Afghanistan
Expected Council Action
In March, the Council is expected to extend the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) for a further 12 months ahead of its expiration on 23 March. Ján Kubiš, the new head of the mission, is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the mission (due in early March) at a debate in the Council.
In resolution 1974, the Council requested the Secretary-General to “conduct a comprehensive review of UNAMA’s mandated activities and the United Nations’ support in Afghanistan…with a view to informing the Council’s review of UNAMA’s mandate in March 2012.” The elements of the review that were approved by the Secretary-General’s Policy Committee in early February will help to inform the Secretary-General’s March report, although it is unclear how they will be reflected in the report and what impact they might have on UNAMA’s mandate. (The review had been suggested in a letter from Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Zalmai Rassoul, to the Council on 1 March 2011. For more background on the letter, please see the Afghanistan brief in our July 2011 Forecast.)
Key Recent Developments
Two high-level international conferences on Afghanistan were held in late 2011. On 2 November 2011, the representatives of more than a dozen states and multilateral organisations, including the UN, NATO and the EU, convened in Istanbul, Turkey, to discuss strategies for promoting security and cooperation in Afghanistan and the neighbouring region.
On 5 December 2011, Germany hosted an international conference in Bonn entitled “Afghanistan and the International Community: From Transition to the Transformation Decade,” which included the participation of 85 countries and 15 international organisations. The conference focused on reaffirming the partnership between the international community and Afghanistan in upholding mutual commitments on a broad range of issues, including governance, security, the peace process, socioeconomic development and regional cooperation. On 6 December, Afghanistan and Germany sent the conclusions of the Bonn conference to the Secretary-General, who circulated them to the Security Council and the General Assembly. The Council on 19 December, adopted a presidential statement welcoming the Bonn conference and its conclusions and commending the outcome of the Istanbul conference. The statement also underscored the UN’s critical role in Afghanistan. Follow-up conferences at the ministerial level are currently scheduled (to the Istanbul conference in June in Kabul and the Bonn conference in July in Tokyo).
Violent incidents continued to occur in Afghanistan. On 6 December, a militant Sunni group based in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, launched coordinated bombings that claimed the lives of more than 63 Shiites at religious celebrations marking the Shiite holy day of Ashura in Kabul, Kandahar and Mazar-i-Sharif. (The attacks marked the first time that this militant group had struck in Afghanistan.)
Insurgents conducted four separate attacks on 18 and 19 January in the south of Afghanistan that resulted in more than two-dozen deaths. One of the four attacks was a suicide car bombing outside NATO’s Kandahar airbase. The other three, which occurred in Helmand Province, included an attack on a police checkpoint in the Now Zad district (followed by a gunfight between Afghan police and insurgents), a roadside bomb that claimed the lives of a politician and an intelligence official in the Nad Ali district and a suicide bombing carried out by a motorcyclist targeting a joint Afghan-NATO patrol in Kajaki district.
Four French soldiers were killed on 20 January by Afghan security forces on a training mission in the eastern part of Afghanistan. (This incident was one of a series of attacks in recent months by Afghan security forces, or insurgents disguised as Afghan security personnel, on NATO troops.)
At the US’s Bagram airbase in Parwan Province, Afghan workers spotted NATO personnel burning books, including an unspecified number of Korans, on 20 February. The incident sparked violent protests across Afghanistan that had lasted for several days and claimed the lives of 23 people at press time. In the aftermath of the incident, some members of Afghanistan’s parliament encouraged the Afghan people to fight the US military. On 23 February, US President Barack Obama apologised to Afghan President Hamid Karzai and to the Afghan people for the incident in a letter delivered by the US ambassador, Ryan Crocker. After two US military officers were shot and killed, apparently by an Afghan national, in the Ministry of the Interior in Kabul on 25 February, US General John Allen, the NATO commander in the country, ordered that US advisors withdraw from all government ministries in the capital. Also on 25 February, protestors attacked a UNAMA office in Kunduz Province in northern Afghanistan. In response UNAMA announced on 27 February that it would temporarily relocate international personnel from this facility.
In early 2012, NATO and some key members of the alliance made important announcements about their future military engagement in Afghanistan. French President Nicholas Sarkozy said on 27 January that France would fully withdraw its combat forces from the country by the end of 2013. On 1 February, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta announced that by mid-2013 the US military would fully transition from a combat role to one of assistance and advice to Afghan security forces. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen reaffirmed during a 3 February press conference in Brussels that NATO would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.
In early January, the Taliban began the process of setting up a political office in Qatar, where Taliban figures held confidence-building talks with US officials later in the month. During the talks, Taliban officials requested the release of prisoners held at the US military base at Guantánamo Bay. Marc Grossman, the US Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, has said that the US could engage in genuine peace talks with the Taliban only after they renounce terrorism and commit to the peace process in Afghanistan. It seems that Grossman also briefed Karzai about his discussions with the Taliban.
On 15 February, Karzai indicated in an interview that Afghan government representatives had held initial discussions with the Taliban, signalling an apparent departure from previous behaviour by the Taliban, which had been reluctant to engage directly with the government. However, on 16 February, the Taliban issued a statement in which it claimed that it had not met with government representatives.
Tensions surfaced between Afghanistan and Pakistan on 16 February after Karzai, who was on a two-day visit to Islamabad, requested Pakistan’s support in convincing insurgents to negotiate with his government. On 17 February, Hina Rabbani Khar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, said it was “preposterous” to assume that Pakistan would be able to do this.
On 21 February, Khar expressed Pakistan’s reluctance to give support for US-led peace talks with the Taliban in Qatar, noting that it did not appear that this initiative had the backing of Afghanistan. Karzai has stated that he would prefer if peace talks with the Taliban were held in Saudi Arabia, rather than Qatar. (Some reports have suggested that Karzai may have felt sidelined by the Qatar discussions, as they were started without his initiative.)
On 24 February, Yousuf Raza Gilani, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, appealed to the Taliban to engage in peace talks with the government of Afghanistan. This marked the first time Pakistan had made such a public appeal to the Taliban.
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Human Rights-Related Developments |
Key Issues
A key issue is that there are considerable concerns about the ability of Afghan security forces to perform effectively as they assume greater responsibility from International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) countries that are in the process of drawing down their troop levels.
A related issue is the need for sustained international financial support for the salaries of Afghan security forces moving ahead, especially considering the current era of financial austerity.
If the security environment continues to deteriorate, an important issue for the Council will be how effectively UNAMA, which is a political mission, is able to conduct its mandated activities.
Another key issue is how to support the reconciliation process in Afghanistan especially since it remains unclear how committed key elements of the Taliban are to negotiating directly with the Afghanistan government.
A key issue is also the need for the government to promote political inclusiveness and participation among the broader population and to strengthen its human rights policies.
Also an important issue is whether the international community will be able to use the commitments made at the recent international conferences in Istanbul and Bonn as a springboard for sustained, long-term support for Afghanistan. Related to this is how participants in the upcoming follow-up conferences in Kabul in June and Tokyo in July build upon the commitments made in Istanbul and Bonn respectively.
Options
In renewing UNAMA’s mandate, the Council could:
- reaffirm the strategic consensus achieved at the Bonn conference and encourage efforts to provide support for the commitments made during the conference;
- underscore the importance of regional cooperation, noting in particular the commitments made during the Istanbul conference and encouraging support for them;
- welcome the opening of the Taliban office in Qatar as a positive step in the reconciliation process, while encouraging further dialogue on the peace process among the Afghan government, the Taliban and other key stakeholders; and
- emphasise the importance of respecting Afghanistan’s sovereignty, while also underscoring the critical importance of UNAMA in assisting Afghan authorities in developing the capacity of governing institutions.
The Council could also use the opportunity of the mandate renewal to highlight the need for the government of Afghanistan to strengthen its respect for human rights. Two reports that UNAMA produced in late 2011 in conjunction with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights cast a negative light on the government’s human rights record. “Treatment of Conflict-Related Detainees in Afghan Custody”, provides detailed evidence of torture and abuse of detainees by the Afghan National Police and the National Directorate of Security in numerous detention facilities across Afghanistan and “A Long Way to Go: Implementation of the Elimination of Violence against Women Law in Afghanistan“, argues that the August 2009 law regarding the elimination of violence against women has not been widely applied. (The head of UNAMA’s human rights component briefed Council members in an Arria formula meeting on 7 February.)
Council Dynamics
There is widespread support in the Council for UNAMA’s mandate, particularly as it relates to supporting issues such as national reconciliation, human rights, development and the rule of law. Council members are likewise broadly in favour of promoting greater Afghan ownership of security, political and economic institutions, especially as ISAF draws down. However, there appears to be concern among several Council members about the extremely fragile security environment and what implications this could have on UNAMA’s effectiveness moving forward, especially if Afghan security forces are unable to provide adequate protection as they assume greater responsibility for security.
In addition to permanent members Russia and China, the current Council membership includes several other countries in Afghanistan’s neighbourhood, such as India, Pakistan and Azerbaijan. Russia has consistently expressed its concern about drug trafficking and civilian casualties in the conflict, while India seems particularly sensitive to the terrorist threat posed by extremists in Afghanistan. New Council member Pakistan has pledged its commitment to a stable, peaceful and economically successful Afghanistan, while suggesting that it has been unjustly accused of not doing enough to combat extremists along its border with Afghanistan.
Germany is the lead country in the Council on Afghanistan.
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Security Council Resolutions |
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Latest Secretary-General’s Report |
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Other |
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Other Relevant Facts
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Special Representative of the Secretary-General and UNAMA’s Head of Mission |
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Ján Kubiš (Slovakia) |
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UNAMA: Size, Composition and Duration |
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Strength (as of 31 January 2012): 415 international civilians, 1,728 local civilians, 13 military observers, 2 police, 76 UN volunteers Duration: 28 March 2002 to present; mandate expires on 23 March 2012. |
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ISAF Military Commander |
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Gen. John R. Allen (US) |
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Senior Civilian Representative |
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Ambassador Simon Gass (UK) |
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ISAF: Size, Composition and Duration |
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Total strength (as of 9 January 2012): about 130,236 troops; 28 Provincial Reconstruction Teams Contributors of military personnel: 50 NATO and non-NATO countries Current top contributors: US, UK, Germany, France and Italy Duration: 20 December 2001 to present; mandate expires on 13 October 2012. |
