September 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 August 2009
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during August included:

Children and Armed Conflict: The Council adopted on 4 August 2009 a resolution on children and armed conflict. The resolution was cosponsored by ten Council members and 36 UN members at large, indicating a high level of interest in this issue among UN member states (S/RES/1882). This resolution expanded the criteria for the Secretary-General’s “list of shame” in his reports on children and armed conflict beyond the recruitment of children. Killing and maiming of children and/or rape and other sexual violence against children can now be used in identifying state and non-state parties. The Secretary-General’s reports on children and armed conflict in specific situations are based on this list and are considered by the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict. The resolution also called upon parties engaged in killing and maiming and sexual violence against children to prepare action plans outlining steps to stop these crimes and reiterated its call to parties already listed for recruiting children to prepare and implement action plans without further delay. Other areas covered in the resolution included a request for enhanced communication between the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict and relevant Council sanctions committees and reaffirmation of the Council’s intention to take action against persistent violators.

Peacekeeping: On 5 August the Council held an open debate where it heard from General Martin Luther Agwai, Force Commander of the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping, Alain Le Roy and Under-Secretary-General for Field Support Susana Malcorra, as well as representatives from troop and police-contributing countries (S/PV.6178 and resumption 1 and SC/9724). It also adopted a presidential statement on peacekeeping (S/PRST/2009/24). The statement highlighted the Council’s efforts to improve its dialogue with the Secretariat and troop and police-contributing countries. It also identified areas for further reflection such as credible and achievable mandates matched with appropriate resources; better information sharing and management; increased interaction with the Secretariat; earlier and more meaningful engagement with troop and police-contributing; and greater awareness in the Council of the resource and field support implications of its decisions and strategic challenges faced across peacekeeping operations.

Myanmar: On 11 August the Council held consultations to discuss the situation in Myanmar and the implications of Aung San Suu Kyi being sentenced to a further 18 months of house arrest. On 13 August the Council issued a press statement (SC/9731) reaffirming its statements of 11 October 2007, 2 May 2008 and 22 May 2009 on Myanmar and reiterated the importance of the release of all political prisoners. In that context the Council expressed serious concern at the conviction and sentencing of Aung San Suu Kyi. It also noted the decision of the Myanmar government to reduce Aung San Suu Kyi’s sentence from three years of hard labour to 18 months house arrest.

The Middle East: On 19 August the Council heard its monthly briefing on the situation in the Middle East. Assistant Secretary-General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco reported that Israel had eased some movement restrictions in the West Bank and had allowed some fuel and construction shipments into Gaza. However, continued Israeli settlement activity remained a matter of serious concern. Fernandez-Taranco also noted that a violent confrontation had taken place on 14 August inside Gaza. Over one hundred people were injured and 28 deaths resulted from fighting between Hamas and an armed radical group that had criticised Hamas for failing to attack Israel more vigorously and for not imposing strict Sharia law. The confrontation highlighted concerns regarding radicalisation and arms smuggling in Gaza. (S/PV.6182 and SC/9732)

Lebanon: During its 19 August briefing on the situation in the Middle East, the Council heard from Assistant Secretary-General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco that efforts continue in Lebanon to form a new government (S/PV.6182 and SC/9732). The situation in the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) area of operations has been generally quiet, and tensions have eased somewhat around the ongoing investigation of the series of explosions that occurred in southern Lebanon on 14 July. The Council extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year on 27 August (S/RES/1884).

Iraq: On 24 August, the Secretary-General submitted his report on the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) and the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB). On 27 August the Council was briefed by UN Controller, Jun Yamazaki.

On 19 August truck bombings in Baghdad killed nearly one hundred people and wounded over 1,000. The Security Council condemned the attacks, which were carried out on the sixth anniversary of the bombing of the UN offices in the capital. Violence has increased since US troops repositioned outside Iraqi cities at the end of June.

After a meeting on 7 August (S/PV.6179 and SC/9725), the Council unanimously extended the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) for another year (S/RES/1883). On 4 August the Council considered the Secretary-General’s last quarterly report on UNAMI (S/2009/393), and was briefed by Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Iraq and head of UNAMI, Ad Melkert. The UNAMI report covered the period from 2 June to 30 July.

Timor-Leste: On the 10th anniversary of Timor-Leste’s vote for independence in the 1999 referendum, the president of the Council in a statement to the press on 27 August commended the people and government of Timor-Leste on their efforts towards peace, stability and development of the country. The statement also remembered those who had lost their lives in the violence, praised the crucial role played by the UN mission and expressed appreciation for assistance given by the international community.
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