December 2023 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 November 2023
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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action

In December, the Security Council will convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva; Ambassador José de la Gasca (Ecuador), the Chair of the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee; and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. Closed consultations are expected to follow the briefing.

In addition, the Council is scheduled to renew the mandate of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee. Under resolution 2615, the Council is also scheduled to receive a briefing on the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan.

UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2024.

Key Recent Developments

Afghanistan continues to face a series of overlapping crises, with the humanitarian situation in the country remaining particularly bleak. According to the World Food Programme (WFP) Afghanistan Situation Report for October, 29.2 million people—over 70 percent of Afghanistan’s population—require multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance in 2023.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan was compounded in mid-October when four 6.3-magnitude earthquakes struck Herat province in a span of eight days, killing and injuring thousands of people and causing widespread destruction. OCHA’s Revised Herat Earthquake Response Plan, which was published on 16 November, said that more than 275,000 people were directly affected by the earthquakes, with “10,002 houses completely destroyed, 220,430 houses severely damaged, and 17,588 houses moderately damaged”. The plan, which called for $173 million in funding to deliver life-saving response activities and support early recovery efforts over the next six months, also noted that the earthquakes impacted vulnerable communities “already grappling with decades of conflict and under-development”, leaving them with “little resilience to cope with multiple, simultaneous shocks”. In comments reported by Associated Press on 12 October, Afghanistan representative for the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) Jaime Nadal observed that there was a “gender dimension” to the death toll, saying “at that time of day, men were out in the field” and “many men migrate to Iran for work. The women were at home doing the chores and looking after the children. They found themselves trapped under the rubble. There was clearly a gender dimension”.

Humanitarian needs in Afghanistan have also worsened following the Pakistani government’s 3 October announcement that it planned to repatriate all “illegal foreigners” remaining in Pakistan after 1 November, a move widely perceived as targeting the estimated 1.3 million undocumented Afghans living in the country. According to a 17 November report published by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 350,000 people have returned to Afghanistan since the announcement, with the number of people arriving at border crossings “exhausted and in need of emergency assistance” continuing to grow. The report also noted that the sudden return of hundreds of thousands of Afghans shortly before winter “is expected to worsen the country’s already severe humanitarian crisis”. An inter-agency appeal launched by several UN agencies and their humanitarian partners seeks $51.9 million in funding to support the humanitarian response to this development.

Despite the scale of humanitarian needs in Afghanistan, the 2023 Afghanistan Humanitarian Response Plan remains underfunded. At the time of writing, only 39.6 percent of the $3.2 billion required by the plan—an amount which was revised down from $4.6 billion in early June—has been received. OCHA’s latest review of the plan, which covers the period ending 30 September, noted that several streams of humanitarian assistance “face pipeline break risks due to funding gaps” and said the provision of urgent funding is crucial.

On 9 November, Council members received the report of the independent assessment on Afghanistan requested by resolution 2679. In accordance with the resolution, the report provides recommendations for an integrated and coherent approach to addressing the current challenges faced by Afghanistan among relevant actors in the international community. On 28 November, the Council convened for a private meeting on the report. Feridun Sinirlioğlu, the special coordinator of the independent assessment, briefed. (For more, see our What’s in Blue story of 27 November.)

The terrorist threat in Afghanistan remains an ongoing concern, with terrorist attacks continuing to occur in the country, including a 13 October attack that struck the Imam Zaman Mosque in Baghlan province, killing dozens of people and wounding many more. In a 14 October press statement, Council members condemned the attack, which was claimed by ISIL-K, ISIL’s Afghan affiliate.

On 15 September, the Taliban held a ceremony to welcome China’s new ambassador to Afghanistan, Zhao Sheng. According to media reports, the office of Taliban Prime Minister Hasan Akhund subsequently said on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Akhund had “accepted the credentials of the new Chinese ambassador” and expressed hope that the appointment would “elevate the diplomatic relations between the two countries to a higher level”. In a statement regarding Zhao’s appointment, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was the “normal rotation of China’s ambassador to Afghanistan” and “intended to continue advancing dialogue and cooperation”. On 19 October, the Taliban’s acting Commerce Minister, Haji Nooruddin Azizi, told reporters that his administration wants to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative and said that the Taliban planned to send a team to Beijing to discuss the prospect of taking part in the infrastructure project.

On 18 October, Special Representatives and Envoys for Afghanistan from Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, the UK, and the US held a meeting in Rome. A joint statement on Afghanistan was issued following the meeting, which was also attended by special observers from Türkiye, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, the OIC, UNAMA, and UNODC.

On 29 September, the fifth meeting of the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan was held in Kazan. Special representatives and senior officials from China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkmenistan attended the meeting, together with the Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Representatives of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) attended as guests of honour. Participants issued the Kazan Declaration after the meeting.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 24 October, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, presented his report to the General Assembly. The report, which primarily covers developments from February to August 2023, documents the deteriorating human rights situation in Afghanistan, including the “severe and unparalleled attack on women’s and girls’ rights in the country”. In his statement, Bennett stressed that there is currently “a culture of impunity for torture and inhumane treatment in detention centres, as well as for human rights violations against former government officials and military personnel, despite promises being made to the contrary”. He also stressed the need to resume the education of girls beyond the sixth grade and women’s tertiary education, noting that the Taliban have repeatedly said the suspension was “temporary”. Bennett also underscored that “the Taliban’s actions may amount to gender persecution” and said that “systematic discrimination, oppression and segregation of women and girls require further examination of the evolving phenomenon of gender apartheid”.

On 11 October, during its 54th session, the Human Rights Council (HRC) adopted a resolution on Afghanistan without a vote (A/HRC/RES/54/1). Among other matters, the resolution condemns in the strongest possible terms all human rights violations and abuses and violations of international humanitarian law committed in Afghanistan and expresses deep concern at the lack of accountability.

On 12 September, during the interactive dialogue on Afghanistan at the 54th session of the HRC, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated that human rights in Afghanistan are “in a state of collapse”. The High Commissioner observed that the most recent OHCHR report on Afghanistan (A/HRC/54/21) demonstrates the “stripping back of institutional protections of human rights at all levels” in the country and said that the Taliban have perpetuated a “systematic assault” on the rights and freedoms of the Afghan people that particularly targets women and girls and excludes them from most aspects of public and daily life.

Key Issues and Options

Considering how to respond to the report of the independent assessment on Afghanistan requested by resolution 2679 is a priority issue for the Council. Council members could choose to adopt a resolution that endorses the report and operationalises the recommendations outlined in it that require action from the Council.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is a significant issue for the Council. An informal meeting with humanitarian organisations working in Afghanistan could allow Council members to learn more about the problems facing those working to deliver aid in the country, particularly after the Taliban banned women from working for the UN, while also providing an opportunity to consider whether there is anything the Council can do to help manage these challenges.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan, particularly for women and girls, is another major issue. Council members could hold an informal meeting with representatives of UN Women, OHCHR, and civil society to discuss how the Council can exert pressure on the Taliban regarding its practices and policies that restrict human rights.

The Council could also consider reviewing the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime, which, apart from the humanitarian exception established by resolution 2615, has not been updated since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. Such a review could analyse whether the regime is fit for purpose and whether it should be updated in light of current circumstances.

The terrorist threat in Afghanistan is another key concern. The Council could meet with a counter-terrorism expert, which would give members a chance to discuss possible options for bolstering the Council’s effort to manage the threat posed by terrorism in Afghanistan.

Council Dynamics

Although Council members are generally united in their desire to see a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan free from terrorism and ruled by an inclusive government that respects the rights of women and girls, they have been divided over how to achieve this goal. Some members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded states, have argued that the Taliban must adhere to international norms if it wants to obtain international recognition and receive economic and development aid from the international community. Several of these members appear to favour maintaining pressure on the Taliban, particularly regarding its policies and practices that violate the rights of women and girls.

China and Russia, on the other hand, have contended that the international community should provide assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as human rights, and appear to prefer dialogue and engagement with the Taliban over increased pressure.

China and Russia have also called for Afghanistan’s frozen assets to be returned to the country, while other members have said that these assets cannot be transferred to Afghanistan until a properly functioning central bank has been established. These members often express concern that the funds could be used for terrorist purposes. Moreover, China and Russia regularly blame the US and NATO for the problems confronting Afghanistan, while the US and others contend that the Taliban bears primary responsibility for the challenges facing the country.

It remains to be seen how the independent assessment report will affect Council dynamics on the file. While it seems that members are generally supportive of the report and its recommendations, albeit to varying degrees, Council members appear to have questions and concerns about how the recommendations outlined in the report would work in practice. (For more, see our What’s in Blue story of 27 November.)

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN

Security Council Resolutions
27 April 2023S/RES/2681 This resolution condemned the ban on Afghan women working for the UN and called on the Taliban to swiftly reverse the policies and practices that restrict the human rights and fundamental freedoms of women and girls, among other matters.
16 March 2023S/RES/2679 This resolution requested that the Secretary-General conduct and provide an independent assessment on Afghanistan.
16 March 2023S/RES/2678 This resolution extended UNAMA’s mandate until 17 March 2024.

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