June 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 May 2010
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UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action
The UNDOF mandate expires on 30 June. It was established in May 1974 to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Following its usual practice, the Council is expected to extend the mandate for six months and call upon Israel and Syria to implement resolution 338.

A presidential statement is also expected, as has been the practice since 1976, drawing attention to the wider issues in the region and noting that the situation in the Middle East will remain tense until a comprehensive settlement is reached.

The Secretary-General’s report is due 15 June and may be followed by a briefing in consultations. A meeting with troop-contributing countries is also expected.

Key Recent Developments
The December 2009 Secretary-General’s report on the UN Disengagement Force (UNDOF) noted that the ceasefire had been maintained and that the area of operation had remained generally quiet. The Secretary-General encouraged Israel and Syria to resume indirect peace talks under the auspices of Turkey. (These were postponed after Israeli incursions into Gaza in December 2008.)

The June report is not expected to reveal any significant changes. However, it will likely mention UNDOF’s enhanced civil affairs capacity to work with the growing civilian Syrian population in the area of separation. A May 2009 technical review of the mission also addressed this development with a suggestion to increase patrols to minimise any possible encounters between the Israeli Defence Forces and civilian population.

On 12 May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had no intention of attacking Syria. This message came after Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s comment that same day naming Syria as part of the “new axis of evil” and amid Israeli concerns over the alleged Syrian transfer of scud missiles to Hezbollah in April.

On 10 May, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Damascus. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that Medvedev transmitted a message that Israel would cede the Golan if Syria cut ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Netanyahu did not comment on Assad’s remark. (In December 2009, a bill was tabled in the Israeli Knesset requiring a public referendum before withdrawal from the Golan. Syria called this a serious threat to any Israel-Syria peace track.)

On 8 May, Assad and Turkish President Abdullah Gül said that Syria was ready to resume talks with Israel where they left off (i.e. at the end of 2008). Netanyahu’s position remained unchanged—Israel would only negotiate without preconditions. Syria believes that some prior understandings are required.

In early May the US renewed economic sanctions against Syria for another year. They have been in place since 2004.

On 14 April, the US Foreign Relations Committee approved Robert Ford’s nomination as ambassador-designate to Syria; the appointment still requires confirmation by the US Senate. Ford has identified Syria’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah and its ties with Iran as key concerns and said, “We must see whether the Syrians are truly interested in negotiating that peace agreement with Israel.”

Human Rights-Related Developments
On 24 March the Human Rights Council adopted a resolution calling on Israel to allow the Syrian population in the occupied Syrian Golan to visit their families and relatives in Syria (the vote was 31 for, one against (US) and 15 abstentions). Israel’s decision to prohibit such visits was described as a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. (A/HRC/RES/13/5)

Key Issues
An issue for the Council is whether to be more proactive in encouraging Syria and Israel to resume peace talks or simply continue the practice of renewing UNDOF’s mandate with the associated statement.

Another possible issue is whether to adjust the timing of the mandate renewal from six to 12 months. A further issue is more robust reporting from the Secretariat (bearing in mind limitations of the UNDOF mandate and sensitivities in the region).

Options
The most likely option is a simple rollover of UNDOF’s mandate.

Other options include using the mandate renewal to give impetus to the peace process by formally encouraging the renewal of a Syria-Israel peace track.

Council Dynamics
There is consensus that UNDOF remains useful in the absence of a peace agreement between Israel and Syria. France, Turkey, Russia and the US are key players. Austria and Japan are troop-contributors to UNDOF.

It seems, however, that few if any Council members are interested in departing significantly from the standard of past renewal practices. Some seem interested in a one-year mandate period to ease the work burden of the Council. Others are sensitive, however, to a Syrian desire to keep the mandate under review every six months so as to not deemphasise the Israel-Syria track. Council members that contribute troops to UNDOF seem to attach importance to the comfort of all parties with the timing and mandate of the mission.

There appears to be no commonly agreed lead country in the Council on this issue.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • =S/RES/1899= (16 December 2009) renewed UNDOF until 30 June 2010.
  • S/RES/350 (31 May 1974) established UNDOF.
  • S/RES/338 (22 October 1973) called for a ceasefire and comprehensive peace.
  • S/RES/242 (22 November 1967) called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories.

Other

  • A/HRC/13/5 (24 March 2010) was the Human Rights Council resolution calling on Israel to allow the Syrian population in the occupied Golan to visit Syria.
  • S/2010/56 (1 February 2010) and S/2010/55 (28 January 2010) was an exchange of letters regarding the appointment of Major-General Natalio C. Ecarma of the Philippines as the UNDOF force commander.
  • S/2010/4 (5 January 2010) was a letter from Syria regarding Israeli violations in the Golan Heights.
  • =S/PRST/2009/34= (16 December 2009) was the last statement following the renewal of UNDOF.
  • =S/PV.6241= (16 December 2009) was the meeting record of the last UNDOF renewal.
  • S/2009/597 (18 November 2009) was the last UNDOF report.

Other Relevant Facts

UNDOF Force Commander

Major-General Natalio C. Ecarma (Philippines)

Size and Composition of Mission (28 February 2010)

Size: 1,044 troops, assisted 76 military observers of UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan, supported by 39 international civilian personnel and 104 local civilian staff

Troop contributors: Austria, Canada, Croatia, India, Japan and the Philippines

Approved Budget

1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: $45.03 million (A/C.5/64/15)

Full forecast

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