June 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 May 2010
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
ASIA

DPRK (North Korea)

Expected Council Action
The Council is likely to extend the mandate of the Panel of Experts that assists the DPRK Sanctions Committee in June.

Background
On 12 June 2009 the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1874 in response to the 25 May 2009 underground nuclear test by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The resolution expanded existing sanctions and established a Panel of Experts for an initial period of one year. The panel assists the 1718 Committee in carrying out its mandate and makes recommendations to improve implementation of the sanctions regime. Resolution 1874 does not name a date for expiry of the mandate. But “one year” from resolution 1874 would be 12 June 2010. The Panel was appointed by the Secretary-General on 12 August 2009.

Key Issues
A key issue is whether the Panel of Experts has proven useful in assisting the 1718 Sanctions Committee in its work and if an extension of the panel’s mandate is desirable.

Options
Options for the Council include:

  • extending the existing mandate of the Panel of Experts for another 12 months or longer;
  • revising the panel’s role or activities in response to recommendations received by the panel itself; or
  • allowing the mandate to expire (an unlikely option).

Council and Wider Dynamics
Council members appear broadly supportive of renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts. The panel is viewed as playing an overall positive role that is helpful to the committee.

Most members seem to anticipate that discussion of the recommendations made in the panel’s report with regard to improving the overall effectiveness of the sanctions regime will need some time to digest. Consideration of revising the panel’s mandate is therefore seen as unlikely at this time.

However, it is unclear whether recent results of the investigation into the 26 March sinking of the Cheonan will influence discussion of this issue (see our June 2010 brief, Naval Incident in the Yellow Sea).

Sign up for SCR emails
UN Documents

Selected Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1887 (24 September 2009) reaffirmed that nuclear proliferation is a threat to international peace and security.
  • S/RES/1874 (12 June 2009) condemned the DPRK’s 25 May underground nuclear test, expanded the arms embargo, authorised inspection of cargoes to and from the DPRK, as well as vessels on the high seas and established a Panel of Experts.
  • S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) expressed grave concern over the DPRK’s nuclear test, imposed sanctions and set up a sanctions committee.
  • S/RES/1695 (15 July 2006) condemned the DPRK’s launch of ballistic missiles.
  • S/RES/825 (11 May 1993) called on the DPRK to reconsider withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and to honour its non-proliferation obligations under the NPT.

Selected Presidential Statement
  • S/PRST/2009/7 (13 April 2009) condemned the 5 April launch of a rocket by the DPRK, saying it was in contravention of resolution 1718.

Latest Sanctions Committee Annual Report

Selected Letters
  • S/2009/416 (12 August 2009) was a letter from the Secretary-General informing the Council about the appointment of a Panel of Experts.
  • S/2009/364 (16 July 2009) was a letter from the sanctions committee designating additional entities and materials, as well as individuals subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/222 (24 April 2009) was a letter from the sanctions committee designating new entities and materials subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/205 (14 April 2009) was a letter from the sanctions committee updating items, equipment, goods and technology prohibited from being imported or exported by the DPRK.


Other Relevant Facts

Chairman of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1718 (2006)
  • Ertuğrul Apakan (Turkey)


Useful Additional Sources
Lee Sanghee, Thoughts on an “Initiative Strategy” for the Comprehensive Management of North Korea, The Brookings Institution, April 2010.

Full forecast

Subscribe to receive SCR publications