October 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 September 2008
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during September included:

Cyprus: On 4 September the Council adopted a presidential statement welcoming the launch of negotiations between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders aimed at the reunification of Cyprus. The Council also reiterated its readiness to support the process. (S/PRST/2008/34)

Liberia: On 9 September the Council was briefed by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Liberia, Ellen Margrethe Løj, on the August report of the Secretary-General regarding progress on benchmarks for the drawdown of UNMIL. At press time, the Council was expected to adopt a resolution on 30 September extending the mandate of UNMIL for another year and possibly endorsing the Secretary-General’s recommendations for adjusting the mission’s troop levels (S/PV.5972). On 10 September the Council’s Sanctions Committee on Liberia removed the name of one individual, Moussa Cisse, from its travel ban and assets freeze lists (SC/9442).

Iran: On 11 September the chairman of the 1737 Sanctions Committee on Iran, Belgian Ambassador Jan Grauls, briefed the Council on the recent activities of the Committee (S/PV. 5973).

On 15 September the IAEA Director General released a report on implementation by Iran of its NPT Safeguards Agreement and Council resolutions 1737, 1747 and 1803. The report found that Iran was making significant progress on developing and operating its centrifuges enriching uranium, and that it continued to resist efforts to address alleged nuclear-weapons work—in particular, it seems that Iran received assistance of foreign expertise (GOV/2008/38).

On 26 September a draft resolution reaffirming Iran’s obligation to implement Council and IAEA resolutions was circulated. It seems that the draft was originally presented by the US to the E3+3. The resolution was sponsored by the E3+3 as well as Belgium, Croatia and Italy. It did not contain new sanctions but reaffirmed all previous Council resolutions and called upon Iran to fully comply. Indonesia and South Africa proposed some amendments to the language regarding an early negotiated solution, and Indonesia proposed reference to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. These changes were agreed and the resolution was adopted unanimously on 27 September (S/RES/1835).

Myanmar: On 11 September Ibrahim Gambari, the Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on Myanmar, briefed the Council in closed session on his 18-23 August trip to Myanmar. Following the briefing, Gambari said that tangible results from the trip fell below expectations and that it was important for the Government of Myanmar to deliver substantive results to key concerns. There was no formal outcome. On 27 September the Secretary-General convened the first high-level meeting of the Group of Friends of the Secretary-General on Myanmar. The members of the Group expressed continued support for the Secretary-General’s Good Offices and encouraged Myanmar to use this channel to address key issues of concern to the international community.

DRC: On 12 September the Council was a briefed on the situation in North and South Kivu. In a press statement (SC/9445) the Council expressed serious concern over the fighting between DRC national armed forces (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo or FARDC) and the rebels belonging to renegade Tutsi General Laurent Nkunda’s Congrès national pour la défense du peuple, or CNDP, and its humanitarian consequences. It stressed that the clashes were in violation of the Actes d’Engagement de Goma, signed by the CNDP and other armed groups in North and South Kivu in January this year. It also recalled that resolution 1794 demanded all illegal armed groups in the eastern part of the DRC, including the Nkunda’s dissident militia, lay down their arms and condemned hostile acts against the UN Mission in the DRC.

Djibouti/Eritrea: On 17 September, the Council was briefed on the border dispute between Ethiopia and Djibouti, and discussed the report of the fact-finding mission that visited the region from 28 July to 6 August (S/2008/602). In the report, the fact-finding mission called the situation “fragile, volatile and urgent.” As the mission did not gain the permission of Eritrean authorities to visit Eritrea, it was only able to obtain Djibouti’s view of events.

Middle East: On 18 September the Council held its monthly briefing followed by consultations on the Middle East. Robert Serry, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, said that bilateral negotiations between Israel and the PLO were continuing. He added that the Palestinian Authority (PA) was making progress in implementing its security plan. The release of 198 Palestinian prisoners on 25 August by Israel was another positive development. However, obstacles to movements remained high across the West Bank. He added that settler violence had intensified and settlement activity was ongoing, contrary to the Geneva Convention and to Israel’s commitments under the road map and the Annapolis process. In Gaza, the ceasefire has continued to hold, but the humanitarian situation remains grim. He emphasised that Hamas’ actions were increasingly divorcing Palestinian institutions from the PA and interrupting basic service delivery. Efforts by Egypt to help reunify Gaza and the West Bank under the authority of the PA were welcomed. Finally, in Lebanon positive developments included the re-establishment of dialogue among all factions, but the continuation of security incidents remained worrying. (S/PV.5974)

Zimbabwe: On 19 September the Council held private consultations on the situation in Zimbabwe. It was briefed during the meeting by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Haile Menkerios on the 15 September agreement on the formation of a government of national unity signed between the major opposing political parties in that country.

Terrorism: The Council adopted a presidential statement on 22 September condemning the 20 September terrorist attack in Islamabad, Pakistan and underlined the need to bring those responsible to justice and urged states to cooperate with the Pakistani authorities in this respect (S/PRST/2008/35). It also issued a press statement on recent terrorist attacks in Spain (SC/9455) and Yemen (SC/9446).

Mediation and Settlement of Disputes: On 23 September the Council convened a high-level meeting on mediation and settlement of disputes, chaired by Blaise Campaoré, president of Burkina Faso and current chairman of ECOWAS. In a presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/36) the Council reaffirmed the UN’s role in mediation efforts and requested a report from the Secretary-General in six months on UN mediation and possible ways to improve it.

Chad/CAR: On 24 September the EU’s High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, presented its mid-term review of the EUFOR operation in Chad and the Central African Republic. The Council unanimously adopted resolution 1834 renewing the mandate of MINURCAT until 15 March 2009. The resolution expresses the Council’s intention to deploy a UN military component to succeed EUFOR on 15 March, and requests the Secretary-General to submit a report by 15 November containing detailed planning in this regard.

OSCE: On 26 September, the OSCE chairman-in-office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb briefed the Council.

Full forecast

 

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