October 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 September 2008
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AMERICAS

Haiti

Expected Council Action
The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), which expires on 15 October. Recent developments in Haiti, in particular the political crisis provoked by food shortages and the humanitarian situation worsened by a series of hurricanes, are likely to impact discussions.

At press time the Group of Friends of Haiti (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Peru, Uruguay and the US) was discussing a draft resolution renewing MINUSTAH’s mandate for one year.

Key Recent Developments
On 12 September, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet briefed the Council on humanitarian issues in Haiti, which had been hit hard by a series of hurricanes. Some Council members are concerned at the consequences for the stabilisation process, especially given the already existing food crisis. The Food and Agricultural Organisation reported that most of the harvests for the current season have been wiped out.

On 5 September, the Haitian parliament approved a new government, ending a five-month impasse after the former government was dismissed in April. The new prime minister, Michèle Pierre-Louis, said that her policy priorities would be food production, job creation, security and the establishment of an environment favourable to investment.

Four consecutive hurricanes caused severe damage in Haiti in August and September. According to local authorities, at least 700 people died and about 800,000 were directly affected out of a population of 9.5 million. Eighty thousand internally displaced persons lack basic needs, such as food, shelter and sanitation. Damage to roads made humanitarian access difficult. (MINUSTAH provided technical and logistical assistance to Haitian authorities for the relief effort.) On 12 September, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator John Holmes urged donors to provide $100 million for the next six months of humanitarian relief.

On 29 August the foreign and defence vice-ministers of the nine Latin American troop-contributing countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay) met in Montevideo. They issued a joint communiqué defining a common position for the renewal of MINUSTAH’s mandate. They recognised that progress had been achieved by MINUSTAH, in particular in elections and security. They emphasised the need for:

  • broadening MINUSTAH’s activities linked to the strengthening of state institutions;
  • initiatives by MINUSTAH in the socioeconomic and development field, including quick-impact projects to tackle the population’s immediate, basic needs;
  • better coordination between the Haitian government, MINUSTAH and the donor community;
  • a minimum level of human development as security gains alone are not sufficient for long term stabilisation; and
  • continued international involvement to allow formation of an environment conducive to socioeconomic development.

On 27 August the Secretary-General published his latest report on MINUSTAH, outlining developments in political and security areas and progress in institutional support, structures for the rule of law, human rights, humanitarian and development activities. He said that the April street demonstrations and subsequent political vacuum during several months were a significant setback in the stabilisation process. He also recommended that MINUSTAH be renewed for one more year.

The Secretary-General also proposed a consolidation plan defining five key areas in which progress is essential for the consolidation of Haiti’s stabilisation:

  • resolution of political differences through dialogue (particularly via enhanced collaboration between the executive and legislative branches);
  • extension of state authority;
  • attainment of an appropriate overall security structure;
  • establishment of an independent and credible judicial and penal system; and
  • measurable progress in socioeconomic development.

Indicators in these areas should help identify a threshold of stability beyond which MINUSTAH could be progressively reduced and ultimately withdrawn.

Options
The Council could simply decide to keep the mandate as it is. Other options include:

  • reinforcing MINUSTAH’s mandate to facilitate humanitarian assistance;
  • emphasising the need for better coordination between development actors and the Haitian government and requesting MINUSTAH to take the lead in this;
  • requesting MINUSTAH to conduct more quick-impact projects;
  • encouraging the Haitian government to do more for national reconciliation and to strengthen consolidation of state institutions;
  • acknowledging that socioeconomic development is an essential component of stabilization in Haiti; and
  • reaffirming MINUSTAH’s mandate to support the political process.

Another option might be to focus strictly on MINUSTAH’s mandate in the resolution but to address the humanitarian and development issues in a separate presidential statement.

Key Issues
A major issue is whether the Council will respond to the deterioration of the situation in Haiti and strengthen MINUSTAH’s role, particularly in terms of its development and humanitarian response; or whether it will limit MINUSTAH’s tasks to those directly related to security.

Another issue is whether to refer to the food crisis and the humanitarian situation in the resolution, including the structural deficiencies in the Haitian state, and why a long-term vision for international involvement is needed.

A Council visit to Haiti remains a possibility in the coming months. Costa Rica, which has the lead, supported a visit in September but, in the absence of a Haitian government, it was postponed.

Council and Wider Dynamics
There is a general concern for the deteriorating situation in Haiti and awareness that events of the last months constitute a setback for the stabilisation process. In particular, concerns about the political and security situation were expressed by China, Italy, France, Burkina Faso, the US and Costa Rica during Mulet’s briefing on 12 September. This has led to some support for postponing action on indicators of progress for future MINUSTAH withdrawal. Likewise, the issue of whether Haiti should be placed on the agenda of the Peacebuilding Commission seems to have receded.

For the Latin American members of the Group of Friends, recent developments highlight the need for the international community and for the UN to do much more on humanitarian and socioeconomic development fronts. They support a stronger development mandate for MINUSTAH. Many members favour reviving the idea of a conference on coordination of development programmes, which had been scheduled for April in Port-au-Prince but was cancelled due to the food crisis. For the US there is a preference for limiting the focus to improving security and reforming state institutions.

Others (including China, South Africa and Indonesia) seem reluctant to have the Council address humanitarian issues in a Chapter VII mandate. They support a strong UN role but believe that other UN agencies are responsible for these tasks.

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UN Documents

Latest Security Council Resolution

  • S/RES/1780 (15 October 2007) renewed MINUSTAH for one year.

Latest Secretary-General’s Report

Latest Press Statement

  • SC/9293 (8 April 2008) welcomed progress achieved in judicial and prison systems’ reform, strongly deplored the 4 April violence, expressed concern at the humanitarian situation and encouraged international donors to strengthen assistance.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of MINUSTAH

Hédi Annabi (Tunisia)

Principal Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Luiz Carlos da Costa (Brazil)

Force Commander

Major General Carlos Alberto Dos Santos Cruz (Brazil)

Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator, UNDP Representative

Joel Boutroue (France)

Size and Composition of Mission

  • Authorised strength as of 15 August 2006: military component of up to 7,200 troops and police component of up to 1,951 officers.
  • Current strength as of 31 July 2008: 9,040 total uniformed personnel, including 7,105 troops and 1,935 police.
  • Contributors of military personnel: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Ecuador, France, Guatemala, Jordan, Nepal, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Sri Lanka, United States and Uruguay.
  • Contributors of police personnel: Argentina, Benin, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, DR Congo, Egypt, El Salvador, France, Grenada, Guinea, Italy, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Turkey, United States, Uruguay and Yemen. 

Cost 

1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $601.58 million

Useful Additional Sources

Full forecast

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