Liberia
Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) and perhaps expand the political role to include electoral support elements as recommended in the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNMIL. It is expected to start discussions and make a decision by 30 September, when UNMIL’s annual mandate expires.
Key Recent Developments
In July Liberian President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf officially ended the national Disarmament, Demobilisation, Rehabilitation and Reintegration programme (DDRR). The DDRR programme disarmed and demobilised 101,000 former combatants and gave integration support to about 90,000 ex-combatants since 2003.
On 28 July Johnson-Sirleaf apologised in a nationwide radio address for her past support of former Liberian President Charles Taylor, currently on trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity in Sierra Leone. Johnson-Sirleaf explained that she had supported Taylor in order to remove former dictator Samuel Kanyon Doe. She stated that “like thousands of other Liberians at home and abroad who did, I have always admitted my early support for Charles Taylor to challenge the brutality of a dictatorship”. Regarding Taylor she said “it was equally clear that when the true nature of Taylor’s intentions became known, there was no more impassioned critic or strong opponent to him in a democratic process. I expressed remorse to the Liberian people for my misjudgement”.
Johnson-Sirleaf’s apology was prompted by tensions arising from the publication of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) “unedited consolidated final report” on 30 June. The report recommended certain punitive measures, including a ban on holding public office, against fifty political leaders and others associated with the former warring factions, including President Johnson-Sirleaf for her support of Taylor’s rebellion against former President Samuel Doe. According to the recommendation, Johnson-Sirleaf would be allowed to finish her term, but not seek re-election. Taylor together with 105 other persons were identified by the TRC as the “most notorious perpetrators” and recommended for prosecution. (For further details please see our August 2009 Forecast.)
On 10 August the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNMIL was circulated to Council members. The report highlighted major developments in Liberia since February, stating that political activities over the last period were dominated by the work of the TRC and described the security situation as generally stable, but fragile with breach of law and order incidents arising.
The report included the findings and recommendations for international assistance needed for the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for 2011 by the joint assessment mission comprising the UN Department of Political Affairs and UN Development Programme, which visited Liberia in May. This included proposals that UNMIL’s mandate be revised to include election-related tasks and to coordinate international electoral assistance. (UNMIL is currently not mandated to provide electoral assistance, but the conduct of free and fair, conflict-free elections has been added to the list of the mission’s core drawdown benchmarks.)
The report also emphasised the ongoing need for all Liberian stakeholders to do more to promote constructive dialogue. The role of the UN in assisting the process was highlighted, along with establishing mechanisms for early warning and dispute resolution, in view of the anticipated emergence of political and social tensions in the heated atmosphere of elections. The report also said that building local capacities should be the primary focus of international electoral assistance, in view of the primary responsibility of Liberian institutions for organising and conducting the 2011 elections, and in order to ensure the sustainability of national capacity to conduct electoral operations.
The Secretary-General agreed with the assessment team’s recommendation for the mandate of UNMIL to be modified to address electoral-assistance tasks. He also reiterated the recommendation from his special report on UNMIL of 10 June on the third stage of the mission’s drawdown from October 2009 to May 2010. (For further details please see our August 2009 Forecast.)
On 13 August, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Liberia as part of a seven-nation African tour. During talks with Johnson-Sirleaf and an address to the parliament, Clinton commended the country on its progress since the end of its civil war. The US is a key ally of Liberia and Clinton’s visit to the country was seen by some analysts as emphasising US backing for the peace consolidation process in Liberia.
Key Issues
The key issue for the Council in September is renewal of the mandate of UNMIL and, especially, whether to modify it to include electoral elements.
Progress with security sector reform is also a key issue. While there seems to be agreement that UNMIL’s presence remains crucial in maintaining security, particularly for the presidential and legislative elections in 2011, a key question is how large UNMIL’s military contingent needs to be for this purpose.
Regional issues remain important. Liberia’s fragile security situation could be affected (as in the past) by negative developments in neighbouring countries. The situation in Côte d’Ivoire and the recent coup in Guinea have given cause for concern in this regard. Drug trafficking in the subregion of West Africa also threatens to introduce adverse impacts.
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renewing the mandate of UNMIL with modifications to reflect the Secretary-General’s proposals on electoral-assistance tasks and the mission’s third phase drawdown plan;
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renewing the mandate without any modification; and
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not renewing or substantially downsizing UNMIL (very unlikely).
Council Dynamics
At press time, Council members were still studying the Secretary-General’s report, with in-depth discussions on the recommendations yet to start. The general consensus among Council members supports renewing the mandate in view of the shared concerns about the current fragile security situation in the country.
Views have differed in the recent past over the implications for UNMIL’s drawdown. France has favoured a faster troop reduction arguing that the threats to peace in Liberia are of a political, rather than military, nature. The US and African members of the Council have opposed an accelerated process, citing the fragility of the situation as prone to possible relapse into violent conflict. However, the Secretary-General’s proposed third phase drawdown of UNMIL appears to have provided a basis for common ground between Council members.
The US is the lead country on this issue in the Council.
Underlying Problems
Challenges facing the country include security risks resulting from the high unemployment among youth and ex-combatants, the slow pace of security sector reform and the drug menace affecting the West African subregion. The situation has been worsened by the current global financial crisis.
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Selected Security Council Resolutions |
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Selected Secretary-General’s Reports |
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Other |
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Special Representative of the Secretary-General |
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Ellen Margrethe Løj (Denmark) |
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UNMIL Force Commander |
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Lieutenant-General A.T.M Zahirul Alam (Bangladesh) |
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UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost |
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UNMIL: Duration |
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September 2003 to present; mandate expires 30 September 2009 |
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Chairman of the Liberia Sanctions Committee |
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Abdurrahman Mohamed Shalgham (Libya) |
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Panel of Experts on Liberia |
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