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AFRICA

Côte d’Ivoire

Expected Council Action
In June the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UNOCI. Some adjustments to the mandate are also likely in view of the Secretary-General’s 20 May report.

The operation’s head, Choi Young-jin, is expected to brief the Council.

Key Recent Developments
On 27 May the Council approved a one month technical rollover of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) mandate (S/RES/1924).

No date for the presidential elections (which have now been postponed six times) has yet been set.

On 20 May the Secretary-General provided his report to the Council. According to the report, all key players in Côte d’Ivoire believe that the UNOCI should not be withdrawn until the current mandate to assist with the following is complete:

• the disarmament process;
• the restoration of state authority;
• the reunification of the economy;
• the preparation of the final voters list; and
• the holding of elections.

The Secretary-General recommended, in light of the feedback, that UNOCI’s current overall strength should be maintained until the end of the year, but he recommended rebalancing the military and police components by using existing spare capacity in the military component to add fifty police officers in light of a possible increase in civil disturbances and protection demands. He also recommended that UNOCI’s mandate be adjusted to focus on assisting the parties to implement the remaining tasks related to disarmament, as well as all aspects of the reunification of the country and elections and encouraged the Council to impose targeted sanctions against media institutions found to be fanning political tensions and inciting violence.

On 4 May the Director of the Africa II Division in the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Raisedon Zenenga, briefed Council experts in a closed session on the outcomes of the 12-22 April technical assessment mission to Côte d’Ivoire. Council members were reportedly briefed on political developments and were told the situation remained volatile.

On 17 May the independent electoral commission began vetting the disputed voter registration list. The eligibility of some 1.03 million voters (out of some 6.4 million names on the provisional voter list) is being disputed by the president’s party on grounds of nationality. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General has certified 5.3 million voters registered on the provisional voter list. The president’s party is now calling for a complete re-examination of all voters. Despite reaching an earlier understanding to conduct elections before disarmament and reunification of the country was complete, President Laurent Gbagbo is now calling for disarmament and reunification before elections (as was previously envisaged in the fourth supplementary agreement to the Ougadougou Agreement).

On 10 May, Gbagbo met Henri Konan Bédié, president of the opposition political party, the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI). The two reportedly discussed the organisation of the presidential elections and reunification. On 17 May, Gbagbo met Alassane Ouattara, the leader of Côte d’Ivoire’s other main opposition party, the Rally of the Republicans (RDR). Following the 10 May meeting, the Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace, a coalition of four opposition parties including PDCI and RDR, postponed demonstrations that had been planned for 15 May and were aimed at forcing the government to set a date for elections.

Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is fine tuning the mandate of UNOCI to respond to the current situation. A related issue is whether the Council can also generate momentum in implementing the key elements of the peace process, specifically elections, disarmament and reunification.

A further issue, in light of the delayed elections, the disrupted momentum of key steps in the peace process and the uncertain security situation is the increase of incendiary political rhetoric—often with an ethnic dimension.

A related issue is that, as tensions grow over the unresolved issues surrounding the elections and reunification, a key concern highlighted by the Group of Experts but not yet addressed is the escalation of demand for arms and related materiel either among the two parties to the conflict or the civilian population more generally.

Underlying Issues
In addition to holding elections, a number of other critical tasks outlined in the Ouagadougou Agreements remain unfulfilled. The process to disarm former combatants of the Forces Nouvelles and the dismantling of militias remains to be fully completed and the state has not yet been able to effectively extend its administration throughout the country.

Options
Options for the Council include:

• a further short rollover of the mission authorisation to allow further time for discussion;
• renewing the mandate of UNOCI for the standard six months;
• fine tuning the mandate by synthesising UNOCI’s mandate as defined in resolution 1739 of 10 January 2007 with the subsequent Secretary-General’s recommendations in his May 2007 report, which further defined UNOCI’s role;
• in light of the continuing delays in disarmament and reunification activities and in the holding of elections, prioritising UNOCI’s mandate to focus on restoring a civilian policing presence throughout Côte d’Ivoire to maintain security, monitoring the arms embargo and reporting on human rights abuses;
• addressing some of the big underlying political issues, and to this end, sending a small mission to visit Côte d’Ivoire;
• requesting the Sanction Committee’s Group of Experts to produce a list of individuals and organisations obstructing the peace process or inciting violence, for consideration for targeted sanctions; and
• encouraging the Secretary-General to send his Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide to the country, individually or as part of a high-level team, in view of the facts that the issue of national identity lies at the core of the unrest in Côte d’Ivoire and that former belligerent parties are reportedly rearming.

Council Dynamics
Council members continue to be frustrated with the repeated delays in holding elections. Members had hoped in January that renewing UNOCI’s mandate for a shorter period of four months would signal a need for elections to be conducted before June. Some are questioning whether it is time for a stronger diplomatic effort to put pressure on the Ivorian authorities to advance the political process.

Some Council members would like to commence a draw-down of UNOCI and had hoped the Secretary-General’s May report would provide a basis on which to begin UNOCI’s withdrawal. However, it seems that fears of a return to violence will ensure UNOCI force levels are maintained for at least the next mandate period.

Increasing the list of individuals for targeted sanctions, particularly those obstructing the electoral process, remains an attractive tool for some Council members. However, the Secretary-General has advised against such an action in his May report. Instead the Secretary-General recommended the Council impose targeted sanctions against media institutions found to be inciting violence.

Côte d’Ivoire seems to be pressing for France to give up the lead role in the Council on Côte d’Ivoire issues. This seems unlikely to happen.

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

Full forecast

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