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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action
In late September the Council is expected to have a debate on the Secretary-General’s second quarterly report on developments in Afghanistan. A briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide, is also likely.

The Council will be keenly interested in Eide’s analysis of the 20 August presidential and provincial elections and the post-election scenario. Other areas of interest are the Secretary-General’s plans to strengthen the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the benchmarks requested in resolution 1868 (which on 23 March extended UNAMA’s mandate).The benchmarks will likely focus on broad areas such as institution-building, security, economic and social development and cross-cutting issues. The mandate of UNAMA expires on 23 March 2010.

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mandate expires on 13 October. In the last few years the ISAF renewal was done in September in order to accommodate the German position that a resolution be in place before its parliament consider extending ISAF troop commitments. However, this year the ISAF renewal is likely to be in October as the parliamentary mandate allowing Germany to contribute troops continues until December.

Key Recent Developments
Afghans went to the polls on 20 August to choose a president and members of 34 provincial councils. These elections, organised by the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan were the first Afghan-led elections in thirty years. (The elections in 2004 and 2005 were run by the UN.) On 20 August the Council issued a press statement welcoming the “historic” presidential and provincial elections and condemning the actions of extremist groups who sought to disrupt them. The Secretary-General said that Afghans had demonstrated their desire for stability by voting and congratulated all who had made the polls possible. Eide said that the elections were an achievement for the Afghan people and that there had been less violence than expected.

The security situation in Afghanistan has continued to deteriorate during 2009 with violence at its worst since 2001. Analysts have also highlighted the increasingly sophisticated techniques and growing reach of the insurgency. In July more than seventy foreign soldiers were killed. It was the deadliest month since fighting began. Attacks escalated in the lead-up to the elections. The Taliban had vowed to disrupt the elections. However, they seemed unable to achieve the level of disruption that they had hoped.

On 26 August, the Council issued a press statement condemning in the strongest terms the terrorist attack in Kandahar, which killed more than forty civilians and wounded eighty others on 25 August. The statement underlined the need to bring all those responsible to justice and reiterated the Council’s serious concern at the threats posed by extremist groups to all in Afghanistan.

In early August UNAMA released a report co-authored with the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) which revealed that insecurity had hampered candidates’ ability to campaign by limiting their movement and curbing freedom of expression. These constraints had a serious impact on the preparations for the elections, especially for women.

At the end of June the UK launched a five-week operation known as “Panther’s Claw” in Helmand province, while the US marines launched an assault in lower Helmand river valley on 12 August. Both of these offensives were part of an effort to secure Taliban-dominated areas ahead of the elections.

The Mid Year Bulletin on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict in Afghanistan, prepared by the Human Rights Unit of UNAMA and released on 30 July, reported that civilian casualties increased by 24 percent in the first half of 2009, with 59 percent of the civilians killed by anti-government elements and 30.5 percent by pro-government forces (Afghan government security and foreign troops). However, while the proportion of civilian deaths attributed to pro-government forces has declined since 2007, the actual number of such deaths continues to increase. The report noted that a high priority had been given by pro-government forces to reducing civilian deaths.

On 15 July the Council adopted a presidential statement stressing that it was important for the elections to be free, fair, transparent, credible, secure and inclusive. It also expressed its support for the Secretary-General’s intention to further strengthen UNAMA and invited him to provide further details.

Human Rights-Related Developments

Key Issues
There are several key issues related to the elections whose official results are expected to be announced in mid-September:

• The security situation following the elections: Several scenarios could lead to unrest. If the losers feel that the votes were tainted, protests are possible. A run-off election is possible which would also leave the country in a state of heightened tension till the end of September.
• Credibility and legitimacy of the elections: This may be an issue given the allegations of corruption such as the discovery of fake voter cards and the instances of buying of votes as well as the lower turnout in areas in the south.
• Post-election scenario: A key issue is the future role for UNAMA. Moving on from the divisiveness of the elections developing a broad political consensus and a common strategic vision will be important.

Issues related to UNAMA include:

• Expansion of UNAMA: While there is widespread support in the Council for UNAMA and recognition that expanding its presence to more provinces would be useful, members have yet to agree on how many more offices should be opened. (Currently UNAMA has 20 offices and some would like to see offices in all the 34 provinces.)
• Increased resources and additional funds for UNAMA in 2010: In his June report the Secretary-General flagged the need for more resources and funding. This may be an issue for some members coming soon after the near doubling of UNAMA’s budget last year from $76 million to $168 million.
• Role of benchmarks: It is unclear how much broad benchmarks will help the Council monitor UNAMA’s progress in carrying out its mandate. Also an issue is how to overcome the difficulties of measuring progress in Afghanistan’s complex political environment where UNAMA’s progress is intricately linked to progress by Afghan and other international counterparts.

A long-standing key issue that will come back to the fore after the elections is the need for an inclusive peace process and the role the UN could play this process.

The issue of the increasing number of civilian deaths and what the UN can do independently to monitor and address incidents of civilian casualties is also an open one.

Continuing issues that will be significant after the elections include donor commitments to the Afghan National Development Strategy, strengthening government institutions, fighting corruption and the need for closer regional cooperation.

Options
While no formal action is necessary with respect to UNAMA, one option is a statement which could address various aspects:

• addressing on the official outcome of the 20 August presidential election if there is a clear winner and no run-off is needed (official results are expected on 17 September);
• noting the Secretary-General’s proposed benchmarks and outlining how the Council plans to use them;
• indicating support for the expansion of UNAMA and conveying the Council’s views on this; and
• stressing the importance of UNAMA moving rapidly to focus on the post-election situation.

Council Dynamics
Many Council members are following developments in Afghanistan closely and most members are highly supportive of UNAMA. With the launch of its own comprehensive new strategy on Afghanistan earlier this year, the US views UNAMA as a key partner in its efforts. Elected members Japan and Turkey, which have their own national commitments in Afghanistan, have taken an active interest in the UN’s role in the country. Japan is the lead country on Afghanistan in the Council for 2009, and Turkey will take over this role in 2010.

While there has been general endorsement for UNAMA’s expansion, some members are keen to get a better sense of what this would actually mean in budgetary terms. A large increase may be resisted by a few members who are looking to trim budgets where possible.

Most members appear keen to see the introduction of benchmarks, as requested when UNAMA’s mandate was last renewed. The US is particularly interested in seeing benchmarks introduced for tracking the progress of the implementation of UNAMA. The UK is also strongly supportive as this is in line with the larger peacekeeping review it initiated jointly with France in January this year. Some other members, while favouring greater accountability in principle, are cognisant of the difficulties of trying to measure progress against benchmarks especially in the case of a mission like UNAMA where the UN is not a major player.

Civilian casualties and the increase in security incidents continue to be a concern for a number of members and are likely to be raised during the discussion.

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

Useful Additional Resources

• Afghanistan, Mid Year Bulletin on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, UNAMA Human Rights Unit, July 2009
• AIHRC-UNAMA Joint Monitoring of Political Rights, Presidential and Provincial Council Elections, Second Report, UNAMA, 16 June to 1 August

Full forecast

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