five million people in South Sudan will face food shortages this year due to factors such as displacement by conflict, high food prices and a poor harvest. (The population of South Sudan is approximately 8 million people.)
A further important issue is the need for heavy utility helicopters in UNMISS to enhance the mobility of the mission so that it can respond more expeditiously and effectively to fulfil its mandate to protect civilians. (These helicopters are needed for the transport of troops and equipment.)
Given the many humanitarian, security and other challenges facing South Sudan, another key and continuing issue is how to manage the expectations of the South Sudanese people for a peace dividend, as the excitement over the country’s recent independence begins to wane.
Options
One option is for the Council to receive the UNMISS briefing but take no action at the current time.
Regarding the heightened inter-communal violence in South Sudan, the Council may also consider requesting the Secretary-General to launch a fact-finding mission to determine the sources of weapons used in the inter-communal violence over the past several months. Such an investigation might equip the Council with the information it needs to craft appropriate strategies to curtail the entry of weapons into South Sudan.
Given the significant concerns among Council members about the grave humanitarian situation in South Sudan and in certain areas of Sudan, the Council could consider requesting additional briefings from Amos or other OCHA officials as additional information becomes available about the challenges faced and progress made with regard to events on the ground.
The Council could also consider issuing a statement that reiterates and expands upon its call in the 14 February press statement for the parties to resolve residual CPA issues. In such a statement, the Council could express alarm at, and encourage the parties to break the impasse over oil revenue sharing, as well as highlight the urgency of resolving other post-CPA issues that it believes are particularly significant sources of tension between Sudan and South Sudan.
Council Dynamics
There is significant concern among Council members at the inter-communal violence and difficult humanitarian situation in South Sudan. Some members are also particularly worried that there is a shortage of heavy utility helicopters in UNMISS, which inhibits the mission’s ability to mobilise quickly with requisite troops in response to crisis situations. Concerns about mission mobility are especially heightened by the poor road infrastructure in South Sudan.
There is also growing alarm among several Council members about the lack of progress by Sudan and South Sudan in resolving many of the fundamental political and economic issues separating them. In particular, many members seem alarmed by the current row over oil revenue and the way it has escalated tensions between the parties.
The 14 February press statement on South Kordofan and Blue Nile seems to represent a sign of progress, as the Council had been unable to achieve consensus during several prior attempts on a statement on the humanitarian situation in one or both of these states. The statement appears to have accommodated the concerns of some members, who felt that there is a need for a clearer assessment of the situation on the ground. Although issued in an unusually discrete manner while the Council was on a mission to Haiti, some members appear hopeful that the statement may bode well for the Council’s future work on Sudan and South Sudan, suggesting that members are capable of compromising to address difficult challenges.
The US is the lead country in the Council on UNMISS.
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Security Council Resolutions |
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Latest Secretary-General’s Report |
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Security Council Press Statement |
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Letters |
Other Relevant Facts
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UNMISS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission |
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Hilde Frafjord Johnson (Norway) |
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UNMISS: Size and Duration |
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Maximum authorised strength: up to 7,000 military and 900 police |
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Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Sudan and South Sudan |
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Haile Menkerios (South Africa) |
