August 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2008
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments in the Council on other issues included:

UNDOF: On 27 June, the Council adopted resolution 1821, which extended the mandate of UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights until 31 December.

Counter-Terrorism (Al-Qaida and Taliban): The Security Council adopted resolution 1822 on June 30, extending for 18 months the mandate of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Implementation Monitoring Team, which analyses the implementation of the travel, financial and arms embargoes for the Committee. The resolution also revised rules for its listing process and asked states to identify information that can be made public on why some 493 individuals and entities were placed on the sanctions list. The resolution also directed the Committee to conduct a review of all names on the list by 30 June 2010.

DPRK (North Korea): The Chair of the 1718 Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ambassador Marcello Spatafora of Italy, briefed the Council on 2 July. (S/2007/778 transmitted the Sanctions Committee’s activities for 2007 to the Council.)

Nepal: On 8 July, the Secretary-General received a letter from the interim government of Nepal requesting the extension of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) for six months but on a smaller scale (S/2008/476). On 18 July, the Council held an open debate (SC/9401) during which it was briefed by the Special Representative on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2008/454). On 23 July, the Council adopted resolution 1825 extending the mandate of UNMIN for six months until 23 January 2009 and endorsing the Secretary-General’s plan for a gradual drawdown and withdrawal of the mission.

Afghanistan: On 9 July, the Council held an open debate (S/PV.5930) during which it was briefed by Kai Eide, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan on the Secretary-General’s special report on the International Conference in Support of Afghanistan (S/2008/434) and by John Holmes, Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, on his June visit to Afghanistan. On 11 July, the Council adopted a presidential statement welcoming the outcome of the Conference and endorsing the key elements in the Paris Declaration. The statement also endorsed the Secretary-General’s recommendations with regard to the need for increased resources for the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and welcomed the mission’s intention to expand its field presence (S/PRST/2008/26).

Rwanda: On 10 July, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1823 to end the prohibition on the supply of arms and weapons for use in Rwanda, contained in resolution 1011 (1995) originally imposed after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, and dissolved the committee tasked with monitoring compliance with the sanctions. The Council also stressed the need for countries in the region to ensure that arms and related materiel delivered to them were not diverted to or used by illegal armed groups, welcomed the entry into force of the Pact on Security, Stability and Development in the Great Lakes Region and emphasised the importance of its full implementation.

Côte d’Ivoire: The Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire or UNOCI (S/2008/451) was submitted to the Council on 10 July 2008. The Council renewed the mandate of UNOCI on 29 July in resolution 1826.

Zimbabwe: On 11 July, the Council failed to adopt a draft sanctions resolution against certain individuals responsible for the political violence in Zimbabwe. Nine Council members (Belgium, Burkina Faso, Costa Rica, Croatia, France, Italy, Panama, UK and US) voted in the affirmative, while five others (China, Vietnam, Libya, Russia and South Africa) voted against the draft text, with one abstention (Indonesia).

Northern Uganda/LRA: During the week of 14 July, the Council deferred issuing a presidential statement on Northern Uganda-LRA that was under discussion after the Special Envoy for LRA affected areas, Joaquim Chissano, briefed the Council on 20 June. The decision not to issue a presidential statement was reportedly made after protracted consultations failed to produce agreement on references to the International Criminal Court in the text of the draft statement.

Chad/Central African Republic: On 15 July, the Council heard a Secretariat briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest progress report on the UN Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT) (S/2008/444). There was no formal outcome.

Children and Armed Conflict: On 17 July, the Council held an open debate (S/PV.5936 and resumption 1) on children and armed conflict. The Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2008/28) condemning equally the six gravest violations against children in conflict identified by the Secretary-General and welcoming the ongoing implementation of the monitoring and reporting mechanism in all situations listed in the annexes to the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2007/757). It also called for additional administrative support for the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict and welcomed its efforts in improving its working methods. Also it reiterated the need for a stronger focus on the long-term effects of armed conflicts on children and the impediments to children’s full rehabilitation and reintegration.

UNOWA: On 18 July, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the United Nations Office for West Africa (UNOWA) briefed the Council in private consultations on the recent report (S/2008/426) of the Secretary-General on UNOWA. No formal decisions were taken.

Georgia: On 21 July, the Council held a private meeting (S/PV.5939) on the situation in Georgia. The meeting was convened at the request of Georgia following the intrusion of a Russian military aircraft into Georgian airspace on 8 July. The Council held consultations on the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) on 29 July, to discuss the latest UNOMIG report (S/2008/480).

Middle East: On 22 July, the Council held its monthly debate on the situation in the Middle East. Briefing the Council, Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe commended the recent formation of a unity government in Lebanon and indirect talks between Syria and Israel. While noting that the ceasefire had held in Gaza, he expressed concern about the situation in the West Bank. Most participants said the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories impeded the peace process. The Israeli representative appealed to the “Arab and Muslim world…to support…moderates and isolate and marginalize…extremists…” (S/PV.5940 and resumption 1). There was no formal outcome.

Cambodia/Thailand: Following UNESCO’s 7 July approval of a Cambodian request to designate the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site in Cambodia, the disputed 11th century temple on the border between Thailand and Cambodia led to a build up of about 4,000 troops from the two states. Cambodia requested an urgent meeting (S/2008/475) of the Council on 21 July. This was postponed on 24 July because both countries are discussing the issue bilaterally.

Myanmar: The Council held consultations on Myanmar on 24 July with the Secretary-General’s Special Advisor Ibrahim Gambari present. In informal comments at the media stakeout afterward, Ambassador Le Luong Minh of Vietnam, Council president for July, noted that the Council reaffirmed its support for the good offices role of the Secretary-General, and wished Gambari success on his upcoming visit to Myanmar.

Kosovo: On 25 July, the Council held an open debate (S/PV.5944) during which it was briefed by Lamberto Zannier, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Kosovo and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). The Council had before it the Secretary-General’s latest report on Kosovo (S/2008/458), which notes that UNMIK’s operating reality has been fundamentally transformed by actions taken both by the authorities in Kosovo and by Kosovo Serbs since Kosovo’s declaration of independence in February. No formal decision was taken.

Ethiopia/Eritrea: On 30 July, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1827, disbanding UNMEE as of 31 July as a result of increased intransigence on the part of both sides to the dispute.

Full forecast

 

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