June 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 26 May 2006
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AFRICA

Burundi

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to extend the mandate of the United Nations Mission in Burundi (ONUB) until 31 December.

The Secretary-General’s proposal for an integrated UN office in Burundi to follow on from ONUB in 2007, covering security-sector reforms and human rights as well as transitional government, will also be discussed in light of the Secretary-General’s report on ONUB, which is due 15 June. In this context, some discussion of a possible Peacebuilding Commission role is likely.

It seems that the Council may also have a progress report of the joint UN-Burundi government committee which was set up to plan how the UN can help Burundi after the mandate of ONUB expires.  UNDP Assistant Administrator Gilbert Fossoun Hungbo reportedly had successful meetings in Bujumbura on this in late May.

The Council will also discuss extending the redeployment of civilian and military personnel between ONUB and the United Nations Organization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) until 31 December.

The outstanding issue of the framework for a truth and reconciliation commission and a special chamber to try serious human rights violations is unlikely to be discussed because the Secretariat will be not be ready to report to the Council in June with negotiations still underway.

Options
One option is to agree now on a mandate for an integrated office to commence on 1 January 2007. 

A second option is to signal an intention to keep under review the possible extension of ONUB if the security situation deteriorates.  However, this is unlikely given the Burundian government’s desire for ONUB’s disengagement and pressure from some Council members to reduce the size of the mission.

A third option is to delay a decision on the integrated office until closer to the end of the year, thereby implicitly keeping open the possibility of a wider review.

Key Issues
The main issue is whether to take an early decision on the proposal for an integrated office. Early approval of the structure would allow for a smooth transition from peacekeeping to peacebuilding.

Related issues are the size, duration, financing and tasks of the new structure, and the potential security risks if the situation in Burundi were to deteriorate.

Another issue is whether ONUB troops should continue to assist MONUC after June.

Given the regional dimension and the security situation in Burundi, it is likely that the Council will want to remain seized of the issue.

For background and a more complete list of documents, please consult our March 2006 Monthly Forecast.

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1669 (10 April 2006) authorised the Secretary-General to redeploy military and civilian personnel temporarily from ONUB to MONUC.
  • S/RES/1650 (21 December 2005) extended ONUB until 1 July 2005 and authorised the sharing of troops between MONUC and ONUB.
 Selected Presidential Statement
  • S/PRST/2006/12 (23 March 2006) approved the recommendations in the Secretary-General’s sixth report.
 Selected Secretary-General’s Reports
  • S/2006/163 (21 March 2006) outlined a drawdown plan for ONUB’s military and civilian personnel.
  • S/2005/728 (21 November 2005) proposed the phased withdrawal of ONUB.
 Selected Letters
  • S/2006/206 (31 March 2006) contained the Secretary-General’s intention to redeploy troops temporarily from ONUB to MONUC.
  • S/2005/736 (23 November 2005) contained Bujumbura’s position on the future of ONUB.

Other Relevant Facts 

 ONUB: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

 To be Appointed; Nureldin Satti is the Acting Special Representative 

 Force Commander

 Major-General Derrick Mbuyiselo Mgwebi (South Africa)

 Size and Composition of Mission
  • Total authorised strength: 5,650 military personnel, including 200 military observers.
  • Strength as of 30 April 2006: about 3,556 uniformed personnel.
  • Key military contributors: Nepal, Pakistan and South Africa.
 Cost
 1 July 2005 – 30 June 2006: $307.69 million (gross)
 Duration

 June 2004 to present

Full forecast