December 2023 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2023
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Status Update since our November Forecast  

Bosnia and Herzegovina  

On 2 November, the Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) (S/PV.9466) and unanimously adopted resolution 2706, renewing the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) until 2 November 2024. There was no briefer. 

“The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” 

On 6 November, Security Council members convened for closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) called for the meeting to discuss the worsening situation in Gaza and Israel’s airstrikes on the Jabalia refugee camp and on a convoy of ambulances near Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths and Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland briefed. 

On 10 November, the Security Council held an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9472). The UAE called for the meeting to discuss the deteriorating situation in Gaza, citing the “spiraling health crisis amidst continued attacks on hospitals”. Director General of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Director General of the Palestine Red Crescent Society Marwan Jilani briefed. 

On 15 November, the Security Council adopted resolution 2712 with 12 votes in favour and three abstentions (Russia, the UK, and the US). The resolution calls for “extended humanitarian pauses and corridors” in the Gaza Strip for “a sufficient number of days” to enable unhindered humanitarian access to facilitate the provision of “essential goods and services important to the well-being of civilians, especially children”. Resolution 2712 also calls for the release of “all hostages held by Hamas and other groups, especially children”. 

On 22 November, the Security Council convened for an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9484). Malta and the UAE requested the meeting, citing “the deeply concerning developments in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and the severe impact on women and children”. UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, and UN Population Fund (UNFPA) Executive Director Natalia Kanem briefed. 

On 27 November, Council members held a private meeting on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, which was requested by Russia. Director of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Representative Office in New York Gréta Gunnarsdóttir and OCHA Head in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham briefed. During the meeting, representatives of Egypt and Qatar provided an update on developments related to the pause in the fighting between Israel and Hamas. 

On 29 November, the Security Council convened for a ministerial-level briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi chaired the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres and Wennesland briefed. 

Arria-formula Meeting on “Combating Forced Separation and Illegal Exploitation of Children” 

On 10 November, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “Combating forced separation and illegal exploitation of children”. The meeting featured briefings by Mira Terada, Director of the Foundation to Battle Injustice; Arun Dohle, Director of Against Child Trafficking; and Sonja van den Ende, a journalist from the Netherlands.  

Sudan/South Sudan  

On 14 November, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2708, renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) for another year, until 15 November 2024. The resolution also extended for one year the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM).  

Elections to the International Court of Justice  

On 9 November, the Security Council and the General Assembly re-elected one judge who is currently serving on the bench of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Hilary Charlesworth (Australia). Another judge currently on the bench, Kirill Gevorgian (Russia), was not re-elected. Four new judges were also elected: Bogdan-Lucian Aurescu (Romania); Sarah Hull Cleveland (United States); Juan Manuel Gómez Robledo Verduzco (Mexico); and Dire Tladi (South Africa). Three other candidates were unsuccessful: Chaloka Beyani (Zambia); Ahmed Amin Fathalla (Egypt); and Antoine Kesia-Mbe Mindua (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The Security Council went through five rounds of voting (S/PV.9471), while the General Assembly needed only one round. To be elected, candidates must secure an absolute majority in the Security Council (8 votes) and the General Assembly (97 votes).  

Counter-Terrorism 

On 15 November, the Council convened for the annual open briefing on the work of its counter-terrorism-related committees (S/PV.9478). The briefers were Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee; Ambassador Lana Nusseibeh (United Arab Emirates), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC); and Ambassador Andrés Montalvo Sosa (Ecuador), chair of the 1540 Committee. Nusseibeh delivered a joint briefing on behalf of the three chairs, which was followed by a briefing from each chair on the work of their respective committees. 

UN Peacekeeping 

On 14 November, the Security Council held its annual briefing with the heads of police components of UN peace operations (S/PV.9475). The focus of the discussion was on how the UN Police (UNPOL) can contribute to the implementation of the recommendations in A New Agenda for Peace, a policy brief released in July outlining the Secretary-General’s vision for the UN’s work on peace and security in a changing world. The briefers were: Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; Police Commissioner of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) Christophe Bizimungu; Police Commissioner of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Christine Fossen; UN Police Adviser Faisal Shahkar; and the Executive Director of Security Council Report, Karin Landgren. 

Central African Republic  

On 15 November, the Security Council adopted resolution 2709, renewing the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2024 (S/PV.9476). Fourteen members voted in favour and one member abstained (Russia). In its explanation of vote, Russia said that “the text continues to include obsolete elements that no longer reflect the situation in the Central African Republic”. Russia expressed disappointment that the text did not include the contribution of bilateral partners, seemingly in reference to the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian private security company, “as part of the country’s stabilization”.   

Somalia  

On 15 November, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2710, extending the authorisation of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) until 30 June 2024. The resolution also authorised the extension of the drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS personnel until 31 December. On the same day, the Security Council also unanimously adopted resolution 2711, a short technical rollover of the 751 Al-Shabaab sanctions regime until 1 December, to allow time for further deliberations on its renewal.  

Sudan  

On 16 November, the Security Council convened for an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) (S/PV.9480). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report (S/2023/861), which was circulated to Council members on 10 November and covered developments from 21 August to 31 October. Director of OCHA’s Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu also briefed Council members in the closed consultations. 

On 16 November, Sudan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Al-Harith Idriss Al-Harith Mohamed, sent a letter to the Secretary-General conveying the Sudanese government’s decision to terminate the mandate of UNITAMS with immediate effect. The letter said that, in the context of the current situation in the country, the mission no longer meets the aspirations of the Sudanese people and government. The letter further stated that Sudan is willing to engage with the Council and the UN Secretariat on a “new, appropriate and agreed upon formula”. In this regard, the letter added that General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the chairperson of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council and the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, has appointed an envoy to lead a high-level delegation to engage on the matter with the members of the Security Council and the UN Secretariat. 

Promoting Sustainable Peace through Common Development  

On 20 November, the Security Council held an open debate on promoting sustainable peace through common development under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9482 and Resumption 1). This was the signature event of China’s Council presidency. The briefers were: UN Secretary-General António Guterres; Dilma Rousseff, the President of the New Development Bank and former President of Brazil; and Professor Jeffrey Sachs, President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network—a non-profit established by the UN to promote implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at national and international levels—and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University.  

Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force  

On 21 November, Security Council members held their biannual meeting on Group of Five for the Sahel Joint Force (FC-G5S) in closed consultations. Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee briefed. Ahead of the meeting, the Secretary-General recommended that the Council end the Secretariat’s reporting obligations on the FC-G5S in a 10 November letter that provided an update on recent developments regarding the force. 

Lebanon  

On 22 November, Security Council members received a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report (S/2023/879) on the implementation of resolution 1701. (Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a group Hezbollah and Israel.) Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed. Council members apparently considered issuing press elements following the meeting. However, consensus could not be achieved. 

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 27 November, the Council convened for an open briefing on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) (S/PV.9485). Albania, Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the UK, and the US requested the meeting after the DPRK claimed that it had successfully launched a military reconnaissance satellite on 21 November. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. The DPRK and the Republic of Korea (ROK) participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

On 30 November, the Chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), briefed Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report on the committee’s work. 

 

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