December 2023 Monthly Forecast

• Overview    

  In December, Ecuador will hold the presidency of the Security Council.     Read more

• In Hindsight: UN Security Council Sanctions  

  The sanctions divide is particularly stark between Western countries, on the one hand, and China, Russia, and African countries, on the other. Western countries often maintain that arms embargoes and targeted sanctions, such as assets freezes and travel bans, are vital tools in mitigating violence and supporting the implementation of peace agreements. While China, Russia, and the Council’s African members recognise that sanctions can be a useful tool of the Council, they point to countries that remain under Council sanctions for several years as evidence that sanctions are insufficiently adjusted to account for progress. Read more

• Status Update since our November Forecast  

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In December, the Security Council will convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva; Ambassador Hernán Pérez Loose (Ecuador), the Chair of the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee; and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. Closed consultations are expected to follow the briefing. In addition, the Council is scheduled to renew the mandate of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee. Under resolution 2615, the Council is also scheduled to receive a briefing on the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. Read more

• Transnational Organised Crime

  In December, the Security Council plans to convene an open debate on “Transnational organised crime, growing challenges and new threats” under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item. Read more

• Iraq (UNITAD)

  In December, the Council will receive the biannual briefing from the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL in Iraq (UNITAD). Special Adviser and head of UNITAD Christian Ritscher is expected to brief the Council.  Read more

• Ukraine

  In December, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In December, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The anticipated briefer is the Special Representative and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), Bintou Keita. Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In December, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). The president of the IRMCT, Judge Graciela Gatti Santana, and the Chief Prosecutor of the IRMCT, Serge Brammertz, are expected to brief during the debate and to meet with the Informal Working Group on Tribunals prior to that. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In December, the Security Council is expected to extend the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Ahead of the mandate renewal, a representative of the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due on 1 December, and the most recent developments. Read more

• Yemen

  In December, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen, followed by closed consultations. UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg and a representative of OCHA will brief. The head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, is expected to brief during the consultations. Read more

• UNOCA (Central Africa) 

  In December, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Read more

• South Sudan

  In December, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan, which members expect to receive by 8 December.  Ambassador Michel Xavier Biang (Gabon), chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to brief on the committee’s work. Consultations will follow the briefing. Read more

• Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies

  As is customary in December, the outgoing chairs of the Council’s subsidiary bodies are expected to provide a briefing on their experiences. Read more

• Small Arms and Light Weapons

  In December, the Security Council will hold an open debate on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW). The meeting will take place based on the Secretary-General’s biennial report on SALW pursuant to resolution 2220 of 22 May 2015. Ecuador is expected to circulate a concept note to help guide the debate. Read more

• Libya

  In December, the Security Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya. Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Abdoulaye Bathily will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNSMIL.   Read more

• Iran

  In December, the Council is expected to convene a briefing on the Secretary-General’s biannual report on the implementation of resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme.  Read more

• Syria

  In December, the Security Council is expected to hold a meeting on the political process and the humanitarian situation in Syria. Read more