Iran
Expected Council Action
In September the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to present its next report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions to the IAEA Board of Governors. It is unclear when the report will be taken up by the Council, but there is some apprehension that the report will be more negative than past ones. Nevertheless, action in September is likely to focus more on bilateral and other events in the margins of the General Assembly and at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh.
The chair of the 1737 Sanctions Committee on Iran is expected to brief the Council in September.
Key Recent Developments
There have been some mixed signals from Iran in recent weeks. On 20 August there were reports from media sources that Iran had permitted IAEA inspectors access to the Arak nuclear facility from which they had previously been barred and increased access to the Natanz nuclear facility. On 18 August there were reports in Iran that Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, had indicated that Iran was prepared to engage in talks with the international community regarding its nuclear programme, as long as no preconditions were set. However, there were clarifications the next day which seem to leave uncertainty about whether this was the case.
The presidential election held in Iran on 12 June was followed by disputes over the final election results. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was awarded over 62 percent of the vote, and his main rival Mir-Hossein Mousavi was said to have received less than 34 percent of the vote. A runoff would have been held if no candidate received over 50 percent of the vote. The outcome sparked mass demonstrations in Tehran, with opposition supporters claiming the election was rigged. Reports suggested more than one million took to the streets of the capital. While demonstrations were initially peaceful, the government’s forceful response triggered widespread problems, with thousands arrested and some deaths. Unrest has continued but on a smaller scale.
The disputed election, and the aftermath, exposed a spectrum of rifts between conservative and more progressive politicians, as well as different conservative elements. On 19 August Ahmadinejad presented his proposed cabinet to the parliament for approval. There were adverse reactions from both conservative and progressive lawmakers. (It is possible that this may have been a factor in Soltanieh’s backtracking on 19 August about readiness for talks.)
On 9 August, US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice condemned what she said were Iran’s “show trials” for demonstrators who had been arrested following the election. However, she said the US offer to begin direct communication with Iran about its nuclear programme still held.
At their summit from 8 to 10 July, G8 leaders deplored the post-election violence in Iran. G8 members also noted that Iran persists in refusing to meet its international obligations with regard to its nuclear programme.
The last IAEA report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions was issued on 5 June. The report said Iran had produced 500 kilograms of low-enriched uranium (LEU) between November 2008 and May 2009. The IAEA also noted that it had verified that 839 kilograms of LEU were produced from the beginning of enrichment activity in February 2007 up to November 2008. This brought the total amount of LEU produced by Iran to 1,339 kilograms. According to nuclear experts, this amount of LEU could theoretically produce sufficient highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a nuclear weapon if it were diverted for further enrichment.
The IAEA report also found that Iran has continued to increase centrifuges, which now number over 7,000. The IAEA reported that as of May, 4,920 of these were being used to enrich uranium. The report also stated that Iran had continued to deny the IAEA access to the IR-40 heavy-water reactor being constructed at Arak, and likewise refuses to supply the IAEA with the design information for another nuclear power plant that is to be built in Darkhovin.
Human Rights-Related Developments
|
On 19 June the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights voiced concerns about human rights violations against demonstrators protesting the outcome of the presidential elections in Iran. On 13 August a group of UN human rights rapporteurs and independent experts expressed concern about allegations of torture against detained protestors and reports of people dying in custody. The High Commissioner and the experts stressed the need for the Iranian authorities to ensure that international and national laws were respected, especially those relating to the freedoms of expression and assembly, as well as freedom from arbitrary arrest and detention. |
Key Issues
A key issue for the Council is whether Iran will soon begin to take steps to commence talks regarding its nuclear programme. There will be difficulties, however, in conducting negotiations effectively until key ministerial positions are confirmed by the parliament. The E3+3 will doubtless find it unsatisfactory if talks are stalled much longer. Under the current E3+3 proposal, which involves a number of preconditions, Iran would have to agree to full cooperation with the IAEA and suspension of its enrichment activities. In return, the E3+3 are offering to reaffirm Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy programme and to suspend discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme in the Council while negotiations are ongoing. The E3+3 are expected to meet on 2 September.
A related issue is that the US says its offer of direct engagement with Iran is not open-ended. If Iran appears to spurn this offer, the US may push for stricter economic sanctions, for example by targeting Iran’s refined oil imports. It is also possible that the US could impose stricter unilateral sanctions.
Another issue that may affect the atmosphere is the high-level Council meeting on 24 September to address nuclear issues. US President Barack Obama will chair this meeting the day after he addresses the UN General Assembly. The intent of the meeting is to discuss nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation generally rather than country-specific issues. However, the question of Iran’s nuclear programme will doubtless be on the minds of participants.
Options
The Iran nuclear issue is unlikely to be taken up by the Council in September.
Council and Broader Dynamics
There is a sense that developments in September will guide the Council as it considers the best way to continue forward with Iran related issues.
The high-level Council meeting on 24 September is expected by some Council members to have some bearing on the Iran issue. All council members welcome that the meeting is intended to discuss nuclear issues in a general sense. However, it is expected that real-life situations such as Iran may feature in some statements made at the 24 September meeting and they will certainly be on the minds of participants.
The recent problems in Iran have clearly complicated the situation, with the president facing domestic vulnerability on both sides of the spectrum and with the supreme religious leader’s authority also being openly questioned. (In any country this level of political uncertainty would be inauspicious for sensitive international negotiations.)
|
Selected Council Resolutions |
|
|
Latest IAEA Report |
|
|
Latest Briefing from the Chairman of the 1737 Sanctions Committee |
|
|
Sanctions Committee Chairman |
|
Yukio Takasu (Japan) |
-
Paul K. Kerr, “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status”, Congressional Research Service, 11 August 2009
-
The Road to 2010 – Addressing the Nuclear Question in the Twenty First Centuryol, UK Cabinet Office, July 2009
