September 2009 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 August 2009
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ASIA

DPRK (North Korea)

Expected Council Action
The Council is unlikely to take the key issues relating to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) nuclear programme in September. However, an interim report is due from the Panel of Experts assisting the Sanctions Committee. The report was requested in resolution 1874, which established the Panel and was adopted on 12 June after the DPRK’s latest missile test. At press time the Committee was considering postponing the submission date to allow sufficient time for preparation by the Panel of Experts, which was only set up on 12 August.

Key Recent Developments
On 4 August the DPRK released the two US journalists convicted of illegally entering DPRK territory. This took place during the visit by former US president Bill Clinton. Clinton’s mission was described by the White House as purely “humanitarian”. It seems he did not convey any official messages from the Obama administration. He did meet DPRK leader Kim Jong-il prior to the release of the journalists. Clinton was reported to have conveyed his personal views to the effect that there was need to ensure that there were no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula. Some analysts believe that this development may have contributed to easing of tensions.

A further sign of a possible desire in DPRK to reduce tensions was the request from Pyongyang to send a high-level delegation to Seoul for the funeral of former Republic of Korea (South Korea) president Kim Dae-jung who died on 18 August. This gesture was reciprocated by the South Korean government which offered to meet with the delegation during its visit to Seoul on 23 August.

On 8 August in the Bay of Bengal Indian authorities detained and inspected a North Korean vessel for nuclear material or fuel, in line with Security Council resolution 1874, which calls for the inspection of vessels on the high seas if they are suspected of carrying such materials. The inspection did not detect any radioactive presence.

On 12 August, following consultations with the 1718 Committee, the Secretary-General informed the president of the Council that he had appointed seven experts to assist the Committee.

On 17 August, the DPRK agreed to reopen its border with South Korea and allow the resumption of tourism and family reunions, following discussions in DPRK between Kim Jong-il and Hyun Jeong-eun, the head of South Korea’s Hyundai group which operates a joint factory in the DPRK. The visit also resulted in the release of a South Korean employee of Hyundai, who had been jailed in the DPRK since March.

The DPRK, however, reacted nervously to joint US-South Korea military drills which began on 17 August. The DPRK threatened to retaliate militarily for any breach of its sovereignty and described the exercises as a “grave threat” to peace and a prelude to an invasion.

On 19 August the former US Ambassador to the UN, Bill Richardson, met with diplomats from the DPRK’s permanent mission to the UN in New Mexico, where he is currently governor. Afterwards, he told the press that tensions had decreased considerably since former US President Clinton visited the country earlier in the month, and that the DPRK felt its release of the two US journalists was an important gesture that should be reciprocated by the US with bilateral talks. Richardson also said that it seemed clear that the DPRK would not return to the six-party talks (involving China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US). Washington has in the past rejected the idea of direct talks, expressing preference for the six-party format. A spokesperson for Richardson indicated that the governor did not engage in negotiations with the DPRK diplomats, nor did he represent the US government. (Richardson has acted in various diplomatic capacities for the US government in the past, including meetings with the DPRK government.)

On 20 August the Council was briefed in informal consultations by the chairman of the 1718 Committee, Fazli Corman of Turkey, on the work of the Committee. He also reportedly told the Council that additional time might be needed by the Panel of Experts to prepare an interim report and indicated that the Committee would hold additional consultations on the matter.

On 25 August South Korea launched its first space rocket (it failed to deliver a satellite into its proper orbit). South Korea indicated that the rocket launch was for peaceful civilian purposes, unlike a similar launch by the DPRK in April which was thought by Council members to be a guise for a missile-related test, which was in violation of resolution 1718. The DPRK’s rocket launch was condemned by the Council and elicited additional sanctions.

From 26 to 28 August officials from the DPRK and South Korea met in the DPRK to discuss the issue of resumption of reunions of families separated by the Korean War more than 55 years ago. Family reunions were stopped by the DPRK in 2008 when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak adopted a policy of stronger pressure towards the DPRK to meet its pledges to end its nuclear program as well as scaling back socioeconomic assistance to the DPRK.

Key Issues
Unless there are new developments of immediate concern for the Council, the main issue in September will be how the DPRK nuclear issue is featured in the margins of the many high-level meetings due to take place in New York and at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh.

At the technical level an issue for the Sanctions Committee is whether and when to designate further additional individuals and entities for the sanctions list. (The Committee indicated in its 16 July letter to the Council that it intended to “continue working on an expedited basis” to identify additional entities and banned goods.)

A related issue for the Council is how Pyongyang is responding to the tightened sanctions regime, given previous threats of military retaliation in the event of imposition of UN sanctions.

A possible issue is whether the 1718 Committee should postpone the report from the Panel given the late appointment of the experts. The Panel’s work entails:

  • assisting the 1718 Committee in carrying out its mandate;
  • gathering, examining and analysing information from states, relevant UN bodies and other interested parties regarding the implementation of the sanctions measures, in particular incidents of noncompliance; and
  • making recommendations on actions the Council, the 1718 Committee or member states, may consider to improve implementation of the sanctions measures (i.e. the embargo related to programmes for arms and weapons of mass destruction, the ban on selected goods including luxury items, the travel ban and assets freeze).

Council Dynamics
There is some willingness among Council members to be flexible about the deadline for the report from the Panel of Experts in light of the limited time that is available to the newly appointed experts. A decision is expected before the 12 September deadline. However, if the Committee does decide to insist on the original deadline, the report may not be as substantive as previously envisaged.

The high-level Council meeting on nuclear disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation, on 24 September, is expected to focus on general issues rather than country-specific ones. However, national statements may give insights on current views on the DPRK issue since it is one of the major non-proliferation situations on the Council agenda.

Ultimately, Council members feel that whether there is any action in September will depend on DPRK’s behaviour. If Pyongyang continues to pursue its recent path of apparent international political engagement, the likelihood of reciprocal responses encouraging a return to the nuclear talks may be increased. Conversely, a relapse into conduct contravening the Council’s sanctions could result in further punitive measures being considered by the Council.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1874 (12 June 2009) condemned the DPRK’s 25 May underground nuclear test, expanded the existing arms embargo and authorised inspection of cargoes to and from the DPRK, as well as vessels on the high seas.
  • S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) expressed grave concern over the DPRK’s nuclear test, imposed sanctions and set up a sanctions committee.

Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2009/7 (13 April 2009) condemned the 5 April launch of a rocket by the DPRK, saying it was in contravention of resolution 1718.
  • S/PRST/2006/41 (6 October 2006) was the statement expressing concern over the DPRK’s declaration that it would conduct a nuclear test.

Sanctions Committee Annual Reports

Selected Letters

  • S/2009/416 (12 August 2009) was the letter from the Secretary-General informing the president of the Council about his appointment of a Panel of Experts for the 1718 Sanctions Committee.
  • S/2009/364 (16 July 2009) was the letter from the Sanctions Committee designating additional entities and materials, as well as individuals subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/222 (24 April 2009) was the letter from the Sanctions Committee designating new entities and materials subject to sanctions.
  • S/2009/205 (14 April 2009) was the letter from the Sanctions Committee updating a list of items, equipment, goods and technology prohibited from being imported or exported by the DPRK.
  • S/2008/547 (11 August 2008) was a letter from the DPRK claiming that the US has been undermining the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (a body supervising the implementation of the 1953 armistice agreement in the Korean War) and has created the nuclear issue in the Korean peninsula by massively supplying South Korea with nuclear weapons.
  • S/2008/435 (3 July 2008) was a letter from the DPRK on the US lifting of major economic sanctions against it.
  • S/2006/481 (4 July 2006) was the letter from Japan requesting a meeting of the Security Council after the DPRK launched a ballistic missile.
  • S/1998/866 (17 September 1998) was the letter from the DPRK with a statement on the action of the Council after the launch of a missile on 31 August 1998.
  • S/1998/865 (16 September 1998) was the letter from the DPRK condemning Japan’s action since the DPRK launched a missile on 31 August 1998.
  • S/1998/835 (4 September 1998) was the letter from Japan informing the Council that the DPRK had launched a missile on 31 August 1998.

Other

  • A/HRC/10/18 (24 February 2009) was the report of the Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in the DPRK.
  • A/C.3/63/L.26 (30 October 2008) was a draft resolution before the General Assembly urging the DPRK to put an end to violations of human rights.

Other Relevant Facts

Acting Chairman of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1718 (2006)

Fazlı Çorman (Turkey)

Panel of Experts

  • Masahiko Asada, Japan (nuclear issues)
  • David J. Birch, the UK (weapons of mass destruction proliferation and coordinator of the Panel)
  • Victor D. Comras, the US (finance)
  • Xiaohong Dang, People’s Republic of China (export control, nuclear items)
  • Erik Marzolf, France (missile technology)
  • Young-wan Song, Republic of Korea (regional issues)
  • Alexander Vilnin, Russian Federation (customs)

 

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