June 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 May 2010
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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of UNFICYP for another six months before it expires on 15 June. The Secretary-General’s regular UNFICYP report is due by 1 June. A separate report on the good offices mission conducted by Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus Alexander Downer was issued on 11 May.

Council members are expected to hold informal consultations and hear a briefing by Downer. Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy will most likely brief on the UNFICYP report. The position of Special Representative for Cyprus is currently vacant following the appointment on 28 April of the former Representative, Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, as Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs.

Key Recent Developments
On 18 April, Derviş Eroğlu was elected president by Turkish Cypriots voting in northern Cyprus, defeating Mehmet Ali Talat, the Turkish Cypriot leader who had been engaged in UN facilitated reunification talks with the Greek Cypriot president Demetris Christofias since September 2008.

Eroğlu is a nationalist leader who in the past has favoured partition of the island into two independent states and opposed the idea of a “bizonal, bicommunal federation,” the basis on which the reunification talks have been proceeding.

In the months leading up to the elections, the talks between Talat and Christofias had intensified. In a 30 March joint statement following the last meeting of the two leaders before the elections, they said they were encouraged by the “important progress” made so far on governance and power sharing, EU matters and the economy and were convinced that agreement could be reached. (Negotiations had focused on seven chapters, which also included property issues; division of territory; security arrangements and guarantees; and citizenship, immigration and asylum issues.)

Before the elections Talat warned that the talks might collapse if Eroğlu was elected. Others also predicted that Eroğlu’s victory would have a negative impact on reunification prospects. The Greek Cypriots said Eroğlu’s election could cause very serious problems for the negotiations.

In his victory speech, however, Eroğlu said he wanted the talks to continue. According to media reports, he also wrote a letter to the Secretary-General on 23 April confirming his willingness to engage in negotiations under UN auspices. But it was unclear on what basis he wanted to proceed. (The letter reportedly omitted any reference to the term “federation.”)

The Greek Cypriots also wrote a letter to the Secretary-General and to the P5 and the EU, expressing their commitment to continue the talks from the point where they were suspended before the elections.

Turkey, which had supported Talat, said after the elections that Turkish Cypriots must continue reunification talks and that a solution should be found by the end of 2010.

At the end of April, Downer visited New York to consult with UN officials. He also met with interested delegations, including the P5. In a press conference on 27 April he stressed that the UN believed the negotiation process should continue on the basis of what had taken place so far. He also underlined that the process was not indefinite and needed to move forward with a certain momentum.

On 3 May, Downer met with Eroğlu. He said after the meeting that he had made clear the UN position that talks must continue on the basis of “UN parameters” as defined by Council resolutions and previous agreements between Christofias and Talat, and must also build on “convergences” already achieved. Downer also met with Christofias on 4 May. Following these meetings, Downer said both sides seemed ready to resume negotiations at the end of May starting from where they left off before the elections.

The reunification talks officially resumed on 26 May and started with discussions of the property issue. At press time, the next meeting between Christofias and Eroğlu was scheduled for 3 June.

Human Rights-Related Developments
On 17 March the Human Rights Council (HRC) adopted without a vote the report of the HRC’s Working Group that conducted the Universal Periodic Review of Cyprus. The group made seventy recommendations, almost all of which Cyprus accepted. The exceptions were several recommendations on migrant workers, on which Cyprus expressed the need for further consideration “arising from the fact that the Council of the EU has competency over measures on immigration.” The report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on the question of human rights in Cyprus was presented to the HRC on 24 March. The report focused on the degree of implementation of several judgements of the European Court of Human Rights, noting some progress in cases requiring that property be compensated for, restored or exchanged.

Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is the likely impact on the reunification talks of the recent change in Turkish Cypriot leadership.

Another related issue is the need to renew the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) mandate and whether it is appropriate at this time to begin discussions of an exit strategy for the mission or a further drawdown in the broader context of Council efforts to overhaul peacekeeping activities. (In his November report the Secretary-General observed in response to a Council request for contingency planning that it was too early to identify the parameters for UN involvement following a settlement. In its last UNFICYP resolution, however, the Council reiterated its request for contingency planning.)

A further issue is whether Downer’s warning that the timeline for the talks is not indefinite needs to be reinforced.

The lack of progress on confidence-building measures remains an issue.

An underlying issue is the isolation of northern Cyprus. (A European Commission proposal for direct trade regulation between the EU and northern Cyprus has met with strong opposition from Cyprus.)

Options
One option for the Council in June is a resolution simply renewing UNFICYP’s mandate without change for a further six months.

Another option is to add new language welcoming the resumption of talks and calling on the parties to continue negotiations on the basis of what had already been achieved prior to the suspension of talks on 30 March and in accordance with UN parameters (as referred to by Downer).

A further option is for the Council to signal that the talks cannot go on forever.

Finally, the Council could indicate that it is serious in seeking an exit strategy for UNFICYP.

Council and Wider Dynamics
The recent change in Turkish-Cypriot leadership has created a new level of uncertainty about the way forward. There is therefore likely to be increased interest in the Cyprus issue. At press time, Council members seemed to be in a wait-and-see mode as the impact of the new leadership was still unclear. They are waiting to hear Downer’s assessment of the prospects for the talks following his recent contacts with the leaders.

Although Eroğlu seems to have indicated his willingness to continue talks on the basis of what has already been achieved, there seems to be some scepticism among Council members about how this will actually play out once the negotiations resume.

UNFICYP’s mandate renewal is normally discussed among the P5 before a draft resolution is presented to the Council. All members seem sensitive to the fact that this renewal is happening at a particularly sensitive moment. They may therefore be cautious about pushing controversial issues.

As it did in May and December 2009, Turkey is expected to vote against UNFICYP’s mandate renewal. However, key Council members seem to value the overall role played by Turkey since the election of Eroğlu.

The UK is the lead country in the Council on Cyprus.

Selected

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UN Documents

Latest Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1898 (14 December 2009) renewed UNFICYP’s mandate until 15 June, welcomed progress in the negotiations, urged the parties to intensify their efforts and requested a report from the Secretary-General by 1 June 2010.
  • S/RES/186 (4 March 1964) established UNFICYP.

Latest Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2009/10 (30 April 2009) welcomed progress in the negotiations, urged the parties to increase the momentum and looked forward to decisive progress in the near future.

Latest Reports from the Secretary-General

  • S/2010/238 (11 May 2010) was the latest report on the good offices mission in Cyprus.
  • S/2009/610 (30 November 2009) was the first separate report on the good offices mission.
  • S/2009/609 (25 November 2009) was the latest report on UNFICYP.

Other

  • S/2010/227 (29 April 2010), S/2010/114 (26 February 2010) and S/2010/60 (30 December 2009) were letters from Turkey to the Secretary-General transmitting letters from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus refuting Cyprus’s allegations of violations of international air traffic regulations and national airspace of Cyprus.
  • S/2010/196 (15 April 2010), S/2010/92 (17 February 2010) and S/2009/668 (18 December 2009) were letters from Cyprus to the Secretary-General drawing attention to alleged violations of the international air traffic regulations and national airspace of Cyprus by Turkish military aircraft.
  • S/PV.6239 (14 December 2009) was the meeting record of the Council’s adoption of resolution 1898 with Turkey’s explanation of vote.


Other Relevant Facts

Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus

Alexander Downer (Australia)

Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Head of Mission and Deputy Special Adviser

Vacant

Force Commander

Rear Admiral Mario César Sánchez Debernardi (Peru)

Size and Cost of Mission (as of 28 February 2010)

  • Strength: 919 total uniformed personnel, including 850 troops and 69 police
  • Budget: 1 July 2009 to 30 June 2010: $54.41 million (including voluntary contributions of one-third from Cyprus and $6.5 million from Greece)

Full forecast

 

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