June 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 May 2010
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AFRICA

Liberia

Expected Council Action
In June the Sanctions Committee on Liberia is expected to discuss a report from the Panel of Experts on the sanctions regime (i.e. arms embargo, travel bans and assets freeze). The current sanctions expire on 17 December and the mandate of the Panel of Experts expires on 20 December. The mandate of the peacekeeping operation, UNMIL, expires on 30 September. 

Key Issues
The key issue for the Sanctions Committee in June is effective implementation of the current sanctions.

The panel’s assessment in its last report was mixed. While it found no evidence of violations of the arms embargo, it noted that the capacity of the Liberian government to control weapons and to provide security remained low. Regarding diamonds, although the Liberian government was in compliance with some requirements of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, it was not in compliance with regard to the maintenance and sharing of data, and the political will to implement the diamond certification scheme had diminished “at least within the Ministry of Lands, Mines and Energy.” There were numerous breaches of basic processes and criteria relating to the awarding of forestry contracts and violations of conditions of waivers granted by the Sanctions Committee on the travel ban. The effectiveness of the freezing of assets of designated individuals and entities continued to be low.

Underlying Problems
Incomplete restoration of effective state authority throughout the country has hampered effective implementation of the sanctions. The inadequate level of preparedness of the Liberian security forces to assume full security responsibilities has also been a source of concern. The socioeconomic situation remains dire, with high levels of poverty and unemployment. That and the lack of basic infrastructure continue to pose latent threats to stability in the country. Tensions in the process leading to elections in Liberia next year also have the potential to threaten stability.

The fragile security situation, continued instability, unpredictability in the subregion and drug trafficking pose additional challenges.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1903 (17 December 2009) renewed the sanctions regime for Liberia for a further 12 months and extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 20 December 2010.
  • S/RES/1885 (15 September 2009) renewed UNMIL’s mandate until 30 September 2010.
  • S/RES/1521 (22 December 2003) imposed sanctions.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2010/ 88 (17 February 2010) was the latest report on UNMIL.
  • S/2007/479 (5 December 2007) was the initial drawdown plan for UNMIL.

Other

  • S/2010/79 (8 February 2010) was the letter from the Secretary-General informing the Council of his appointment of members to the Panel of Experts on Liberian sanctions.
  • S/2009/640 (11 December 2009) was the report of the Panel of Experts on Liberia.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark)

UNMIL Force Commander

Lieutenant-General Sikander Afzal (Pakistan)

UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Strength as of 28 February 2010: 10,427 personnel, including 8,982 troops, 127 military observers and 1318 police
  • Key contributing countries: Bangladesh, Nigeria and Pakistan
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: US$561 million

UNMIL: Duration

September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2010

Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee

Ivan Barbalić (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Panel of Experts on Liberia

  • Rowan Bosworth-Davies (UK, expert on finance)
  • Wynet V. Smith (Canada, expert on natural resources and coordinator of the panel)
  • Hervé Gonsolin (France, expert on arms)

Full forecast

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